Database Handicapping Software- JCapper Benchmark Testing in JCapper

General Overview
During the first two months of 2004 I ran some benchmark tests of all of the various factors supported by JCapper. These tests included approximately 2100 races from the following tracks: Aqueduct, Laurel, Gulfstream, Oaklawn, Fairgrounds, Golden Gate, Turf Paradise, and Santa Anita. These tests were not meant to be exhaustive. There were other tracks running at the time. Rather, these tests were done to get a general idea of the effectiveness of the factors supported within JCapper and to identify how some of these factors might relate to each other. It was from these tests that the idea of creating the JRating and the Assigned Probability Odds Line first surfaced.

The results of some of these tests, along with a discussion about the test results and the factors involved are shown below.

Benchmark Tests
Dirt Sprints
Factor Amt
Won/Lost
Amt
Bet
ROI to
$1.00

Wins

Plays

Pct
Win Pct
Impact
ROI
Impact
Benchmark (All Horses) -4633.00 21272.00 .7822 1302 10636 .1224 1.0000 1.0000
Recency (=N) -2744.80 9990.00 .7252 543 4995 .1087 .8881 .9271
Recency (=Y) -1908.00 11282.00 .8309 755 5641 .1338 1.0931 1.0623
FormRating ( < 70 ) -2305.10 8006.00 .7121 381 4003 .0952 .7778 .9104
FormRating ( >= 70 ) -2338.70 13266.00 .8237 919 6633 .1385 1.1315 1.0531
Workout Brilliance ( Rank = 1 ) -287.40 2914.00 .9014 261 1457 .1791 1.4633 1.1524
PScore ( < 75 ) -2154.00 6202.00 .6527 459 3101 .1480 1.2092 .8344
PScore ( >= 75 ) -2492.40 15070.00 .8346 841 7535 .1116 .9118 1.0670
CPace ( Rank = 1 ) -351.90 2592.00 .8642 287 1296 .2215 1.8096 1.1048
Sustained Pace ( Rank = 1 ) -421.70 2900.00 .8546 353 1450 .2434 1.9886 1.0926
JRating (Rank=1) +7.00 2594.00 1.0027 348 1297 .2683 2.1920 1.2819
Bris Prime Power (Rank=1) -392.30 2596.00 .8489 410 1298 .3159 2.5801 1.0853
WeightedFigure (Rank=1) -196.00 2592.00 .9244 324 1296 .2500 2.043 1.1818
WeightedFigure (Gap >= 7pts) +68.70 424.00 1.1620 71 212 .3349 2.736 1.4856
Bris Speed Figure Last Race
(Rank=1)
-412.80 2878.00 .8566 389 1439 .2703 2.2083 1.0951
Bris Speed Figure Last Race
(Gap >=7 pts)
-45.60 572.00 .9203 107 286 .3741 3.0564 1.1766
Assigned Probability >= .3000 -17.10 788.00 .9783 146 394 .3706 3.0278 1.2507
Post Time Odds <= 2.33 to 1 -513.60 3008.00 .8293 527 1504 .3504 2.8628 1.0602
UDM = DS_JCapper_OOB +250.40 892.00 1.2807 80 446 .1794 1.4657 1.6373

Benchmark Tests
Dirt Routes
Factor Amt
Won/Lost
Amt
Bet
ROI to
$1.00

Wins

Plays

Pct
Win Pct
Impact
ROI
Impact
Benchmark (All Horses) -2642.30 12630.00 .7908 817 6315 .1294 1.0000 1.0000
Recency (=N) -1145.50 4332.00 .7356 260 2166 .1200 .9274 .9302
Recency (=Y) -1542.70 8298.00 .8141 550 4149 .1326 1.0247 1.0295
FormRating ( < 70 ) -1414.70 4548.00 .6889 212 2274 .0932 .7203 .8711
FormRating ( >= 70 ) -1227.60 8082.00 .8481 605 4041 .1497 1.1569 1.0725
Workout Brilliance ( Rank = 1 ) -83.90 1890.00 .9556 177 945 .1873 1.4475 1.2084
PScore ( < 75 ) -900.40 4798.00 .8123 389 2399 .1622 1.2535 1.0272
PScore ( >= 75 ) -1741.90 7832.00 .7776 428 3916 .1093 .8447 .9833
CPace ( Rank = 1 ) -199.40 1616.00 .8766 155 808 .1918 1.4822 1.1085
Sustained Pace ( Rank = 1 ) -184.80 1758.00 .8949 207 879 .2355 1.8199 1.1316
JRating (Rank=1) -4.50 1616.00 .9972 212 808 .2624 2.0278 1.2610
Bris Prime Power (Rank=1) -168.20 1620.00 .8962 252 810 .3111 2.4042 1.1333
WeightedFigure (Rank=1) -211.70 1624.00 .8696 191 812 .2352 1.8176 1.0997
WeightedFigure (Gap >= 7pts) -13.90 490.00 .9268 30 95 .3158 2.4405 1.1720
Bris Speed Figure Last Race
(Rank=1)
-375.40 1864.00 .7686 233 932 .2500 1.9320 1.0099
Bris Speed Figure Last Race
(Gap >=7 pts)
-9.20 210.00 .9562 41 105 .3905 3.0178 1.2092
Assigned Probability >= .3000 +113.60 474.00 1.2397 89 237 .3755 2.9019 1.5676
Post Time Odds <= 2.33 to 1 -308.30 1894.00 .8372 328 947 .3464 2.6770 1.0587
UDM = DR_JCapper_OOB +60.00 572.00 1.1049 50 286 .1748 1.3509 1.3972



Bris Speed Figure (Last Race)
One factor tested was Bris Speed Figure (Last Race.) This is a very easy factor to identify. It is simply the Last Race Bris Speed Figure. All surfaces and distances were considered. No attempt was made to break any ties.

Dirt Sprints
All Odds Ranges
Bris Speed Figure (Last Race)
Rank Amt
Gain/Loss
Amt
Bet

Roi

Wins

Plays

Pct
1 -412.80 2878.00 .8566 389 1439 .2703
2 -353.30 2698.00 .8691 246 1349 .1824
3 -693.00 2794.00 .7520 173 1397 .1238
4 -1024.00 2694.00 .6196 124 1347 .0921
Totals -2483.90 11064.00 .7755 932 5532 .1685
Win Percent Top 4 Contenders .6686
ROI Top 4 Contenders .7755
Dirt Routes
All Odds Ranges
Bris Speed Figure (Last Race)
Rank Amt
Gain/Loss
Amt
Bet

Roi

Wins

Plays

Pct
1 -375.40 1864.00 .7986 233 932 .2500
2 -227.10 1642.00 .8617 160 821 .1949
3 -305.30 1658.00 .8159 115 829 .1387
4 -319.30 1580.00 .7979 100 790 .1266
Totals -1227.10 6744.00 .8181 608 3372 .1803
Win Percent Top 4 Contenders .7102
ROI Top 4 Contenders .8181


Dirt Sprints
Horses at Odds of   6-1 and higher
Bris Speed Figure (Last Race)
Rank Amt
Gain/Loss
Amt
Bet

Roi

Wins

Plays

Pct
1 -80.40 450 .8213 17 225 .0756
2 -97.40 934.00 .8957 34 467 .0728
3 -339.40 1482.00 7710 50 741 .0675
4 -698.60 1706.00 .5905 40 853 .0469
Totals -1215.80 4572.00 .7341 141 2286 .0617
Win Percent Top 4 Contenders .2628
ROI Top 4 Contenders .7341
Dirt Routes
Horses at Odds of   6-1 and higher
Bris Speed Figure (Last Race)
Rank Amt
Gain/Loss
Amt
Bet

Roi

Wins

Plays

Pct
1 +26.00 240.00 1.1083 13 120 .1083
2 -137.20 522.00 .7372 19 261 .0728
3 -87.20 748.00 .8826 27 374 .0722
4 -239.60 938.00 .7446 29 469 .0618
Totals -438.60 2448.00 .8208 88 1224 .0719
Win Percent Top 4 Contenders .3151
ROI Top 4 Contenders .8208




WeightedFigure
This number represents the performance of a horse's most recent running line. This is a compound number derived using an algorithm where E1, E2, and Late Pace are weighted according to the impacts of historical occurances and are combined into a single number.

Dirt Sprints
All Odds Ranges
WeightedFigure
Rank Amt
Gain/Loss
Amt
Bet

Roi

Wins

Plays

Pct
1 -196.00 2592.00 .9244 324 1296 .2500
2 -265.00 2650.00 .9000 235 1325 .1774
3 -433.40 2736.00 .8416 198 1368 .1447
4 -600.70 2696.00 .7772 152 1348 .1128
Totals -1495.10 10674.00 .8599 909 5337 .1703
Win Percent Top 4 Contenders .6849
ROI Top 4 Contenders .8599
Dirt Routes
All Odds Ranges
WeightedFigure
Rank Amt
Gain/Loss
Amt
Bet

Roi

Wins

Plays

Pct
1 -211.70 1624.00 .8696 191 812 .2352
2 -101.90 1624.00 .9373 165 812 .2032
3 -415.80 1614.00 .7424 119 807 .1475
4 +48.70 1614.00 1.0302 112 807 .1388
Totals -680.70 6476.00 .8949 587 3238 .1813
Win Percent Top 4 Contenders .7247
ROI Top 4 Contenders .8949

Dirt Sprints
Horses at Odds of   6-1 and higher
WeightedFigure
Rank Amt
Gain/Loss
Amt
Bet

Roi

Wins

Plays

Pct
1 +61.80 628.00 1.0984 31 314 .0987
2 +106.20 1010.00 1.1051 40 505 .0792
3 -242.00 1010.00 .8256 42 694 .0605
4 -373.20 1696.00 .7800 49 848 .0578
Totals -447.20 4722.00 .9053 162 2361 .0686
Win Percent Top 4 Contenders .2962
ROI Top 4 Contenders .9053
Dirt Routes
Horses at Odds of   6-1 and higher
WeightedFigure
Rank Amt
Gain/Loss
Amt
Bet

Roi

Wins

Plays

Pct
1 +10.20 364.00 1.0280 17 182 .0934
2 -29.40 590.00 .9502 23 295 .0780
3 -151.80 714.00 .7874 25 357 .0700
4 +202.80 872.00 1.2326 40 436 .0917
Totals +31.80 2540.00 1.0125 105 1270 .0827
Win Percent Top 4 Contenders .3331
ROI Top 4 Contenders 1.0125



Comparing Weighted Figure with Bris Speed Figure (Last Race)
A comparison between the Bris Speed Figure (Last Race) and the JCapper Weighted Figure reveals some interesting information.

First, horses with the highest Bris Speed Figure (Last Race) won a slighly higher percentage of races than horses with the highest JCapper Weighted Figure.

Despite this, horses with the highest JCapper Weighted Figure returned more money than did horses with the highest Bris Speed Figure (Last Race).

Also, the top 4 ranked horses in JCapper Weighted Figure outperformed the top 4 rated horses in Bris Speed Figure (Last Race) in both of the following categories: Win Percentage for the Top 4 Contenders and ROI for the Top 4 Contenders. This was true for both Dirt Sprints and Dirt Routes without consideration of odds ranges. More importantly, this was also true for horses that were sent to post at odds of 6-1 and higher.

What might this mean? To the profit minded player it might mean that the potential for profit is greater using the JCapper Weighted Figure than it might be using the Bris Last Race Speed Figure.

Why might this be so? The past several years have seen a huge proliferation of players who get their handicapping information online. More and more players these days are using handicapping software as a tool in their wagering decision making process. The Bris Last Race Speed Figure is something that is seen and used by thousands of players every day. Yet the JCapper Weighted Figure is only seen by a small handful of players each day. It has predictive utility that parallels the Bris Speed Figure (Last Race.) The JCapper Weighted Figure is a unique number. As such, perhaps it is different enough from the speed figures seen and used by the majority of other players that it just might be useful to the profit minded player.

It is inherently easier to create profitable wagering models based on unique numbers such as the JCapper Weighted Figure than trying to do so using numbers available to the vast majority of players such as the Bris Speed Figure (Last Race.) Weighted Figure is certainly not a magic bullet, nor is it the strongest factor in JCapper. But, consider this: In Dirt Sprints, the top two ranked horses using this factor were profitable at odds of 6-1 and higher. In Dirt Routes, the top four ranked horses using this factor when taken as a group were profitable at odds of 6-1 and higher.

A player could use the Database and Modeling Tools in JCapper to analyze the top two Weighted Figure horses at 6-1 and higher in dirt sprints and the top four Weighted Figure horses at 6-1 and higher in dirt routes. Undesirable horses within these sets could be identified and removed from further consideration. It is very likely that the set of remaining horses could form a basis for profitable play. A user doing this might create several profitable User Defined Models using Weighted Figure as a starting point.



Bris Prime Power
This number is produced by Bloodstock Research and is read by JCapper directly from the Bris DRF Single Format data file. Although not profitable on its own, this number does have some predictive utility. Here is how Bris Prime Power fared during the Benchmark Testing Period:

Dirt Sprints
All Odds Ranges
PrimePwr
Rank Amt
Gain/Loss
Amt
Bet

Roi

Wins

Plays

Pct
1 - 392.30 2596.00 .8489 410 1298 .3159
2 - 416.50 2634.00 .8419 266 1317 .2020
3 - 50.20 2728.00 .9816 214 1364 .1569
4 - 614.00 2692.00 .7719 124 1346 .0921
Totals - 1473.00 10650.00 .8617 1014 5325 .1904
Win Percent Top 4 Contenders .7669
ROI Top 4 Contenders .8617
Dirt Routes
All Odds Ranges
PrimePwr
Rank Amt
Gain/Loss
Amt
Bet

Roi

Wins

Plays

Pct
1 - 168.20 1620.00 .8962 252 810 .3111
2 - 555.80 1612.00 .6552 137 806 .1700
3 - 152.20 1620.00 .9060 144 810 .1778
4 - 311.70 1614.00 .8069 95 807 .1177
Totals - 1187.90 6466.00 .8163 628 3233 .1943
Win Percent Top 4 Contenders .7766
ROI Top 4 Contenders .8163

Dirt Sprints
Horses at Odds of   6-1 and higher
PrimePwr
Rank Amt
Gain/Loss
Amt
Bet

Roi

Wins

Plays

Pct
1 - 12.80 124.00 .8968 6 62 .0968
2 - 47.00 534.00 .9120 23 267 .0861
3 + 102.60 1236.00 1.0830 59 618 .0955
4 - 258.40 1718.00 .8496 59 859 .0867
Totals - 215.60 3612.00 .9403 147 1806 .0814
Win Percent Top 4 Contenders .3471
ROI Top 4 Contenders .9403
Dirt Routes
Horses at Odds of   6-1 and higher
PrimePwr
Rank Amt
Gain/Loss
Amt
Bet

Roi

Wins

Plays

Pct
1 + 25.20 82.00 1.3073 6 41 .1463
2 - 121.80 284.00 .5711 9 142 .0634
3 - 41.40 572.00 .9276 28 286 .0979
4 - 138.20 900.00 .8464 36 450 .0800
Totals - 276.20 1841.00 .8500 79 1270 .0860
Win Percent Top 4 Contenders .3876
ROI Top 4 Contenders .8500





JRating
JRating is produced by a JCapper algorithm using many factors weighted according to the impacts of historical occurances. It has both predictive utility and good profit potential. Here is how JRating fared during the Benchmark Testing Period:

Dirt Sprints
All Odds Ranges
JRating
Rank Amt
Gain/Loss
Amt
Bet

Roi

Wins

Plays

Pct
1 + 7.00 2594.00 1.0027 348 1297 .2683
2 - 250.10 2590 .9034 239 1295 .1846
3 - 544.20 2600.00 .7907 175 1300 .1346
4 - 495.70 2584.00 .8082 158 1292 .1223
Totals - 1282.90 10368.00 .8763 920 5184 .1775
Win Percent Top 4 Contenders .7098
ROI Top 4 Contenders .8763
Dirt Routes
All Odds Ranges
JRating
Rank Amt
Gain/Loss
Amt
Bet

Roi

Wins

Plays

Pct
1 - 4.50 1616.00 .9972 212 808 .2624
2 - 118.70 1616.00 .9265 159 808 .1968
3 - 380.10 1616.00 .7648 118 808 .1460
4 - 230.90 1616.00 .8571 103 808 .1275
Totals - 734.20 6464.00 .8864 592 3232 .1832
Win Percent Top 4 Contenders .7327
ROI Top 4 Contenders .8864

Dirt Sprints
Horses at Odds of   6-1 and higher
JRating
Rank Amt
Gain/Loss
Amt
Bet

Roi

Wins

Plays

Pct
1 + 156.80 572.00 1.2741 30 286 .1049
2 + 24.40 952.00 1.0256 38 476 .0798
3 - 154.80 1236.00 .8748 41 618 .0663
4 - 326.60 1542.00 .7882 45 771 .0584
Totals - 300.20 4302.00 .9302 154 2151 .0716
Win Percent Top 4 Contenders .3094
ROI Top 4 Contenders .9302
Dirt Routes
Horses at Odds of   6-1 and higher
JRating
Rank Amt
Gain/Loss
Amt
Bet

Roi

Wins

Plays

Pct
1 + 33.80 422.00 1.0801 22 211 .1043
2 + 26.60 522.00 1.0510 22 261 .0843
3 - 98.00 674.00 .8546 22 337 .0653
4 - 78.60 898.00 .9125 34 449 .0757
Totals - 116.20 2516.00 .9538 100 1258 .0795
Win Percent Top 4 Contenders .3296
ROI Top 4 Contenders .9538

Copyright 2005 JCapper Software