Handicapping Software JCapper

JCapper

The very best thoroughbred handicapping software available anywhere - at any price.

JCapper Silver
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JCapper Benchmark Testing

General Overview
Presented below are results of some benchmark tests using JCapper to look at the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of some of the factors found in the program.

2012 YTD HDW Numbers Generated from JCapper Silver:
Link to a text file that contains 2012 YTD numbers for a handful of factors generated using the FREE HDW enabled version of JCapper Silver: click here.

Player's Expectation:
Link to a text file that contains numbers showing the player's expectation based on making a flat $2.00 wager on every thoroughbred starter in every thoroughbred race run in North America during calendar years 2011 and 2012: click here.




All older results presented below were derived using JCapper and Bris single format drf data files.

Foundations of Database Handicapping
This Help Doc contains calendar year 2006 Benchmark Tests for many of the newer factors found in JCapper2007 and illustrates how database handicapping can help your game. To read this help doc click here.

Initial Benchmark Tests from Jan-Feb, 2004
During the first two months of 2004, I ran some benchmark tests for quite a few of the factors found in JCapper under a variety of conditions. To see the results of those initial benchmark tests, click here.

Calendar Year 2004 Benchmark Tests
One of the things I did during calendar year 2004 was compile Starter Database Files for each of the following 12 tracks:



During the compilation of these starter database files I made every attempt to include every race card for the entire year for each of the tracks listed above.

JRating vs Bris Prime Power
Here's what I have for the tracks listed above (every race in the Starter Database - all distances, surfaces, and classes) based on a flat $2.00 win bet with no further handicapping whatsoever and no attempt to break ties:

All Odds Ranges -
    By JRating Rank
Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
1 -377.30 16558.00 0.9772 2025 8279 .2446
2 -2754.10 16564.00 0.8337 1422 8282 .1717
3 -3700.10 16526.00 0.7761 1197 8263 .1449

All Odds Ranges -
    By Prime Power Rank
Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
1 -2703.40 16912.00 0.8401 2518 8456 .2978
2 -2271.10 17008.00 0.8665 1698 8504 .1997
3 -2490.70 17122.00 0.8545 1270 8561 .1483




6-1 and up -
    By JRating Rank
Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
1 705.60 4690.00 1.1504 218 2345 .0930
2 -872.70 6774.00 0.8712 248 3387 .0732
3 -2486.60 8260.00 0.6990 232 4130 .0562

6-1 and up -
    By Prime Power Rank
Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
1 -150.70 1288.00 0.8830 58 644 .0901
2 -647.00 4100.00 0.8422 171 2050 .0834
3 -1007.80 7568.00 0.8668 304 3784 .0803




Out of the Box UDMs
Here's a recap based on a flat $2.00 win bet on every horse selected by the two Out of the Box UDMs using JCapper's AProb Odds Line for calendar year 2004 at each of the 12 tracks listed above:

DS_JCapper_OOB -
    with the AProb OL
       
Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 3343.80 3061.70 2839.80
Bet -3160.00 -3160.00 -3160.00
Gain 183.80 -98.30 -320.20
       
Wins 258 513 724
Plays 1580 1580 1580
PCT .1633 .3247 .4582
ROI 1.0582 0.9689 0.8987
Avg Mut 12.96 5.97 3.92
       
       
By Odds Range-
Min Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.50 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
1.00 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
1.50 2.00 -15.00 54.00 0.7222 7 27 .2593
2.00 2.50 -12.10 154.00 0.9214 22 77 .2857
2.50 3.00 -32.40 236.00 0.8627 28 118 .2373
3.00 3.50 -43.10 262.00 0.8355 26 131 .1985
3.50 4.00 -23.20 212.00 0.8906 20 106 .1887
4.00 4.50 -50.60 238.00 0.7874 18 119 .1513
4.50 5.00 56.00 194.00 1.2887 22 97 .2268
5.00 5.50 35.80 186.00 1.1925 18 93 .1935
5.50 6.00 21.80 152.00 1.1434 13 76 .1711
6.00 6.50 55.40 146.00 1.3795 14 73 .1918
6.50 7.00 19.00 134.00 1.1418 10 67 .1493
7.00 7.50 -21.00 120.00 0.8250 6 60 .1000
7.50 8.00 34.60 70.00 1.4943 6 35 .1714
8.00 8.50 18.60 110.00 1.1691 7 55 .1273
8.50 9.00 29.00 78.00 1.3718 6 39 .1538
9.00 9999.00 111.00 814.00 1.1364 35 407 .0860


And, for anyone interested, here's a link to the complete list of plays selected by the UDM using the AProb OL during calendar year 2004: DS_JCapper_OOB.txt




DR_JCapper_OOB -
    with the AProb OL
       
Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 1427.90 1358.70 1235.80
Bet -1260.00 -1260.00 -1260.00
Gain 167.90 98.70 -24.20
       
Wins 106 217 309
Plays 630 630 630
PCT .1683 .3444 .4905
ROI 1.1333 1.0783 0.9808
AvgMut 13.47 6.26 4.00
       
       
       
By Odds Range-
Min Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.50 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
1.00 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
1.50 2.00 -1.60 30.00 0.9467 5 15 .3333
2.00 2.50 -23.90 82.00 0.7085 9 41 .2195
2.50 3.00 -15.30 120.00 0.8725 14 60 .2333
3.00 3.50 9.50 108.00 1.0880 14 54 .2593
3.50 4.00 -4.60 80.00 0.9425 8 40 .2000
4.00 4.50 -13.60 86.00 0.8419 7 43 .1628
4.50 5.00 19.20 60.00 1.3200 7 30 .2333
5.00 5.50 -39.20 76.00 0.4842 3 38 .0789
5.50 6.00 -2.40 70.00 0.9657 5 35 .1429
6.00 6.50 31.60 56.00 1.5643 6 28 .2143
6.50 7.00 -12.80 74.00 0.8270 4 37 .1081
7.00 7.50 5.60 44.00 1.1273 3 22 .1364
7.50 8.00 -28.00 28.00 0.0000 0 14 .0000
8.00 8.50 -9.20 28.00 0.6714 1 14 .0714
8.50 9.00 -6.20 26.00 0.7615 1 13 .0769
9.00 9999.00 258.80 292.00 1.8863 19 146 .1301


And, for anyone interested, here's a link to the complete list of plays selected by the UDM using the AProb OL during calendar year 2004: DR_JCapper_OOB.txt



Assigned Probability
Here is a calendar year 2004 recap for all 12 tracks (over 75,000 starters - every race in the Starter Database - all distances, surfaces, and classes) broken out by Assigned Probability Number. The accuracy of the program's Assigned Probability number in this sample speaks for itself.

By Assigned Probability Number-
               
Min Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
0.00 0.05 -10492.30 27114.00 0.6130 624 13557 .0460
0.05 0.10 -15677.80 55996.00 0.7200 2280 27998 .0814
0.10 0.15 -5087.50 29330.00 0.8265 1983 14665 .1352
0.15 0.20 -2231.80 18412.00 0.8788 1630 9206 .1771
0.20 0.25 -735.50 10138.00 0.9275 1179 5069 .2326
0.25 0.30 -810.70 5704.00 0.8579 747 2852 .2619
0.30 0.35 -268.10 2992.00 0.9104 472 1496 .3155
0.35 0.40 -74.30 1726.00 0.9570 321 863 .3720
0.40 0.45 -18.70 106.00 0.8236 23 53 .4340





Copyright 2005 JCapper Software

Copyright 2008 JCapper Software