In this age of exotics, is the win pool the best way to identify the public's favorite? Does anyone use anything to factor in what is being bet in the other pools? Is there a mathematical way to figure out total dollars bet across all the pools.
Me personally? I use the win pool and let it go at that.
I know a handful of players who use double, pick3, and pick4 will pays (when applicable) in addition to the win pool. They tell me doing it that way gives them an accurate idea of who the favorite is going to be earlier than using the win pool by itself.
I know some players in Canada who want to know not just who the favorite in the win pool is going to be - but what final win pool odds are going to be as well.
They use Betfair.
Consider two scenarios:
A. Suppose for the sake of argument a horse is the 5/2 favorite in the win pool at 3 mtp - and at 3 mtp that same horse is trading on Betfair at 8/5.
B. Suppose for the sake of argument a horse is the 9/2 third choice in the win pool at 3 mtp - and at 3 mtp that same horse is trading on Betfair at 6/1.
Given the above - where do you think each horse is going to end up in the win pool when things are all said and done?
If you guessed 8/5 on the first horse and 6/1 on the second horse go to the head of the class.
My Canadian friends tell me it's uncanny how often late money causes win pool odds to end up in line with the prices being offered on Betfair.