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| By | What is Upropinionprob? | |
| kingfish 10/4/2009 2:43:33 PM | Seen this in the sql html setup factor screen. What exactly is it? Also my systems definition setting is set on user defined upr. But my sql html report is showing jprmlprob. So what is driving the sql html report? kingfish
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| jeff 10/4/2009 5:29:35 PM | UPROpinionProb = UPR Opinion Prob It's the result of an algorithm I developed after looking at some pretty large data samples involving my own UPR while en route to BettorsToteProb. Inputs for the algorithm are UPR numeric value, rank, and gap for every horse in the race. The algorithm returns win probability (an opinion) for each horse before the odds are known. UPROpinionProb is then fed into a second algorithm, along with current odds, to arrive at BettorsToteProb. The theory behind it goes something like this: You can get a very accurate probability estimate by taking your own very good opinion about the chances of each horse before the odds are known and then adding to that opinion by factoring in the opinions of 10's of thousands of other bettors about that same horse as refected in the odds. When the player starts with a good opinion about each horse - the better the player's UPR the better the starting opinion... BettorsToteProb can be a VERY accurate probability estimate. Q. What's driving the display in Slot# 1 on the Customizeable SQL Mode HTML Report? A. The factor assigned to slot #1 in your Customizeable SQL Mode HTML Report Layout. JPRMLProb is the factor assigned to slot#1 in the default layout. If you want to replace that with UPRMLProb, start here: Running JCapper in SQL Mode Watch the videos... Read the Design Doc... and then have at it. Swapping out JPRMLProb with UPRMLProb and isn't all that hard to do. But it does require an understanding of the SQL Mode user interface... which IS separate from the Playlistfile Mode interface. Something to keep in mind... The current interface for SQL Mode Customizeable HTML Report setup isn't the final interface. I'll be releasing something MUCH more robust (along with a video) this coming week - most likely by Wed. -jp .
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| ryesteve 10/5/2009 9:38:03 AM | I'm still not clear on this... is UPR Opinion Prob the same as UPRMLProb, or is it a different estimate that doesn't even include the ML in the algorithm?
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| jeff 10/5/2009 10:15:54 AM | Generated using a separate algorithm that does not include the ML. -jp .
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| JDL 10/5/2009 8:07:48 PM | HI Jeff: Thank you for your patience with explaining the difference between the importance of StarterHistory with SQL and the pl_profile. I finally got it. I've spent a temendous amount of time developing a UPR more robust than JPR and JRating. Not an easy thing to do. After accomplishing this, the first thing I did was to replace the JPR rating in the SQL HTML report with a UPR rating. Like you and Jim, I don't think you can profit at this game without thinking out of the box with some of your UDM's and possible even your UPR rating. If you can make the conversion to the SQL UDM format. The flexibility of the SQL UDM over the traditional UDM can be rewarding.In some ways, I wished you wouldn't make the SQL interface more friendly, but, I'm sure we will all benefit. Regards, JDL
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