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By Is There a Correlation ?
rosenowsr
12/29/2013
8:15:33 AM
Let's say you have a single factor that shows a hit rate of 24% for win and 44% for place and 60% for show. Does that also mean that the top 3 choices(of that single factor) will have a win hit rate of 60%??

I hope this makes sense.

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jeff
12/30/2013
10:22:59 AM
No. It doesn't mean that. (They are two separate things actually.)

A. If you run rank=1 for a single factor through the Data Window - the top part of the results set that comes back (the data in the W-P-S columns) tells you the number of rank=1 starters for the single factor that you ran, the number of those rank=1 starters that "won", the number of those starters that finished 2nd, the number of those starters that finished 3rd, and the corresponding pct and roi for each position.

B. If you run an ALL button query for the same factor - but this time break the data out by rank for that factor - the results set displayed in the bottom portion of the data (the separate rows for ranks 1-19) show you number of starters, number of winners (horses that finished 1st), win pct, and flat win bet roi for the rank associated with each row. From that it is possible to see number of starters/win rate/and roi for the top 3 (or top4, or top 5) for that factor.

From there, if you wanted to see a data distribution for say rank=2 for that factor - you would run a rank=2 query for that factor through the Data Window while breaking the data out BY FINISH POSITION. The results set that comes back will show you the data distribution for rank=2 starters for each possible finish position (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, etc.)

A. and B. (above) are two separate things.

Hope I managed to type most of that out in a way that makes sense.


-jp

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