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What do you believe to be the top 3 factors in Jcapper

JustRalph
10/1/2009
8:44:09 AM

I am going back and re-writing a bunch of UDM's and tossing out a bunch..........

Kind of a reset for winter racing.

I would like to know what the users of Jcapper think are the top 3 factors for use in a UDM are........

I gotta start with "Qrating" Anybody have any other thoughts?

I would love to hear your input also jeff....

jeff
10/1/2009
12:38:56 PM

I've posted this a couple of times before... and "out there" as it sounds I fully believe it to be true...

A while back I was putting together material for a JCapper seminar. I put together 30-45 minutes on developing rules for play or pass decision making.

When doing the R&D for that seminar piece I proved to my own satisfaction that this is EXTREMELY IMPORTANT... so much so that once the player adds a VERY GOOD play or pass decision element to his game, he can achieve profitable play even when all of his selections are arrived at using a random number generator.

So for me it's not about what factors to use in the selection process. It's about determining the "strength of play" for each and every horse that you "somehow" select and then enforcing that strength of play as part of your play or pass decision making.

Understand that good factors in the selection process HELP. Enforcing a well thought out set of rules during play or pass decision making to horses selected using a good UPR will get you more plays at a positive expectancy than applying the same set of rules to a weaker UPR.

But even if all of your plays are selected using a random number generator... you'll make very few plays... but profitable is definitely possible.

For me, the most important factors in the toolbox are:

E~BettorsToteProb
E~UPRZScoreProb
MLOR3
MLine Rank
MLine
RV
FieldSize
Odds
RankOdds

and of course UPR.

OK... That's more than three. But then you DID ask for my input!

-jp

.

bettheoverlay
10/1/2009
4:39:21 PM

Of the old factors, I found PMI and Optimization to be effective for ROI. Of the more recent - FastSlowFinal. The new consensus factors look really good. I have just started playing around with ESPRaceShape - this may become my all time favorite.

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bettheoverlay
10/3/2009
10:09:00 PM

Just for fun I ran all races 5f and up on the races in my database(not nearly as extensive as others) for this year

code:

Key Factors Rank = 1 sorted by Win ROI                  Run Date: 10/3/2009 9:58:27 PM
     ****************************************************************************************
                                            WIN  WIN          WIN               PLACE   PLACE
     FACTOR           PLAYS    WINS         PCT  IMPACT       ROI  PLACES         PCT     ROI
     ****************************************************************************************
     JPRCLASS F17        7650    2114    0.2763  2.3591    0.9276    3579      0.4678  0.9182  
     USERFACTOR3 F03     7650    2030    0.2654  2.266     0.9174    3501      0.4576  0.924   
     CLASSCONSENSUS F11  8333    2051    0.2461  2.1012    0.9102    3614      0.4337  0.9049  
     USERFACTOR5 F05     7653    1755    0.2293  1.9578    0.9065    3126      0.4085  0.9184  
     UPR                 7654    2113    0.2761  2.3574    0.9035    3579      0.4676  0.8964  
     POWERCONSENSUS F10  7927    2186    0.2758  2.3548    0.9007    3742      0.4721  0.9154  
     FORMCONSENSUS F07   8144    1456    0.1788  1.5266    0.8974    2768      0.3399  0.9073  
     UPRMLPROB           7653    2233    0.2918  2.4914    0.893     3721      0.4862  0.8887  
     PMI F23             7657    1759    0.2297  1.9612    0.8924    3140      0.4101  0.9176  
     PAL F30             8089    1766    0.2183  1.8639    0.8871    3115      0.3851  0.8621

Userfactor3 is my class power rating and Userfactor 5 is my form power rating. I would have never guessed JPRClass would be #1 in ROI. Indeed, such a strong showing by class and form overall is surprising.

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JCapper 101 -- What do you believe to be the top 3 factors in Jcapper

JCapper 101
-- What do you believe to be the top 3 factors in Jcapper