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By GEICO BREEDERS' CUP TURF SPRINT
JustRalph
10/29/2013
1:43:35 AM
Race Volatility

324

Using Bris Data

What a race..........

Reply
Charli125
10/29/2013
11:28:11 AM
No HDW files up yet, but we should use this thread to talk about the race. Once they're up I'll post thoughts.

Reply
jeff
10/29/2013
2:17:40 PM
The special BC issue of the HANA Monthly PDF newsletter is now out:
http://horseplayersassociation.org/hanamonthly.html

Tons of good stuff in there including stats that I ran using a JCapper database spanning the last 4 years of BC graded stakes races. (Scroll to the very last section of the PDF for those.)

BC is different than a typical Fri-Sat because of the giant fields where contention runs deep - resulting in massive public interest and casual money finding its way into the pools.

This creates a special situation where overlay potential exists for backing solid opinions based on minimal handicapping.

In my opinion, these two Data Window queries from the HANA pdf are telling:


By: Morning Line Rank
`
Rank P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
1 -57.80 120.00 0.5183 12 60 .2000 2.2067
2 -6.60 150.00 0.9560 12 75 .1600 1.7653
3 -108.80 140.00 0.2229 3 70 .0429 0.4729
`
4 22.00 116.00 1.1897 7 58 .1207 1.3316
5 39.00 132.00 1.2955 7 66 .1061 1.1702
6 59.00 146.00 1.4041 6 73 .0822 0.9068
7 22.20 134.00 1.1657 4 67 .0597 0.6587
8 -34.00 82.00 0.5854 2 41 .0488 0.5382
9 -20.00 114.00 0.8246 1 57 .0175 0.1936
10 71.40 66.00 2.0818 3 33 .0909 1.0030
11 47.20 46.00 2.0261 2 23 .0870 0.9594
12 81.60 50.00 2.6320 1 25 .0400 0.4413
13 -22.00 22.00 0.0000 0 11 .0000 0.0000
14 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000 0.0000
`
`
`
`
By: Odds Rank
`
Rank P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
1 -40.20 126.00 0.6810 15 63 .2381 2.6270
2 -58.80 114.00 0.4842 6 57 .1053 1.1614
3 -50.80 120.00 0.5767 5 60 .0833 0.9194
`
4 15.40 120.00 1.1283 8 60 .1333 1.4711
5 -9.00 120.00 0.9250 6 60 .1000 1.1033
6 -15.60 124.00 0.8742 4 62 .0645 0.7118
7 -5.60 112.00 0.9500 4 56 .0714 0.7881
8 138.00 114.00 2.2105 6 57 .1053 1.1614
9 -65.60 102.00 0.3569 1 51 .0196 0.2163
10 10.00 84.00 1.1190 1 42 .0238 0.2627
11 72.40 76.00 1.9526 2 38 .0526 0.5807
12 19.40 58.00 1.3345 1 29 .0345 0.3805
13 99.60 32.00 4.1125 1 16 .0625 0.6896
14 -22.00 22.00 0.0000 0 11 .0000 0.0000
15 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
16 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
17 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
18 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
19 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000



PS. I just got off the phone with Ron Tiller at HDW. The BC files should be up shortly.


-jp

.



Reply
Charli125
10/29/2013
4:44:54 PM
Files are up!

At first glance, You have to look closely at the 13 horse. cutting back in distance, coming from WOX, foreign horse, didn't win last out, top cpace, top JPR, top UPR(unique to me of course), top Power consensus, good form consensus, good pedigree rating.

Wish he was starting further inside, but is the lone E type in the race.

Reply
JustRalph
10/30/2013
11:36:23 PM
Jeff, the downhill turf stuff you posted is great stuff........

Thanks very much. I found my way to a couple of good UDM's. I know it's early in the meet, but they seem very promising.

I hate that damn course. This should help me out a ton.



Reply
pdavid6
10/31/2013
6:10:13 PM
I wouldn't worry about the post position being outside as that is actually better on the downhill turf sprint where the first turn is actually a right turn which can be very beneficial for a E speed type to get position before heading into the next left turn, so l like the post position in this case.

Reply
JustRalph
10/31/2013
7:15:15 PM
pdavid........

you going to participate in the hangout?



Reply
pdavid6
11/1/2013
10:41:57 AM
Sorry, I tried to make it however I got tied up with some Halloween plans that sucked.

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