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Windoor
12/24/2013
9:51:23 PM
Low Hit , High Odd.


The new year is almost upon us, and as usual I revamped my play list for the upcoming year. ( I am a spot/angle player with many variations)

I attempted a play last year that had a very low hit rate, but at an outrageous odd accordingly to my UDM.

It did quite well the first quarter of 2013, but ultimately failed in the 2nd and 3rd quarter.

I stopped playing it only to find it did quite well in the fourth quarter.

I'm going to try again this year with a few tweaks and stop playing in May to pick up again in September.

My average win percent runs from a low or 16 to a high of 21.

Does anyone else play at these low hit rates?

Merry Christmas to all and a happy New Year.

Windoor


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Caveat
12/25/2013
10:18:12 AM

same to you sir...


In response to your question...

Does it really matter about win % or a positive ROI ??

I believe win % goes hand in hand with AVG price..

The 16-18 % UDM's I get avg around $6-7 dollar range and a almost break even ROI

The higher price horses come in at about 6-7 % range

Wouldn't be great to have a 28-30% win % and a ROI in the 1.30 range.:)

Just my opinion

Mike

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Windoor
12/25/2013
5:18:35 PM

--quote:
"Does it really matter about win % or a positive ROI ??"
--end quote


Mathematically no. A ten percent hit hate can produce a positive ROI if the average odd or payout is above 10 to 1.

It's the very long losing steaks that occur with low hit rates that make them undesirable. That and the average odds tend to fluctuate wildly from year to year the higher they are. At least, this is what my data tells me.

I was just wondering if anyone else has had success down in the low hit percentage range.

I have never (until 2013) played a UDM / Spot play that did not have at least a 22% hit rate, and have remained pretty steady at 27% overall, year in and year out

As the odds continue to drop for me with the plays I have, it gets harder to maintain a profit year after year. This year being the worst since 2008.

I am constantly testing ideas based on horses that the public routinely overlooks. Sometimes I can find something, most times its long hours of research with nothing to show for it.

Waiting on 2014: I'm always optimistic at the start of a new year.

I have my "Seven", The bank is pre-paid for the 1st four months, I'm done with the tweaking. I can only hope for better results than last year, and maybe as good as 2009. A banner last quarter that exceeded expectations.

Windoor


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jeff
12/28/2013
10:13:55 AM

--quote:
"I attempted a play last year that had a very low hit rate, but at an outrageous odd accordingly to my UDM.

It did quite well the first quarter of 2013, but ultimately failed in the 2nd and 3rd quarter.

I stopped playing it only to find it did quite well in the fourth quarter."
--end quote

I've had similar experiences - and wrote about it at length in the following thread titled Variance Swings and the Law of Large Numbers:
http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard/TopicReader.asp?topic=1544&forum=General





--quote:
"Does anyone else play at these low hit rates?"
--end quote

I play at those hit rates - and lower. (Way lower - if you consider exotics.)





--quote:
"It's the very long losing steaks that occur with low hit rates that make them undesirable. That and the average odds tend to fluctuate wildly from year to year the higher they are. At least, this is what my data tells me.

I was just wondering if anyone else has had success down in the low hit percentage range."
--end quote


Low hit rate - high odds - periods of run outs longer than we care for - followed by short clusters of bonanza payoffs...

That's the reality we as players have to deal with.

In my opinion dealing with that reality successfully comes down to money management - specifically bet sizing commensurate with risk/expected returns/and expected hit rate.

Here's a thread in the private section of the board where I've posted some thoughts on that:
http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard/TopicReader.asp?topic=1544&forum=General

Here's a quote from one my posts in that thread:


--quote:
"I'm not quite done yet...

I wanted to post some of my own thoughts about bet sizing based on odds and edge.

FYI, the act of writing about this stuff causes me to think clearly about it. I find that this sharpens my focus when I implement the very things I have written about during live play.

If I take any of my primary UDMs and run them through the Data Window with the data broken out by odds range, the results set that gets displayed shows win pct and roi (edge) at various incremental odds ranges.

Armed with that info, I am able to estimate my edge and make bet sizing decisions based on what I think final odds will be. (Although accurate estimation of final odds is problematic for reasons posted above.)

FYI, it's worth noting that when I break UDM data out by incremental odds ranges I don't do it with just the program defaults. When I use just the program defaults, often there aren't enough starters in the UDM sample and the roi data for individual incremental odds rows scatters all over the place. Instead of the defaults, I'll look at the data using wider odds increments... 1 point, 2.5 points, 5 points, etc. until I get enough data in most of the rows that the roi is somewhat consistent (or "smoothed") from one row to the next.

I find that when roi presented in the incremental odds range rows is smoother - that gives me a better idea as to my actual edge given the odds. (From there I am in a much better position to make bet sizing decisions.)"
--end quote



-jp

.








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Windoor
12/29/2013
1:40:29 PM
Jeff,

That was a very interesting read.

Your UDM very closely mimics my own numbers in terms of odds and hit rate, along with the disappointing results when going to live play. Still, I think there is indeed something there worth pursuing.

I once posted such a play on Pace Advantage, and took quite a bit of heat for doing so.

I used an arbitrary $200 flat win wager, (should have used $2.00) which returned some outrageous numbers, that on the surface looked quite unbelievable.

In fact, the one I played this past year closely follows the same UDM.

If I take the first four months and the last four months of 2013 it becomes quite profitable. If I also limited the amount of tracks I play it at, it also shows a profit over the last three years (same tracks and time period) that I have a database for. The final ROI does vary quite a bit.

Certainly worth a try this year I think.

Money Management:

Maybe I need to look at it again. But,

I have tried many things over the years and have found nothing that works as well as a flat bet for me. If nothing else, it is very predictable, and I like that.

Some are designed to build a bank quickly (Kelly?), some are odds based only. I have also tried the dreaded progression with stop gates for high objectives. This "almost" worked with a very high hit UDM. Even high hit rates gets a long losing streak eventually.

There may be some advantage in proper money management, but I have not been unable to make any of them work for me. It is imperative to me to get full value when/if I hit a long odd horse.

My bank(s) are pre-funded before a course of action is taken. I have no need to increase or decrease the wager amount based on the bank balance. I already know about how many plays to expect, and approximately 60% of all expected wagers are fully funded for each spot play for a given time period before I start. The time to increase the wager, for me, is at the same time next year when I start over with the same play.

If a bank drawn down reaches 50 units, I will do a complete review to try to understand what went wrong. If it's a new play, I'll usually stop it and make some tweaks or throw it out. If it is an older, established play, I'll just let it run and hope it turns around before the bank goes bust.

An emerging pattern is that some years certain plays and tracks under perform while others over perform. This may just be what is required ( a perfect balance) to remain profitable year in and year out. Time will tell.

Thanks for the reply,

Windoor.


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