JCapper Message Board

JCapper 101
-- How do I use vulnerable favorites in a UDM?

Home	Register Log In

How do I use vulnerable favorites in a UDM?

jeff
8/9/2008
11:28:51 AM

--quote:

"Jeff,

In the live play module I sometimes see a horse's entry # blocked in a red square.

Questions:

1. I think I remember you telling me the red square means the horse is a vulnerable favorite. Correct?

2. Is there a way to pick up a vulnerable favorite indicator in a UDM? I'd really like to see it on my html report. I want to know in advance which races on a card might be worth jumping into. The racebook at Caesars is kind of funny. They frown upon those of us who show up with laptops.

Thanks in advance,

Charlie J"

--end quote

An algorithm in the Live Play Module evaluates attributes belonging to the current post time favorite and categorizes that favorite as either vulnerable or legit. When the favorite is classified as vulnerable the horse's saddle cloth number is highlighted in red.

Historically the vulnerable favorite indicator has been pretty solid Here is a breakdown of all post time favorites from my calendar year 2007 database:


     VFav       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays     Pct     Impact
        0   -5277.20  37814.00    0.8604   7217  18907   .3817     1.1080  Legit Favorite
        1   -5117.50  20038.00    0.7446   2748  10019   .2743     0.7962  Vulnerable Favorite

And you're right. Races with vulnerable favorites often provide excellent betting opportunities.

There ARE preset filters for handling Vulnerable Favorites in UDMs:

FAV_LEG= require strong favorite

FAV_VUL= require weak favorite

FAV= require oddsRank = 1

FAVX require oddsRank > 1

Using combinations of the above 4 filter codes will let you perform Data Window research into just about any aspect of how vulnerable and legit favorites impact your UDMs.

But...

One component of the vulnerable favorites algorithm is post time odds vs ML odds. There are only two places in JCapper where post time odds are known. The Live Play Module and the Data Window. The odds aren't known by the Profile Marker when you run a Calc Races and print the HTML Report that you take to the track or otb (in your case the casino) with you.

Without post time odds there's no way of marking vulnerable favorites on the HTML Report.

So what ends up happening in the program is that the Data Window recognizes the above preset filter codes. This allows you to perform R&D.

But because the odds aren't known by the Profile Marker it is programmed to ignore them.

Which means that if you want to use Vulnerable Favorites as part of your decision making process on race day you need to run the Live Play Module.

-jp

.

JCapper Message Board

JCapper 101 -- How do I use vulnerable favorites in a UDM?

JCapper 101
-- How do I use vulnerable favorites in a UDM?