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jager fury
2/16/2017
6:15:07 PM
I have some time off and dusted off Jcapper to see if it could aid me in making my preferred wagers; exacta betting.

Now the answer may be don't bother, or it won't work for you here in the short run but;

How would you go about using jcapper to wager on horses if you haven't used it in a while and don't have a database to work off of? Are you stuck first accumulating data before you can even begin to model some UDM's?

In the past I used TSN data cause I could build a large database with their subscription model allowing unlimited downloads for a pretty cheap price. Those days are apparently gone.



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jeff
2/17/2017
10:48:37 AM
I would say you're really handicapping yourself if you plan to operate without ANY data.

That said, if you only have two months - and if you want to take a shot while operating with minimal data:

Keep things simple and pick a single meet.

The AQU inner for instance.

It has the advantage of having only one surface.




I would also say get yourself a monthly HDW data subscription.

You get 45 days of back data from the day you sign up. That should be plenty of data for you to get a handle on the current meet of your choice.

With HDW there are no long term contracts and you are never under any obligation to continue downloading.

Once you stop downloading when your two months are up they will stop billing you.

Because you're already a registered JCapper Platinum program owner - your HDW data subscription also gets you the most current version of JCapper Platinum (meaning you won't have to pay the $225.00 program update fee that I've been charging.)

Ok. Stepping down from my soapbox now.




From there, break the races out into two groups:


  1. sprints

  2. routes


Then run a Key Factors report for each group - to see what has been working well for each group.

Right now as I type this - using HDW data - early speed based factors such as CPace, EarlyConsensus, CompoundE1, CompoundE2, and CFA, etc. are outperforming for sprints.

While JPR, PaceFit, and Sustained Pace are outperforming for routes.

Here's a link to a JCapper Key Factors Report that I ran a couple of minutes ago that shows routes at the AQU inner ytd for 2017:
http://www.JCapper.com/messageboard/reports/Impact_Study_AQU-Inner-Routes-ytd2017.txt

Keep in mind there is no guarantee whatsoever the same factors will continue to outperform in their distance categories for the next several weeks.

The things that cause them to outperform in the first place like weather, track maintenance, and constant adjustments being made by the other players, etc. are always subject to change.

But without data you're really handicapping yourself.

With a limited amount of data - you can get at least glean some insights for the current meet of your choice.


-jp

.





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jager fury
2/17/2017
6:23:41 PM
Thanks for the reply Jeff.

The Platinum version I enjoy with the live tote feature gets me a step up from a free brisnet PP from Twin Spires.

I will most likely leverage the JPR rating for Exacta overlays. Of course your advice is most accurate and will use it when I have more money and more time. Your JPR rating already nailed the #7 in the seventh at AQU today for an $84.00 Exacta.

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