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| By | 1st Time Starters | |
| Charli125 8/27/2010 11:17:33 AM | I've been going through fine-tuning UDM's lately, and one of the things I keep seeing is a ton of UDM's on the one or two horses in a field full of firsters. I've played with ftscount<(fieldsize/3) and those types of things, but I can't find a sweet spot yet. Does anyone have any ideas on things that have worked for races with lots of firsters?
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| Charli125 8/27/2010 11:44:16 AM | One other thing to point out from this exercise that might be useful. When I look at UDM's from 2009, and then apply them to 2010, there is a HUGE difference. It explains why I haven't been doing so well lately. Several tracks had completely changed and I would've been better off betting against my UDM's!
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| Charlie James 8/27/2010 1:12:18 PM | Wobrill, bf, and pedigree work well for flagging fts. Have had success taking it a step further by also demanding the fts be under the care of trainers who do well with fts as well fitting my notes as to preferred worktabs of those trainers.
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| jeff 8/27/2010 3:09:57 PM | Charlie125, In races with several first time starters, demand value on those that have run before by using an odds ratio cutoff, a min strike price, or a combination of both before pulling the trigger. As far as tracks changing from one meet to the next, I assume you mean track surfaces in the context of early vs late. If so, I concur. It pays to stay on top of the way the surfaces are currently playing. That said, most of the UDMs I am using aren't track specific. Instead, they are based on a more universal concept of finding horses with strong combinations of early speed and form while ranking well vs their fields in one or more of the power ratings... and THEN insisting that value be there before pulling the trigger. -jp .
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| Charli125 8/27/2010 4:12:19 PM | That's interesting to hear that you don't have many track specific UDM's. I have a lot. I have 8-10 UDM's for all tracks, and then 30-40 track specific UDM's. I guess i've just seen some factors work extremely well at some tracks, and not at others. Thanks also to Charlie J for the advice.
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| mikejlb 8/28/2010 1:53:49 AM | I have always liked large samples. With a track specific udm the sample size has to be considered. If the udm further filters for surface and sprints / routes then the sample size gets smaller again. Where do you find a comfortable sample size? Going back several years will add to the sample size but might distort what is working in the recent year or two.
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| ArlJim78 8/28/2010 12:43:04 PM | I generally use FTSCOUNT<=3, or thereabouts. I have just never had much success when there are many firsters present. So much more is hidden that I just try to avoid it altogther. Also I use 99% generic UDM's (not track specific). I'm looking for particular value situations instead of trying to master track specifics.
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| Charli125 8/28/2010 12:48:15 PM | I'm going to spend the day looking at this. I think you're all right that the sample size is too small, and that adding a past year can really make the results mirky. I'm also going to look at the ftscount<3 to see how that works.
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| jeff 8/28/2010 3:54:39 PM | In a race with first timers those that have run will always have at least the appearance of advantages numbers-wise over those who have yet to run. Every race is different. Sometimes those apparent advantages are telling. Other times not. Sometimes the UDM horse with advantages over a field full of FTS has those advantages simply by default in that the UDM horse has run and the others have not. Jim's comment about building a max number of FTS constraint into a UDM is a good way of reducing risk when playing against firsters you know nothing about. Chuck's comment about rating firsters based on Wobrill, Ped, and trainer intent will often point out races where at least one of the firsters is live. To that end, I think it's a good idea to have one or two "layering" UDMs designed to point out well meant first time starters. If nothing else, such UDMs will tell you when one or more of the firsters has a logical chance of being able to outrun horses with 1 or more starts selected by business UDMs. Personally, I have no qualms when it comes to playing a horse that has run selected by business UDMs vs. a field full of firsters - p r o v i d e d - that the business UDM horse is going off at odds high enough to create value. -jp . ~Edited by: jeff on: 8/28/2010 at: 3:54:39 PM~
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