$2.00 to WIN, PLACE, and SHOW on every thoroughbred starter in every thoroughbred race run in North America during calendar years 2011 and 2012: query start: 1/16/2013 8:47:27 AM query end: 1/16/2013 8:51:54 AM elapsed time: 267 seconds Data Window Settings: Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb 999 Divisor Odds Cap: None SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY Data Summary Win Place Show ------------------------------------------------- Mutuel Totals 1184181.40 1187791.40 1186915.80 Bet -1574070.00 -1574070.00 -1574070.00 ------------------------------------------------- P/L -389888.60 -386278.60 -387154.20 Wins 100278 199588 292713 Plays 787035 787035 787035 PCT .1274 .2536 .3719 ROI 0.7523 0.7546 0.7540 Avg Mut 11.81 5.95 4.05 Next, the above sample broken out by odds rank and incremental odds ranges: By: Odds Rank Rank P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 -32753.60 205742.00 0.8408 38069 102871 .3701 2.9045 2 -32506.90 196152.00 0.8343 21463 98076 .2188 1.7176 3 -41941.40 195830.00 0.7858 14314 97915 .1462 1.1474 4 -43764.00 196006.00 0.7767 10152 98003 .1036 0.8130 5 -49332.30 193434.00 0.7450 6857 96717 .0709 0.5564 6 -50425.20 181070.00 0.7215 4400 90535 .0486 0.3814 7 -43381.60 149308.00 0.7094 2594 74654 .0347 0.2727 8 -38615.20 109050.00 0.6459 1327 54525 .0243 0.1910 9 -26658.60 72318.00 0.6314 656 36159 .0181 0.1424 10 -18427.40 43936.00 0.5806 286 21968 .0130 0.1022 11 -7002.90 19088.00 0.6331 110 9544 .0115 0.0905 12 -4188.90 9914.00 0.5775 44 4957 .0089 0.0697 13 -431.80 1496.00 0.7114 5 748 .0067 0.0525 14 -426.80 694.00 0.3850 1 347 .0029 0.0226 15 -8.00 8.00 0.0000 0 4 .0000 0.0000 16 -8.00 8.00 0.0000 0 4 .0000 0.0000 17 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000 0.0000 18 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000 19+ -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000 0.0000 By: Odds Range (in 0.5 point increments) >=Min < Max P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0.00 0.50 -1190.00 9396.00 0.8734 3142 4698 .6688 5.2491 0.50 1.00 -5661.50 41780.00 0.8645 10506 20890 .5029 3.9472 1.00 1.50 -9032.50 59508.00 0.8482 11469 29754 .3855 3.0253 1.50 2.00 -11308.90 67280.00 0.8319 10380 33640 .3086 2.4218 2.00 2.50 -11701.30 71506.00 0.8364 9366 35753 .2620 2.0560 2.50 3.00 -11482.80 69046.00 0.8337 7805 34523 .2261 1.7744 3.00 3.50 -11179.70 65208.00 0.8286 6444 32604 .1976 1.5512 3.50 4.00 -11523.90 59522.00 0.8064 5123 29761 .1721 1.3510 4.00 4.50 -11069.10 54480.00 0.7968 4187 27240 .1537 1.2064 4.50 5.00 -8932.90 49330.00 0.8189 3554 24665 .1441 1.1309 5.00 5.50 -9683.20 45346.00 0.7865 2888 22673 .1274 0.9997 5.50 6.00 -9638.10 42144.00 0.7713 2436 21072 .1156 0.9073 6.00 6.50 -6930.80 38826.00 0.8215 2226 19413 .1147 0.9000 6.50 7.00 -6984.40 36580.00 0.8091 1929 18290 .1055 0.8278 7.00 7.50 -6381.30 34050.00 0.8126 1695 17025 .0996 0.7814 7.50 8.00 -5631.00 32040.00 0.8243 1525 16020 .0952 0.7471 8.00 8.50 -6037.80 30032.00 0.7990 1307 15016 .0870 0.6831 8.50 9.00 -5785.60 28490.00 0.7969 1173 14245 .0823 0.6463 9.00 999999.00-239733.80 739506.00 0.6758 13123 369753 .0355 0.2786 By: Odds Range (in 2.5 point increments) >=Min < Max P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0.00 2.50 -38894.20 249470.00 0.8441 44863 124735 .3597 2.8229 2.50 5.00 -54188.40 297586.00 0.8179 27113 148793 .1822 1.4302 5.00 7.50 -39617.80 196946.00 0.7988 11174 98473 .1135 0.8906 7.50 10.00 -28658.00 142432.00 0.7988 5959 71216 .0837 0.6567 10.00 12.50 -25789.30 106062.00 0.7568 3335 53031 .0629 0.4936 12.50 15.00 -20117.60 80196.00 0.7491 2064 40098 .0515 0.4040 15.00 17.50 -14992.20 62674.00 0.7608 1397 31337 .0446 0.3499 17.50 20.00 -12149.00 49988.00 0.7570 966 24994 .0386 0.3033 20.00 22.50 -12618.40 42222.00 0.7011 672 21111 .0318 0.2498 22.50 25.00 -10080.00 36090.00 0.7207 530 18045 .0294 0.2305 25.00 27.50 -9808.90 31536.00 0.6890 401 15768 .0254 0.1996 27.50 30.00 -9047.90 27172.00 0.6670 307 13586 .0226 0.1774 30.00 32.50 -8687.50 24036.00 0.6386 240 12018 .0200 0.1567 32.50 35.00 -8375.80 21646.00 0.6131 194 10823 .0179 0.1407 35.00 37.50 -5884.00 19208.00 0.6937 180 9604 .0187 0.1471 37.50 40.00 -5691.40 17348.00 0.6719 147 8674 .0169 0.1330 40.00 42.50 -6560.90 15704.00 0.5822 109 7852 .0139 0.1090 42.50 45.00 -5789.80 14448.00 0.5993 97 7224 .0134 0.1054 45.00 999999.00 -72937.50 139306.00 0.4764 530 69653 .0076 0.0597 By: Odds Range (in 5 point increments) >=Min < Max P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0.00 5.00 -93082.60 547056.00 0.8298 71976 273528 .2631 2.0653 5.00 10.00 -68275.80 339378.00 0.7988 17133 169689 .1010 0.7924 10.00 15.00 -45906.90 186258.00 0.7535 5399 93129 .0580 0.4550 15.00 20.00 -27141.20 112662.00 0.7591 2363 56331 .0419 0.3292 20.00 25.00 -22698.40 78312.00 0.7102 1202 39156 .0307 0.2409 25.00 30.00 -18856.80 58708.00 0.6788 708 29354 .0241 0.1893 30.00 35.00 -17063.30 45682.00 0.6265 434 22841 .0190 0.1491 35.00 40.00 -11575.40 36556.00 0.6834 327 18278 .0179 0.1404 40.00 45.00 -12350.70 30152.00 0.5904 206 15076 .0137 0.1072 45.00 50.00 -12023.40 24404.00 0.5073 128 12202 .0105 0.0823 50.00 55.00 -9312.00 20336.00 0.5421 103 10168 .0101 0.0795 55.00 60.00 -8175.50 16854.00 0.5149 75 8427 .0089 0.0699 60.00 65.00 -5440.10 13696.00 0.6028 65 6848 .0095 0.0745 65.00 70.00 -6363.40 11414.00 0.4425 37 5707 .0065 0.0509 70.00 75.00 -4153.50 9422.00 0.5592 36 4711 .0076 0.0600 75.00 80.00 -4622.40 8038.00 0.4249 22 4019 .0055 0.0430 80.00 85.00 -3225.10 6722.00 0.5202 21 3361 .0062 0.0490 85.00 90.00 -3175.20 5456.00 0.4180 13 2728 .0048 0.0374 90.00 999999.00 -16446.90 22964.00 0.2838 30 11482 .0026 0.0205 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Novice Player's Expected Return: Assume for the sake of argument that a novice horseplayer is making his or her very first visit to the track. Further assume that our novice horseplayer knows absolutely nothing about handicapping or betting on horses. Q. What is the novice horseplayer's expected rate of return for each $1.00 wagered? A. Until the novice bettor makes the effort to learn about handicapping horses and betting on them, mathematically, his or her selections can not be expected to outperform selections made randomly. The above charts, based on a two year sample of approximately 100k races and 787k starters suggests that the novice horse bettor making random selections can expect long term losses in the neighborhood of 24.77 cents for each $1.00 wagered into the win pool. The above charts also suggest that it is possible to improve that losing expectation through record keeping and study. Note that the novice bettor can cut that losing expectation approximately IN HALF simply by betting on horses that are 1/2 or less in the odds. -jp .