jeff 6/15/2013 11:32:18 AM | The JCapper factor called MLOR3 is based on JPR - a factor that is only available in the Platinum program. JPR and its companion factors JPRMLProb and MLOR3 are both calculated using an algorithm that uses JPR as an input value. The factors JPR, JPRMLProb, and MLOR3 are available in the Platinum program only – not the Silver program.
However, JCapper Silver does have a pretty good power rating in its own right called Silver Rating. In the Silver program, the factor “labeled” as UPR is actually Silver Rating.
Further, players operating JCapper Silver in SQL Mode are able to use math inside of SQL expressions in such a way so as to produce a Silver Rating based value ratio that is similar in nature to the factor called MLOR3 in the JCapper Platinum program.
Making the Calculation requires plugging values into the following two formulas:
OL = (1 / Probability)
ValueRatio = MLine /OL
Let's say for the sake of argument that UPRMLProb as calculated by JCapper Silver (based on Silver Rating) for a horse is .2200 and that Morning Line Odds are 8-1.
Odds Line derived from UPRMLProb can then be calculated as follows:
OL = (1/.2200)
-or-
OL = 3.54 to one
The ValueRatio can then be calculated as follows:
ValueRatio = MLine /OL
-or-
ValueRatio = 8 / 3.54
-or-
ValueRatio = 2.25 (rounded)
Once again, this time in English:
In this example, the resulting odds line of 3.54 to 1 (based on UPRMLProb) generated by the JCapper Silver program represents the player’s assessment for the horse.
The morning line odds of 8 to 1 represent the morning line odds maker’s assessment of the same horse. The ratio of difference between the two is 2.25. Therefore, the Silver program ValueRatio equivalent to MLOR3 for this example horse is 2.25.
-jp
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