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By Impact Value Calculations
TomV
11/15/2008
9:49:22 PM
Hi Jeff,

How are the Impact Values calculated in Jcapper ?

Is it the way Quirin used in his books: win% / % of starter

or is done using the A/E formula: Actual Win% / Expected Win%

Thanks,
Tom

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jeff
11/16/2008
3:27:31 PM
It's win pct for an individual segment of the sample divided by win percent of the overall sample. For example, you run an ALL button query through the Data Window broken out by CPace rank. It comes back with a win pct of .1274 for all starters in the database and a win pct of .2239 for all horses that are CPace rank=1.

IV = .2239 / .1274

or

IV = 1.7575


-jp

.

Reply
TomV
11/16/2008
5:06:55 PM
Thanks for the information as that makes it clear.

Next question is, short of using one of the PL Files, is there an easy way to determine the average odds of all horses qualifying for a specific factor, such as Cpace1 ?



Reply
jeff
11/16/2008
5:40:30 PM
An ALL button Data Window query broken out by CPace rank will show you enough info so that you'll be able to manually calc avg odds of the winners for each rank.

Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*)
From Index File: C:\2008\Q4_2008\pL_profile.txt

`
Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 37669.00 36588.00 36864.10
Bet -48658.00 -48658.00 -48658.00
Gain -10989.00 -12070.00 -11793.90
`
Wins 2843 5668 8406
Plays 24329 24329 24329
PCT .1169 .2330 .3455
`
ROI 0.7742 0.7519 0.7576
Avg Mut 13.25 6.46 4.39
`
`
`
`
By: CPace Rank
`
Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -221.30 5654.00 0.9609 576 2827 .2037 1.7436
2 -591.20 5674.00 0.8958 465 2837 .1639 1.4026
3 -681.10 5644.00 0.8793 405 2822 .1435 1.2281
4 -1452.90 5644.00 0.7426 318 2822 .1127 0.9643
5 -1429.10 5628.00 0.7461 298 2814 .1059 0.9062
6 -1553.40 5374.00 0.7109 233 2687 .0867 0.7421
7 -940.00 4752.00 0.8022 218 2376 .0918 0.7852
8 -1335.40 3724.00 0.6414 124 1862 .0666 0.5699
9 -873.90 2692.00 0.6754 88 1346 .0654 0.5595
10 -1094.10 1860.00 0.4118 52 930 .0559 0.4785
11 -350.10 1068.00 0.6722 36 534 .0674 0.5769
12 -230.60 638.00 0.6386 22 319 .0690 0.5902
13 -110.90 150.00 0.2607 4 75 .0533 0.4564
14 -65.70 84.00 0.2179 2 42 .0476 0.4075
15 -28.90 36.00 0.1972 1 18 .0556 0.4754
16 -26.40 32.00 0.1750 1 16 .0625 0.5348
17+ -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000


Avg post time odds of all starters in the sample is a different animal altogether. It isn't something I wrote into the program.

You can however get an idea by creating a UDM where the only factor constraint is CPace rank=1 and then run it back through the Data Window broken out by Odds Range. This will allow you to see how many CPace rank=1 horses went to post within each odds range group.

UDM Definition: JustCPace
Divisor: # UDM Def Divisor: 999
Surface Req: *ANY Surface*
Distance Req: *ANY Distance*
`
CPace: MinRank= 1 MaxRank= 1 MinVal= -999 MaxVal= 999 MinGap= -999 MaxGap= 999
Running Style: ALL
`
`
query start: 11/16/2008 2:36:32 PM
query end: 11/16/2008 2:37:02 PM
elapsed time: 30 seconds
`
Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999 Odds Cap: None
Filters Applied:
`
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*)
From Index File: C:\2008\Q4_2008\pL_profile.txt)

`
Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 5432.70 4947.40 4879.50
Bet -5654.00 -5654.00 -5654.00
Gain -221.30 -706.60 -774.50
`
Wins 576 1011 1365
Plays 2827 2827 2827
PCT .2037 .3576 .4828
`
ROI 0.9609 0.8750 0.8630
Avg Mut 9.43 4.89 3.57
`
`
`
`
By: Odds Range
`
>=Min < Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
-999.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0.00 1.00 -52.80 404.00 0.8693 108 202 .5347 2.6241
1.00 2.00 -46.10 814.00 0.9434 159 407 .3907 1.9174
2.00 3.00 -160.10 804.00 0.8009 93 402 .2313 1.1354
3.00 4.00 -33.00 584.00 0.9435 64 292 .2192 1.0757
4.00 5.00 -78.20 426.00 0.8164 32 213 .1502 0.7374
5.00 6.00 -89.40 394.00 0.7731 24 197 .1218 0.5979
6.00 7.00 40.30 312.00 1.1292 24 156 .1538 0.7551
7.00 8.00 -36.50 222.00 0.8356 11 111 .0991 0.4864
8.00 9.00 -32.00 186.00 0.8280 8 93 .0860 0.4222
9.00 10.00 -0.50 168.00 0.9970 8 84 .0952 0.4674
10.00 11.00 0.40 114.00 1.0035 5 57 .0877 0.4305
11.00 12.00 111.60 136.00 1.8206 10 68 .1471 0.7218
12.00 13.00 0.00 132.00 1.0000 5 66 .0758 0.3718
13.00 14.00 34.30 80.00 1.4288 4 40 .1000 0.4908
14.00 15.00 3.80 58.00 1.0655 2 29 .0690 0.3385
15.00 16.00 -18.80 52.00 0.6385 1 26 .0385 0.1888
16.00 17.00 10.00 58.00 1.1724 2 29 .0690 0.3385
17.00 18.00 -52.00 52.00 0.0000 0 26 .0000 0.0000
18.00 999999.00 177.70 658.00 1.2701 16 329 .0486 0.2387



-jp

.

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