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JustRalph
5/7/2008
11:49:45 PM

I am trying to write a UDM that finds horses shortening up or cutting back.

As on the HTML report you find -1 for a horse going from 8F to 7F etc.

I create the UDM but it seems to only work on Positive numbers......horses that are stretching out. I am screwing up I am sure on the min/max value entry. I am using "distance shift" as the factor but no matter what I try in the min/max values...... i can't get it right?

Any suggestions?

SAL
5/7/2008
11:55:57 PM

In the preset filter type in "R2S" (without quotes)

This will filter to horses going from a route to a sprint.

I hope that's what you were looking for.

parshooter
5/8/2008
1:02:18 AM

I wrote a UDM R2S-OK as follows:
Distance S
AFR min gap -40
Race Strength max rank 6
Preset filters R2S
and CLEAN

Used the opposite of Audio for UDM S2R
seems to work okay but also looking for suggestions for improvement

jeff
5/8/2008
1:39:39 AM

--quote:

"I am trying to write a UDM that finds horses shortening up or cutting back.

As on the HTML report you find -1 for a horse going from 8F to 7F etc.

I create the UDM but it seems to only work on Positive numbers......horses that are stretching out. I am screwing up I am sure on the min/max value entry. I am using "distance shift" as the factor but no matter what I try in the min/max values...... i can't get it right?

Any suggestions?"

--end quote

There are many different ways to accomplish this. You have the following factors at your disposal:

Preset Filters such as:
R2S require Route to Sprint

and:
6.0FMIN avoid distance < 6.0 furlongs

as well as selecting specific distances in the Distance Drop Down in the UDM Wizard

and setting min and max val for Distance Shift in the UDM Wizard

Let's work through an example...

Let's say for the sake of argument you want to create a UDM that flags horses shortening up:

specifically from any of the following three distances:
1 Mile, 1 Mile & 70 yds, and 1 1/16 Miles

to the following distance:
7f

1. In the UDM Wizard, when creating (or modifying) the UDM, select the 7f distance from the Distance Drop and hit the Save button.

2. Next, you want to set the min and max values for Distance Shift. Think it through first. Cutting back from 1 Mile (or 8.0f) to 7.0f is a distance shift of -1. That's your Max value. Cutting back from 1 1/16 Miles (or 8.5f) to 7.0f is a distance shift of -1.5. That's your Min value.

Grab Distance Shift from the factors drop down. Click the Test Box. Key in -1.5 as your Min val. Key in -1.0 as your Max val. Hit the Save Button.

That's it!!! You now have a UDM that flags horses cutting back from 1 Mile, 1 Mile & 70 yds, and 1 1/16 Miles to 7f. From there (hopefully) you'll be able through R&D to find other factors capable of improving it.

The key for me when I do this for myself (and in teaching others how to do this) is to get people to lay out exactly what they want to do first before trying to think up a solution.

And if a solution isn't readily apparent, help is (usually) no further away than a post or two in this forum.

Running the above UDM through the Data Window against my calendar yr 2007 database...


     UDM Definition:   CutBack_4Ralph
     Divisor:          # UDM Def  Divisor: 999
     Surface Req:      *ANY Surface*
     Distance Req:     7f

     Distance Shift:   MinVal= -1.5  MaxVal= -1
     Running Style:    ALL


     Data Window Settings:
     Divisor = 999      Odds Cap: None
     Filters Applied: 

     Surface: (ALL*)  7f  
     From Index File: C:\2007\pl_Complete_History.txt


     Data Summary         Win     Place      Show
     Mutuel Totals    5942.30   5936.40   5770.30
     Bet             -7612.00  -7612.00  -7612.00
     Gain            -1669.70  -1675.60  -1841.70


     Wins                 427       861      1291
     Plays               3806      3806      3806
     PCT                .1122     .2262     .3392


     ROI               0.7806    0.7799    0.7581
     Avg Mut            13.92      6.89      4.47


     By: CPace Rank

                Rank       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays     Pct     Impact
                   1      15.00    458.00    1.0328     45    229   .1965     1.7515  
                   2     -53.10    582.00    0.9088     44    291   .1512     1.3477  
                   3     -63.40    684.00    0.9073     60    342   .1754     1.5637  
                   4    -252.80    846.00    0.7012     56    423   .1324     1.1800  
                   5    -281.60    976.00    0.7115     51    488   .1045     0.9315  
                   6    -291.30    988.00    0.7052     49    494   .0992     0.8841  
                   7    -387.00    982.00    0.6059     38    491   .0774     0.6898  
                   8    -423.80    764.00    0.4453     26    382   .0681     0.6067  
                   9     -97.80    534.00    0.8169     23    267   .0861     0.7678  
                  10       1.60    346.00    1.0046     14    173   .0809     0.7213  
                  11     117.90    240.00    1.4913     11    120   .0917     0.8171  
                  12      13.60    128.00    1.1063      5     64   .0781     0.6964  
                  13      37.00     48.00    1.7708      3     24   .1250     1.1142  
                  14     -12.60     32.00    0.6063      1     16   .0625     0.5571  
                  15      10.60      2.00    6.3000      1      1  1.0000     8.9133  
                  16      -2.00      2.00    0.0000      0      1   .0000     0.0000

-jp

.

Hdcper
5/8/2008
1:50:23 AM

Parshooter,

I ran your Udm parameters for all tracks I have in my database for races in 2008.

Here is the output for your review. Let me know if I am missing something in the Udm.

I would assume you are finding this Udm to be successful at a specific track and not all tracks as a whole







     UDM Definition:   R2SOK
     Divisor:          # UDM Def  Divisor: 999
     Surface Req:      D*
     Distance Req:     S

     AFR:              MinRank= -999  MaxRank= 999   MinVal= -999  MaxVal= 999   MinGap= -40  MaxGap= 999
     Race Strength:    MinRank= -999  MaxRank= 6   MinVal= -999  MaxVal= 999   MinGap= -999  MaxGap= 999
     Running Style:    ALL


     Data Window Settings:
     Divisor = 999      Odds Cap: None
     Filters Applied: CLEAN-R2S-

     Dirt (All*)  SPRINTS  (From Index File: C:\JcapperDatabases\AADATABASE2008\pL_profile.txt)


     Data Summary         Win     Place      Show
     Mutuel Totals    3965.60   3871.50   3803.90
     Bet             -4620.00  -4620.00  -4620.00
     Gain             -654.40   -748.50   -816.10

     Wins                 349       693       996
     Plays               2310      2310      2310
     PCT                .1511     .3000     .4312

     ROI               0.8584    0.8380    0.8234
     Avg Mut            11.36      5.59      3.82


     By: 21 TheOdds

               >=Min      < Max      Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays       Pct
                0.00       0.00      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0     .0000
                0.00       0.50     -1.40     20.00    0.9300      7     10     .7000
                0.50       1.00     -6.20    116.00    0.9466     32     58     .5517
                1.00       1.50    -38.60    182.00    0.7879     33     91     .3626
                1.50       2.00    -75.40    242.00    0.6884     31    121     .2562
                2.00       2.50     44.20    262.00    1.1687     48    131     .3664
                2.50       3.00    -69.10    278.00    0.7514     28    139     .2014
                3.00       3.50    -82.10    250.00    0.6716     20    125     .1600
                3.50       4.00    -50.50    206.00    0.7549     17    103     .1650
                4.00       4.50    -71.20    190.00    0.6253     12     95     .1263
                4.50       5.00     16.20    154.00    1.1052     15     77     .1948
                5.00       5.50     -0.80    150.00    0.9947     12     75     .1600
                5.50       6.00    -52.00    146.00    0.6438      7     73     .0959
                6.00       6.50     64.20    140.00    1.4586     14     70     .2000
                6.50       7.00    -45.80    154.00    0.7026      7     77     .0909
                7.00       7.50    -33.90    124.00    0.7266      6     62     .0968
                7.50       8.00    -38.90    108.00    0.6398      4     54     .0741
                8.00       8.50    -57.00     94.00    0.3936      2     47     .0426
                8.50       9.00    -21.80    100.00    0.7820      4     50     .0800
                9.00    9999.00   -134.30   1704.00    0.9212     50    852     .0587



Ending BankRoll:   $99.60
Starting BankRoll: $500.00
High BankRoll:     $495.00
Low BankRoll:      $99.60
Bet Percentage:    0.0100
Max Bet:           500.00

~Edited by: Hdcper on: 5/8/2008 at: 1:50:23 AM~

JustRalph
5/8/2008
2:25:07 AM

Wow, you guys are great! I am really starting to have some fun now. Thanks very much for all of your suggestions.

I do have to tell you that walking around the parking lot at the Airport waiting to pick the wife up and thinking about UDM's can make you look like an escaped mental patient or maybe some guy who is out on a pass from the "state".........especially when you start talking to yourself.......

Thanks again!

parshooter
5/8/2008
9:22:44 AM

my database is smaller (302 plays)was using all tracks and all surfaces -mine showed a win profit +32.60
tracks in my database include MNR-TUP-SAX-CDX-GPX
so samples of each not large
I am new to Jcapper and looking to improve
Thank you for your help

JCapper Message Board

JCapper 101 -- ok....the name of the forum is

JCapper 101
-- ok....the name of the forum is