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| By | Early races on card v. late | |
| busseb 3/15/2011 2:13:05 PM | Has anybody every studied how early races on the card fare versus late races? I know the race volatility number is supposed to give you the ability to know when a races is more likely to be run according to your numbers, but I haven't figured out how to consistently make it work. For betting purposes, I would assume that racing secretaries want their more contentious races run late to increase handle and try to get carryovers. Early versus late? Any thoughts? ElPaso
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| dimesguy 5/10/2011 11:15:44 PM | I'm new to JCapper (tonight) and too tired to start using the program yet. Saw your subject that touched a personal nerve. Much research (with my handicapping results) told me to, with few exceptions, pass the first 3-4 races on most cards. In other words, most of my profits have come from the last 5-6 races on the cards. Why? Most of the early races are cheap (-er) maidens and claimers ("junk races" to me), hardest to handicap. Except on the special race days, the better, more predictable animals run in the late races. May not work for you, but it does for me. Horse be with you.
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| JimG 5/11/2011 8:26:02 AM | If you are using udm's to shape your bets, it should not matter if the race is early or late on the card. If it passes your criteria for a bet, then it is a bet. Otherwise pass. If you are just handicapping using pp's or html report, then predictability brings with it lower prices and makes it very hard to win at this game. Highly predictable races will usually eat you alive long term due to the takeout. It's endeavoring to pick winners vs making money and they are not always the same thing. There is no magic concerning where a race is placed on the card. Track your wagers and you will know the type(s) of races that bring you profit. Jim
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| Ishmael 5/12/2011 7:15:02 AM | At NYRA tracks (and others) they usually make the last race of the card a highly contentious full field one. And you can see some strange things in terms of betting as players try to "get even". Not as impactful as before the explosion of simulcast money but still there
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| JackB 5/14/2011 9:09:35 AM | Jim, imo, you nailed it. Picking the winners is the easy part. Making the dollars is the tough part. Those "junk" races are what have made my bottom line black. From what I see those races have the design to bring in the nicer P3's, P4's and the carry overs. Perception. Who wants to hit a $20 P3, a $50 P4 or their not ever be a carry over in a P6? You see these large payoffs and you want to play. It brings more money in the pools.
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| Charlie James 5/14/2011 4:25:18 PM | and then there's Murphy's Law-- Every time there's some errand the wife needs done-- run to the store, take this to the post office, borrow that from the neighbor-- and the 20 minutes it takes causes one of those early races to be missed-- It's freaking unreal how often a horse I wanted to play wins that early race - at good odds too!
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