JCapper Message Board
|| OUT OF THE BOX
|Hi, all, I'm wondering hpw many Jcapper user use this software out of he box as it were, meaning you don't use a UDM and out of the box what factors do you deem important. And how are you doing? My best to you all.|
Not sure if you are a new user or not, and by out of the box do you mean just use the built in UPR rating or UPRMLprob rating?.
I am now a 2 year user and i really dont bet a lot i more view it as a hobby where the data analysis is somewhere i can escape to and play around.
My suggestions run a total database key factors report first, look at the top ones. Pick a few(three or four) then create a UDM for each with the rank as one. Next run them as distance and surface, refine the UDM's, then by track, refine again, note where they have not worked, dont just use ranks, pay attention to gaps aswell. I dont know the size of your database, there is an ability to look by month (if your database covers more than one year, you can use the Menu option to limit the year so months dont overlap).
See how consistent it is, pay attention to dips, break them out by track, maybe something changed. This is a big beautiful puzzle if you approach it correctly, I have 374 inactive UDMS after two years and 21 active and I'm still not there. Also the HTML report is very useful, i run CALC Races typically for Saturdays (since if i play/go thats the day)and then bring up the past performances for times where i see a losing streak, it takes time but i get to relate the calculated numbers to the past performances which also teaches you.
Anyway my two cents, best of luck to you.
|Thanks, Tony. What I mean is just using the factors in the report without benefit of a database. I'm tking a trial, so don't have a database. I'm looking at Cpace, Wfig, and JPR.|
|Hi, I dont know of any single factor like CPACE etc that alone without any other considerations like surface, distance, track, age of horse, racing experience (races run ), surface condition, field size , the list can go on and on, thats profitable on its own.|
With that said CPACE is a good factor.
|Thanks again, Tony. I'll continue to check, absent a database.|
|I think you can get started with the 45 days to get you started with a HDW subscription.|
Best of luck.
|Right now I prefer Bris because I only do 1-2 tracks a day. I have time though, to decide one way or another. Thanks so much, Tony, for your input. I appreciate it. I'd like to hear though, how much profitability you all have using the database approach. I was a Sartin follower, and I know he didn't believe in large databases.|
But I'm willing to listen to all arguments for and against.
The reason the factors we use are so good, is Jeff spent years developing them, with a data base, and many years have gone by, and yet there is predictive value, but like anything, research is still required, because every one has their own comfort zone. But with good effort, almost all can find value, of some sort. This is a very satisfying program. Lots of fun!! Enjoy!!!
|Thanks, Calvin. Yes, so far I've hit a few longshots with a couple of the factors in the reports. Still looking for a way to be a little more consistent.|