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| E Jones 7/1/2008 8:58:25 PM | Hello Guys How would i set a UDM 5f 2 back to any sprint distance today??? Thank you Earl J
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7/2/2008 3:09:05 AM | When it comes to specifying distance changes, all of the logic in JCapper is based upon comparing the most recent start back to today's distance. You have: Preset Filters: S2S (sprint to sprint) S2R (sprint to route) R2R (route to route) R2S (route to sprint) Factors: Distance Shift (change in distance last race back to distance today plus or minus measured in furlongs) You also have the ability to require that today's race be run at a specific distance. To date no one has ever requested the ability to specify distance changes measured by comparing the second race back to a specific distance today. It's something I would consider adding to the program at some future point. Hope I explained that in a way that makes sense. -jp .
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| rginste 7/2/2008 9:52:03 AM | Jeff Do you think adding the ability to indicate a gain of lengths between the 1st and 2nd calls would merit an addition to the program? Also, while I'm hot, the Odds in last race compared to odds in 2nd back. Usually a 50% drop along with a non-winning effort in last race and a few other details is a good bet today. Rich
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| jeff 7/2/2008 5:33:20 PM | Very early on I did some R&D into stretch lengths gained and lost... last start, 2nd start back, 3rd start back, etc. I discovered that the public was very much in tune with stretch performance. Strong stretch performance equates to "pretty on paper" and I found it to be (and it continues to be) reflected in the odds. I found that stretch performance could be used in UDMs to increase win rate - but always at the expense of roi. Because of what I found in my R&D I made the decision (odd as it may sound to tradtional handicappers) to not include lengths gained/lost in the stretch last start as a "grabbable" factor for UDMs. One thing that DID result from that early R&D was the concept that the public almost always overbets "pretty" running lines and sometimes underbets "ugly" running lines. From that I developed the factor in the program known as PScore... which can sometimes be a great way to boost roi UDMs. -jp .
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| jeff 7/2/2008 5:33:55 PM | Odds last start is something I am currently re-evaluating. -jp .
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| rginste 7/2/2008 7:22:37 PM | Jeff, I meant lengths gained between the FIRST call and the SECOND call, preferably anything greater than 1 length. When you add in a "went wide" and finish out of the money you have a pretty good potential for an improved effort in the next race at fair odds. This is a big concept from Jim Lehane's very popular book 'Calibration Handicapping' along with some other good 'moves within a race' he supports. Rich
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| E Jones 7/2/2008 7:45:55 PM | --quote: "[finish out of the money you have a pretty good potential for an--end quote Jeff and Rich Thats why i wanted to check it against the database. Horse is in a 5 furlong race 2 back,has a poor effert in last seem to come on to win or hit the board many times in the next race. Earl J
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