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-- Pacefit

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Pacefit

Charli125
2/10/2011
9:12:22 PM

Pacefit did very well in terms of ROI for the month of January, so that caused me to take a closer look. I keep coming across UDM's of mine where the 1st ranked Pacefit horse is a big loser, while the 2nd, 3rd, and sometimes 4th are big winners. That seems a bit counterintuitive to me.

Anyone have any thoughts on the reasoning behind this?

notchback
2/11/2011
3:34:45 PM

Are you able to isolate it further with regard to surface or distance? Anything stick out when you look at PaceIndex or PacePressure?

tanix
2/11/2011
4:08:00 PM

I've seen that situation with some other factors, and in some cases it may well be that the top ranked horse (of whatever criteria) exhibits an obvious advantage and is thus bet down by the public. ROI suffers, but winning percentage and impact value should still be high for the rank 1 horse.

It should be relatively simple to create a test UDM to verify.

The above comments regarding distance/track/surface are also relevant.

JackB
2/11/2011
7:22:27 PM

When in doubt, play the longest odds. Has work well for me. ;)

Charli125
2/13/2011
2:45:46 PM

Allright, thanks for the input, and here's a bit more info.

January Pacefit by rank:
Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 8.50 3388.00 1.0025 413 1694 .2438 2.0386
2 -592.80 3380.00 0.8246 257 1690 .1521 1.2716
3 -469.10 3420.00 0.8628 247 1710 .1444 1.2078

Pacefit Rank1 by Distance
>=Min < Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
-999.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
4.00 4.50 7.00 8.00 1.8750 1 4 .2500 1.0254
4.50 5.00 40.00 152.00 1.2632 29 76 .3816 1.5651
5.00 5.50 34.00 190.00 1.1789 23 95 .2421 0.9930
5.50 6.00 31.50 402.00 1.0784 61 201 .3035 1.2448
6.00 6.50 30.20 882.00 1.0342 125 441 .2834 1.1626
6.50 7.00 -11.40 318.00 0.9642 32 159 .2013 0.8255
7.00 7.50 7.80 200.00 1.0390 25 100 .2500 1.0254
7.50 8.00 -33.20 52.00 0.3615 3 26 .1154 0.4733
8.00 8.50 -250.50 848.00 0.7046 73 424 .1722 0.7062
8.50 9.00 153.30 278.00 1.5514 33 139 .2374 0.9738
9.00 9.50 3.40 44.00 1.0773 6 22 .2727 1.1186

Pacefit Rank1 by surface:
Surface Today Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 Unknown
1.00 46.40 2778.00 1.0167 350 1389 .2520 1.0335 Outer/Main Dirt Course
2.00 -10.70 216.00 0.9505 32 108 .2963 1.2153 Inner Dirt Course
3.00 8.40 58.00 1.1448 7 29 .2414 0.9901 Off the Turf
4.00 -35.60 336.00 0.8940 24 168 .1429 0.5860 Outer/Main Turf Course

ryesteve
2/14/2011
9:39:22 AM

"Anyone have any thoughts on the reasoning behind this?"

Two possible explanations come to mind: short-term volatility; or, depending upon what's driving these UDMs, the fact that the horse has figs that aren't good enough to earn the top pacefit implies that they are extra-strong in the factors that are driving the success of the UDM

Charli125
2/15/2011
1:40:04 PM

"the fact that the horse has figs that aren't good enough to earn the top pacefit implies that they are extra-strong in the factors that are driving the success of the UDM"

I think this is the most likely explanation. I'm just trying to wrap my head around it.

Thanks for the input guys.

jeff
2/15/2011
8:07:26 PM

I tend to think of results like this (single factor = flat bet ++ roi for a single month) in terms of short term aberration defined.

That said, here's what I have - all tracks everywhere -PaceFit for the month of Jan, 2011:

code:

Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
`
SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE YEAR=2011 
      AND MONTH=1
`
`
Data Summary         Win     Place      Show
Mutuel Totals   37758.50  36760.80  36112.10
Bet            -47864.00 -47864.00 -47864.00
Gain           -10105.50 -11103.20 -11751.90
`
Wins                2890      5753      8487
Plays              23932     23932     23932
PCT                .1208     .2404     .3546
`
ROI               0.7889    0.7680    0.7545
Avg Mut            13.07      6.39      4.25
`
`
By: SQL-F21 Rank
`
Rank       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays     Pct     Impact
   1     315.60   5750.00    1.0549    720   2875   .2504     2.0738  
   2    -558.40   5720.00    0.9024    539   2860   .1885     1.5606  
   3   -1593.40   5810.00    0.7257    393   2905   .1353     1.1203  
   4   -1567.20   5988.00    0.7383    327   2994   .1092     0.9044  
   5    -601.20   5810.00    0.8965    311   2905   .1071     0.8865  
   6   -1753.30   5418.00    0.6764    222   2709   .0819     0.6786  
   7   -1492.40   4586.00    0.6746    166   2293   .0724     0.5995  
   8    -884.80   3552.00    0.7509    106   1776   .0597     0.4942  
   9   -1113.40   2484.00    0.5518     50   1242   .0403     0.3334  
  10    -361.60   1568.00    0.7694     34    784   .0434     0.3591  
  11    -347.60    710.00    0.5104     15    355   .0423     0.3499  
  12    -179.00    432.00    0.5856      6    216   .0278     0.2300  
  13      41.20     26.00    2.5846      1     13   .0769     0.6370  
  14     -10.00     10.00    0.0000      0      5   .0000     0.0000  
`
`
`
`
`
query start:         2/15/2011 4:56:43 PM
query end:           2/15/2011 4:56:49 PM
elapsed time:        6 seconds
`
Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
`
SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE YEAR=2011 
      AND MONTH=1
      AND RANKF21=1
`
`
Data Summary         Win     Place      Show
Mutuel Totals    6065.60   5285.30   5118.80
Bet             -5750.00  -5750.00  -5750.00
Gain              315.60   -464.70   -631.20
`
Wins                 720      1165      1521
Plays               2875      2875      2875
PCT                .2504     .4052     .5290
`
ROI               1.0549    0.9192    0.8902
Avg Mut             8.42      4.54      3.37
`
`
By: Distance
`
  >=Min      < Max      Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays     Pct   Impact
-999.00       4.00      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000   0.0000
   4.00       4.50    -20.00     20.00    0.0000      0     10   .0000   0.0000
   4.50       5.00     21.00    224.00    1.0938     39    112   .3482   1.3904
   5.00       5.50    164.40    334.00    1.4922     44    167   .2635   1.0521
   5.50       6.00    -42.10    678.00    0.9379     93    339   .2743   1.0954
   6.00       6.50     -4.90   1522.00    0.9968    206    761   .2707   1.0809
   6.50       7.00     60.20    544.00    1.1107     59    272   .2169   0.8661
   7.00       7.50      9.00    310.00    1.0290     42    155   .2710   1.0820
   7.50       8.00    -49.00     82.00    0.4024      3     41   .0732   0.2922
   8.00       8.50    -59.70   1442.00    0.9586    158    721   .2191   0.8750
   8.50       9.00    186.70    500.00    1.3734     63    250   .2520   1.0063
   9.00       9.50     37.00     78.00    1.4744     10     39   .2564   1.0239
   9.50      10.00      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000   0.0000
  10.00      10.50     15.20     10.00    2.5200      2      5   .4000   1.5972
  10.50      11.00      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000   0.0000
  11.00      11.50      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000   0.0000
  11.50      12.00      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000   0.0000
  12.00      12.50     -2.20      6.00    0.6333      1      3   .3333   1.3310
  12.50      13.00      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000   0.0000
  13.00  999999.00      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000   0.0000
`
`
`
By: Surface Today
`
Surface Today       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays     Pct     Impact
         0.00       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000     0.0000  Unknown
         1.00     185.70   4730.00    1.0393    610   2365   .2579     1.0299  Outer/Main Dirt Course
         2.00     -50.10    342.00    0.8535     47    171   .2749     1.0975  Inner Dirt Course
         3.00      39.20    130.00    1.3015     19     65   .2923     1.1672  Off the Turf
         4.00     140.80    548.00    1.2569     44    274   .1606     0.6412  Outer/Main Turf Course

Btw, PaceFit wasn't the only flat bet ++roi single factor for the month of Jan, 2011.

-jp

.

~Edited by: jeff on: 2/15/2011 at: 8:07:26 PM~

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JCapper 101 -- Pacefit

JCapper 101
-- Pacefit