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| By | expected value uprzscoreprob | |
| GlennF 7/11/2010 9:41:38 AM | What is expected value uprzscoreprob and how would it be used in developing a UDM?
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| jeff 7/11/2010 5:51:28 PM | UPRZScoreProb is a probability number resulting from an algorithm in JCapper that performs some statistical analysis of the UPR numbers of the horses in each race (including the normalized ZScores of the UPR numbers.) I can't take credit for the idea. It came from these threads: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=48219 http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=41075&page=1&pp=15 http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard/TopicReader.asp?topic=148&forum=General UPRZScoreOL = (1 / UPRZScoreProb) - 1 In the above equation, UPRZScoreOL is the odds line derived from using UPRZScoreProb as the probability. E~UPRZScoreProb is a ratio expressed as: E~UPRZScoreProb = (Odds / UPRZScoreOL) In the above equation, E~UPRZScore = 1.00 represents a theoretical overlay. When you run a UDM through the Data Window broken out by E~UPRZScoreProb, quite often you will see an (obvious) cutoff in the data describing a set of plays that are overlays. The more hidden positives in the set of horses returned by your query, the stronger this effect will be. E~UPRZScoreProb is not intended to act as a perfect odds line. However, it can act as a nice adjunct to play or pass decision making for a set of plays that already contain a fair degree of hidden positives: -jp . ~Edited by: jeff on: 7/11/2010 at: 5:51:28 PM~
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| GlennF 7/11/2010 10:20:21 PM | Thanks Jeff
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