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joe_muller
11/30/2016
11:32:05 PM
It's crazy, but I just realized I don't really know what the definition is for the factors listed in the "impact" column of the results table when you run a UDM in the data window? Is it betting pool impact value? what's the calculation? I've looked around the message board and training materials but can't find it.

Thanks,
Joe M.

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jeff
12/1/2016
5:55:02 PM
Impact value is simply win rate for the data point being examined divided by win rate for the total sample.

Example - the following cut and paste from the Data Window shows the month of Nov, 2016 with the data broken out by odds rank:

query start: 12/1/2016 3:41:56 PM
query end: 12/1/2016 3:42:08 PM
elapsed time: 12 seconds
`
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide
`
SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE [DATE] >= #11-01-2016#
AND [DATE] <= #11-30-2016#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE
`
`
Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 36247.40 37021.50 36806.80
Bet -48712.00 -48712.00 -48712.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L -12464.60 -11690.50 -11905.20
`
Wins 2965 5910 8722
Plays 24356 24356 24356
PCT .1217 .2427 .3581
`
ROI 0.7441 0.7600 0.7556
Avg Mut 12.23 6.26 4.22
`
`
By: Odds Rank
'
Rank P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
1 -781.70 6060.00 0.8710 1148 3030 .3789 3.1123
2 -1070.40 5842.00 0.8168 615 2921 .2105 1.7295
3 -1193.40 5782.00 0.7936 414 2891 .1432 1.1763
4 -1380.30 5786.00 0.7614 287 2893 .0992 0.8149
5 -1627.70 5764.00 0.7176 196 2882 .0680 0.5587
6 -1841.20 5522.00 0.6666 124 2761 .0449 0.3689
7 -1454.50 4748.00 0.6937 87 2374 .0366 0.3010
8 -752.10 3672.00 0.7952 52 1836 .0283 0.2327
9 -498.30 2574.00 0.8064 30 1287 .0233 0.1915
10 -703.60 1618.00 0.5651 10 809 .0124 0.1015
11 -720.80 790.00 0.0876 1 395 .0025 0.0208
12 -328.60 442.00 0.2566 1 221 .0045 0.0372
13 -72.00 72.00 0.0000 0 36 .0000 0.0000
14 -40.00 40.00 0.0000 0 20 .0000 0.0000



Win rate for post time favorites is 0.378878.

Win rate for the total sample is 0.12173591.

Impact value for post time favorites is 3.1123

or:

IV = 0.378878 / 0.12173591


-jp

.


~Edited by: jeff  on:  12/1/2016  at:  5:55:02 PM~

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joe_muller
12/2/2016
10:51:15 AM
Thanks Jeff!

Joe

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