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| By | PaceLine Selection | |
| bettheoverlay 5/8/2008 12:43:05 PM | I've always been hazy on this checkbox in Systems Definition. I couldn't find anything in the help docs although I think the old forum had some threads on it. Got stuck in my mind yesterday because of the 85/1 JPR1 in the 4th at HOL and what line the program might have chosen. My settings are at 120 days and 5 races back with neither Logical Distance/Surface boxes checked. I assume this is the default that most everyone is using. How tricky is it to play around with these settings? I would imagine all the factors could change with just minor tweaking. Have some users found different settings to be more effective? And I guess any permanent changes would require a db build from scratch?
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| jeff 5/8/2008 6:34:11 PM | I initially created the ability to define PaceLine selection rules at the behest of an original JCapper user who wanted the ability to use "logical" speed figures in his UDMs. Within this context, a logical speed figure is defined as the best speed figure on a similar surface at a similar distance within X races back and Y days back... with X and Y being up to the user to define. When I made the addition to the program the user thanked me profusely but admitted about 6 months afterwards that the new feature hadn't boosted the roi of his UDMs nearly as much as he thought it would. I've done a fair amount of research into the area of how PaceLine selection criteria affects roi in large data samples. I can say from experience that if a magic bullet exists for PaceLine defintions I certainly haven't seen any signs of it in my research. You should know that the PaceLine selection rules saved on your System Definitions Screen do not affect ratings that are hard coded into the program such as JRating, CPace, Form, Weighted Figure, and the Compound Pace Array Factors, etc. The settings DO however affect user defineable IV Table factors such as JPR, UPR, and UserFactors 1-5 if and when PaceLine is used as one of the factors in the factor mix under that GroupName. So if you are wondering whether or not changing your PaceLine selection criteria will affect how a given factor is calculated, the easiest way is to go into the IV Table Wizard, pull up the GroupName driving that factor and hit the Reports button. If you see PaceLine listed as one of the active factors, then know changes in PaceLine definition WILL change that GroupName's factor result when you are done. In theory, it is at least possible to improve IV Table factor strength (as well as destroy it) by trying out different PaceLine selection rules, rebuilding databases from scratch, and looking at results in the Data Window. And depending on the factor mix - the same can be said of individual UDMs. My own current PaceLine selection rules are designed to assist with horses stretching out and cutting back in distance. I do not currently enforce a logical surface but DO enforce a logical distance. That way I can use PaceLine in my own UPR and UDMs as just one indicator among many of how strong a horse might be at a similar distance. -jp .
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| bettheoverlay 5/8/2008 9:26:03 PM | Jeff - Thanks for the very clear explanation. I have Paceline in my new UPR and having rebuilt my dbs twice in the last 2 weeks I think I'll leave tinkering for another day.
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