Database Handicapping Software- JCapper

JCapper Message Board

          General Discussion
                      -- Fishing Trip

Home Register
Log In
By Fishing Trip
jeff
9/18/2013
5:44:25 PM
Traveling to AZ tonight 9/18/2013 to visit family and then on to AZ's White Mountains for some camping/flyfishing.

Planned date of return is 10/01/2013.

Access to email/internet will be intermittent.

If you have some emergency the best way to reach me is to call my cell phone and leave a voicemail. (I will get back to you, cell signal permitting.)

8 5 8 . 8 6 9 . 7 2 6 9


-jp

.




Reply
JustRalph
9/18/2013
10:18:05 PM
be careful........ what the hell would we do without you.......

LOL


Have fun!

Reply
Cole
9/19/2013
7:18:31 AM
Have a great time Jeff. You deserve it.

Reply
jeff
9/28/2013
2:57:23 PM
Arrived in the Phoenix area this afternoon after a week "unplugged" (for the most part) from the outside world.

Mission accomplished. (Batteries recharged.)


-jp

.

Reply
Caveat
9/28/2013
9:19:04 PM
Welcome back , Jeff

Just thinking, do you go back on the days you didn't play to see how you would have done?

Mike

Reply
jeff
9/30/2013
10:53:04 AM
Short answer: No.

Long answer:

I try to evaluate UDM performance in a big picture way.

To my way of thinking, win pct and roi over time spans of at least several months have meaning and are worth looking at.

Also, to my way of thinking, emotion has little or no place in horse race betting.

I would argue that a tie in exists between the length of time spans used by the player to evaluate wager history and the player's emotional state.

Racing data has a lot of short term swings... ups and downs, etc.

Dwelling on short term performance can lead to irrational decision making when it comes to bet sizing, activating/deactivating UDMs, etc.

Here's a link to a thread from a few months ago that might help illustrate what I am talking about...

Variance swings and the law of large numbers:
http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard/TopicReader.asp?topic=1544&forum=General



-jp

.

~Edited by: jeff  on:  9/30/2013  at:  10:53:04 AM~

Reply
jeff
10/3/2013
2:38:55 PM
Late flight and arrived home last night.

First order of business this morning: walk down to the beach and gawk at the ocean.

Good to be back at it again.


-jp

.

Reply
Reply

Copyright 2018 JCapper Software              back to the JCapper Message Board              www.JCapper.com