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| By | My first try at my UPR - win % or roi? | |
| busseb 11/2/2008 10:08:16 PM | I tried to create my own UPR and got the win percentage up from 25% for Jeff's default UPR to 33% for mine, but I can't seem to get the roi over $1.03. Should I be looking to maximize the win percentage or should I be trying to maximize the roi? Or is there a 3rd way? Any input would be appreciated!! ElPaso
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| busseb 11/3/2008 8:50:38 AM | Well, I got my roi up to 1.18, but dropped my win % to .295. This is up significantly from a win ratio of .250 and a roi of 1.00. Anybody have advice on what a good ratio would be? Is there a top end that I should be trying to achieve? ElPaso
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| busseb 11/7/2008 8:57:03 PM | Come on. Some of you have your own UPR's. What should we who are still struggling with maximizing JCapper's potential be trying to achieve with our personal UPR? We can't know what is possible is without knowing what the best of you have been able to do. Trust me. My $5.00 win bet isn't going to ruin your odds. El Paso
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| bettheoverlay 11/8/2008 11:24:16 AM | If you can get those results with a UPR going forward, that would be pretty spectacular. My UPR runs overall about 2 clicks above the JPR in both win% and ROI but I'm not the brightest bulb in the chandelier so I'm sure better results are obtainable. What I did strive for in my last UPR tweaking were more medium/high price horses. The 1st 10 months of this year at odds of 6/1 -14/1 my UPR is 13% w and 1.21 ROI. The JPR for the same period is 11% w and 1.11 ROI. Every category in this odds range of my UPR shows a profit whereas almost all of the JPR profits came out of the 9/1 to 14/1 range. The key for me is building a, or many, effective UDMs out of a serviceable UPR.
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| jeff 11/9/2008 4:20:05 AM | A while back I decided to try something new with my UserFactors. I took the approach of making each UserFactor act as an effective difference maker for a specific situation: I designed UserFactor1 to assist in play or pass decision making for horses with early speed. When CPace horses are at or above a certain UserFactor1 cutoff point they are serious threats to wire their fields. Below the cutoff and they are reliable toss outs. UserFactor2 - same idea - except that the emphasis is placed on CPace horses racing on artifical surfaces. UserFactor3 and UserFactor4 were designed to assist with horses ignored by the public... say at 9-1 and up. UserFactor5 for me includes everything but the kitchen sink. I use it for identifying non UDM contenders when structuring exotics tickets. The win rate for UserFactor5 rank=1 horses is only about 25 pct. But I get 80 pct in the top 4 and horses deeper than the top 4 tend to have really dismal flat win bet roi under just about any conditions and can generally be left off of pick3 and pick4 tickets. Setting this up took some work and more than a little thought ahead of time. But using it during live play absolutely rocks. -jp .
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| mikejlb 11/11/2008 1:33:56 AM | ElPaso, I think there are many answers to your question regarding win% vs roi. IMO ROI comes 1st and I'd be happy with 12% wins if the ROI justified the emotional down swings that would come with long losing streaks. I think the balance between win% and ROI is directly related to a person's desires, patience, belief in his research, bankroll, and the wife's tolerance of the player's losing streaks.
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| Ishmael 11/25/2008 3:13:27 PM | I have a different take myself. I dont think one should spend too much time with either. There is no holy grail that will produce 40% winners and huge repeatable big ROI. Win % is not important at all. I would have a hard if not impossible time making money over the long term by focusing on increasing win %. I think thats wrong approach. Rather how do you take advantage of those races where your opinion is better than others. How do you attack and bet the race. That will determine whether you win or lose and how much. At the end of the year are you concerned with how much money you won or lost, or what your ROI was? A 1.03 ROI is great if its repeatable and frequent. A 1.35 ROI is basically useless if its only small number of plays and not repeatable. All things being equal I cant envision trying to make money every year focusing on 30% hit rates. The payoffs and drudgery of it all would kill me. Need creative juices stimulated. To me the great thing about this program is it is so time effective as far as contender identification. Gets to the heart of the matter quickly. So I can spend the rest of my time focusing on betting that opinion. Devising a ticket. Thats something that even 20 years later is still work in process. ~Edited by: Ishmael on: 11/25/2008 at: 3:11:16 PM~ ~Edited by: Ishmael on: 11/25/2008 at: 3:13:27 PM~
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| ryesteve 11/26/2008 11:07:29 AM | A slight dissent: I would not say that win% is "not important at all". The issue is that low win perecentages lead to increased volatility. My experience is that if I have a UDM that is profitable at a low win%, there is a very good chance that this is a UDM that will perform poorly going forward. I agree that trying to grind out a high win% is very difficult, but at the same time, the opposite extreme can send you down a difficult path as well. ~Edited by: ryesteve on: 11/26/2008 at: 11:07:29 AM~
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| Ishmael 11/26/2008 2:04:06 PM | Agree, didnt phrase that well. A real low (but profitable) win% can be highly suspect going forward. Another reason its key to look at the individual payoffs to see where something might be skewed. And yes, whatever strategy one comes up with, it should be consistent with ones temperment. Alot of my action is exotics so I know there are going to be long dry spells. Hard for the most confident of players to keep stoic when they inevitably happen. Not saying I have that mastered but much much better now than a few years ago. Is funny I hear and read people talking about losing ten races in a row as some kind of embarrassment or something. Have gone through much drier spells than that
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