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| By | Bettor's Tote Probe Expected Value | |||
| busseb 11/1/2008 4:17:35 PM | Jeff: I've been using the bettor's tote prob in the live play module and getting excellent results with the rankings. I prefer to play the pick 3 rather than single races. The live play module shows the Expected Value for the bettor's tote prob and that seems to follow the live bettor's tote prob. The top 3 in rank seem to hit about 80% of the winners. If I could get the rankings (obviously has to be expected value) before the race, pick 3's would be a real money-maker. And also pick 4's, 5's and 6's. Is there any way that you could put the Expected Bettor's Tote ranking (and value) on the HTML Report viewer? Or, can I grab it as a User Factor and save you the work? El Paso ~Edited by: busseb on: 11/1/2008 at: 4:17:35 PM~
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| pdavid6 11/1/2008 6:26:20 PM | I Totally agree with this post as this is one of the strongest tools I use in conjuction w/ my html reports and UDM's. It would be nice to see 2-4 races ahead on betterstote as I'm a P3 P4 player as well...
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| jeff 11/1/2008 11:04:54 PM | Guys, BettorsToteProb comes from an algorithm that takes your UPR and combines it with real time odds to produce a probability. Why isn't it on the HTML Report? Because it requires real time odds as an input. The only places in the program where it exists are in the Data Window and in the Live Play Module. The only way I could put BettorsToteProb on the HTML Report for every horse in every race would be to know what the odds are going to be for every horse in every race in advance... anything else would be an educated guess on my part. That said, you CAN opertate the Live Play Module in ML/Manual Mode... which allows you to pull up each race on the card. After keying in your own estimate for final odds then hit the Manual Calc Button and you'll see BettorsToteProb for every horse in that race. Just be aware that the ToteProb you see will be based on your own estimate for final odds. Why can't it be grabbed as a UserFactor? BettorsToteProb requires UPR as one of its inputs. The internal chain of events to arrive at BettorsToteProb looks like this: 1. Calculate all of the "canned" program factors. 2. Calculate JPR. 3. Calculate UserFactors 1-5 in sequence. 4. Calculate UPR. 5. Calculate BettorsToteProb. BettorsToteProb is the very last thing calculated by the program. Potentially, it has the ability to be influened by every factor in the program that's calculated before it. Think about that for a second. It doesn't/can't exist until everything else is known first. -jp . ~Edited by: jeff on: 11/1/2008 at: 11:03:03 PM~ ~Edited by: jeff on: 11/1/2008 at: 11:04:54 PM~
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| busseb 11/2/2008 4:06:53 PM | I realize the BettorsToteProb comes from real-time odds, but is the Expected BetToteProb also from real-time odds? I thought the "expected" was calculated from data without using actual odds and then compared to the "actual" after the live odds became known. ElPaso ~Edited by: busseb on: 11/2/2008 at: 4:06:53 PM~
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| jeff 11/2/2008 4:44:07 PM |
Yes. Here's the formula: Ev = (Probability) x (Payoff) The probability of a win (which involves real time odds) is calculated first and then multiplied by the payoff (which also involves real time odds.) The resulting expected value is straight out of a math book. -jp . ~Edited by: jeff on: 11/2/2008 at: 4:44:07 PM~
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