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| By | my life as a gambler | |
| rkskipster 6/10/2013 1:22:44 PM | Hello all, In an email with Jeff, I needed to show him why I needed something redone. It involved retrieving my roi. I decided to share you fellow cappers,hope I don't bore you First a little background-- I placed my first bet in 1971, since then,it has been love or hate. Yes I have had my big scores. Also tapouts. I am one of the original 100 cappers. I made my living for 5 yrs. betting horses. I have 3 bread and butter UDMS and 2 longshot UDMS.MY main betting format isW-WP-EX-DD-SUPER, smallamts. ave. win bet10-20-- ex.key 5 --dd 5-10. So here goes,I switched to HDW 4-15. The diff. between hdw and bris is phenomenal. From 4-15 to 6-9 I wagered 13k (I grind) ,my roi pre-rebate was .97 after reb. 1.03. This is despite using wrong files and versions (V-3 and platinum).You get to down load 45 prior days when you sign up so I checked 3-15 to 6-9 roi .98 after rebate on handle of 19.5k . If I remove my bad betting(swinging for the fences) pic-3 or4's my roi after rebate is 1.01 on handle of17.5k That is 3 mths. of +roi. I believe a big reason is HDW files. This post is to give newbies hope.Everyone should consider hdw and a rebate adw. I hope I didn't put anyone to sleep. LOL I hopes this gets a little conversation going. Here is how fate works, I emailed jeff and dave swartz for particulars on thier respective programs before I decided on capper. Dave even had a special going on at the time --$50 for the program. I really dont know why I picked capper, but I am glad I did. Also my udms flag an ave. of 3 plays a track, but with 20 tracks running I have plenty of opportunities. Rick " Old man look at my life---I'm alot like you were" I meant to say how I hate even looking at PP's anymore and I very seldom give out tips because I am tired of havig to explain " how did you pick that horse? He looks like dogfood. ~Edited by: rkskipster on: 6/10/2013 at: 12:33:33 PM~ ~Edited by: rkskipster on: 6/10/2013 at: 1:22:44 PM~
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| rkskipster 6/10/2013 12:44:03 PM | If I have 1 b***h , it would be that I wish capper had a way to separate claiming conditions. I love me some claimers. I use playlist thanx rick
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| Charli125 6/10/2013 2:10:27 PM | I also use HDW, but was not one of the original 100 so do not have access to jrating. I play very similarly to you. No big bets, just churning away. Mostly Win bets, some Place bets, and every once in a long while, a Show bet. I used to play a lot of horizontal wagers but found that I was losing my ass on them, so I've recently stopped playing those unless it's a big day with big pools, or I see a lot of value on a smaller day. Over that same period I bet 11.5K for a pre-rebate loss of 4.4% and a post-rebate profit of 1.1%. I'll echo the thread starter that it's so important to play with a rebate if you can. If I was losing 4-5% rather than winning 1%, I wouldn't be betting. I'm definitely not where I want to be, and I would like to refine my UDM's so that I have fewer plays, but more confidence in those plays so that I can up my bet size. Every time I attempt to do that though, I end up getting too small of a sample-size. It's a constant learning experience for me, and I'm constantly looking at different ways to do things, factors to add or remove, etc. It gives me confidence to hear that someone else is playing a similar style to me, and is doing it profitably. Thanks for the post. Charlie
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| rkskipster 6/10/2013 2:48:24 PM | Char125 how many udms do you use? Jrating is not in any of my udms but Aprob is. what adm do you use? I use amwager. Also most of my decisions to pull the trigger are decided by my upr. and no I have never changed my upr except when my computer crashed--- hint-- backup like jeff says I didn't rick
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| Charli125 6/10/2013 3:02:58 PM | Rick, I always backup! Weekly to my external hard-drive, and automatically to the internet. I also use amwager, and have been very happy. I didn't build a UPR, or use it until recently. I used JPR, and the other factors. But now, I use UPR as my primary decision maker. If I were to change it, I would keep a copy of the current version, and do extensive testing before making any changes, but it's not something I'm going to constantly tinker with. My UDM's on the other hand, are still being refined. As for number of UDM's, I have color-coded mine so that I have mustplay UDM's(about 25), Layered based on ROI(4), Layered based on PCT(3), MLOR3 based(5), and then informational ones to show things like med changes, etc. I know that I have too many, but I'm still trying to figure out how to deal with that. Thanks, Charlie
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| rkskipster 6/10/2013 4:43:26 PM | like I said I have 3 drivers , that my decision depends on #1upr-- look at ex. matrix I use that to make decisions . I really believe that you need to belive that YOU can do it-- hint simpler is better --rick --we really figure profit by roi u are on the cusp skip
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| Caveat 6/11/2013 11:04:15 PM | Charlie... let me see if I get this...you bet $11,500 for about 2 months and you got back 1.1 % which is a profit of $126.50.. correct?
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| Charli125 6/12/2013 10:28:39 AM | That's correct Caveat. Which is why I'm saying I have some work to do still.
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| Caveat 6/12/2013 11:18:25 AM | In the opening post , Rick says that hes making a living on betting horses.....GREAT to hear!!! Then you read: He bets 19K+ in a few months and got back 3% , which comes to $570, roughly.... Now I'm thinking: I don't get it , but to be in the black you need help from rebates and a big bankroll ???? To me this sounds scary...I certainly cant bet that much or live on that roi.. So what am I missing? Mike P.S. -I am in no way knocking you guys ..just trying to understand. When people first get the software and read and watch the stuff here...and you see Jeff make some UDM's that get higher and higher which each added factor, your mouth waters. Then you see seasoned vets posting stuff like this and roi"s like that.....................somethings missing!!
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| Charli125 6/12/2013 11:31:55 AM | Caveat, First off, not sure about Rick, but I wouldn't call myself a "seasoned veteran". I'd say I'm firmly in the "intermediate" group. I've only been betting for about 5 years. Some months I make more, some months less, and I'm certainly not making a living. It's also down to betting style. I would be better off betting fewer races, and more on those races. I also would be better off if I could become a good exotics player. Until i can get to that level of confidence though, I'm happy to eek out any profit I can get while betting as much as possible. Also, you don't need a big bankroll to bet that kind of money. you just need to be consistent. I bet 10-50 per bet, and start each day with a bankroll of 500. At the end of each day I transfer winnings out of my holding account, or more in to cover losses, but each day I have 500 to bet. Except for big days like the Breeders Cup or Triple Crown, I don't ever exceed that. I do however roll my bankroll over several times a day when I'm betting. As for needing rebates to be profitable, I'll say that EVERY professional I know gets rebates, and most would not be profitable without rebates. At an average of 4-5% rebate on WPS bets, and much higher on exotics, if you can break even with confidence, you can bet a lot more. If you take Rick's example, let's say that he was able to replicate that 3% win rate over a long period, and was betting into pools where he wouldn't hurt his prices. If he goes from betting 19K to 190K, he's now making 5,700 in two months instead of 570. While i couldn't quite live on that every 2 months, it's now getting close to being a living. Another reason Jeff's UDM's look more profitable than our records show, at least in my case, is bet size. When you run something through the data window you see a progressive bet size based on bankroll. I have yet to figure out how to do that with multiple UDM's, so I bet each UDM the same amount each time. That means that when I'm hitting a lot of races, I'm not making as much profit as I should be, and when I'm losing a lot of races, I'm losing more than I should be. Hope that helps. Questions and answers are always good to help each of us evaluate and improve our games.
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| Acorn54 6/12/2013 1:09:47 PM | I find it an honor to be amongst those who have the jcapper program it has been one pleasurable journey for me since I met jeff over the internet. although I have not met him in person I have had a few phone conversations with him and he has been beyond generous with his help. I have learned a great deal at the data window and probably too much by some psychiatrist's standards probably (lol) I have had one year when I made a few thousand using jcapper exclusively and getting 7% rebates on my win bets only. that was the year I was with pinnacle, and then they became history with the passage of the internet gambling gaming law. since then I have only come close to breakeven with usually a 2%-4% loss. it would be worse if I did not get some kind of rebate. all in all it is probably the most fun I have had, providing mental stimulation and excitement, and I have no regrets.
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| TPW 6/12/2013 7:51:17 PM | --quote: "My UDM's on the other hand, are still being refined. As for number of UDM's, I have color-coded mine so that I have mustplay UDM's(about 25), Layered based on ROI(4), Layered based on PCT(3), MLOR3 based(5), and then informational ones to show things like med changes, etc. I know that I have too many, but I'm still trying to figure out how to deal with that. "--end quote Charlie, I'm probably in the minority here, but I don't think having a lot of UDM's is necessarily a bad thing. I have many more than you and all are profitable, some produce very few plays, but that is fine with me as long as they produce results. I also have a number that sit on the bench and get added on my monthly review (some of the active also get deactivated), which takes me better part of a morning. I'm still using Brisnet as it would be virtually impossible for me to recreate my UDM's in HDW, purely from a time perspective. To me a good analogy is your stock portfolio. Highly unlikely your advisor would suggest you have a handful of stocks, likely that you would have a large selection spanning a number of sectors (in UDM's cases, across many areas such as speed, class, form etc.). I have spent the better part of 2 years, building UDM's based on situations and then identifying the factors that are most powerful in those situations. I probably still have another year of research to perform before I'm done. Then I want to work on improving my UPR. I've likely spent hundreds if not thousands of hours working in the window. I also color code mine into three levels of ROI, makes it very easy to spot playable races and tournament plays. Keep doing what your doing, one of the great things about JCapper is that I doubt any two users are using the software in the same manner. We may come up with some common plays, but there are times when you can differentiate yourself with some additional data window work. Terry
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| JimG 6/13/2013 10:46:30 AM | Caveat, Most people that I know that play horses lose at the endeavor. Most I know that win at the races have a less than 10% roi and that includes rebates. The key to making more money is the confidence to bet more money, and to do so without killing your odds. The first hurdle is to make a profit. Sounds like some here have cleared that huge hurdle and are to be congratulated. Long term ROI of 20% plus is stuff that RPM dreams are made of and not consistent with reality. Rick, Thanks for sharing. It was a good read. Like you I am one of the original 100 people. I am strictly recreational and enjoy contest playing. The pressure of squeaking out money long term at his endeavor is too stressful for me at this time. The risk of failure is too great. Like many of you, I feel honored to be a long time member here. I have learned much from many of you. Jeff has greatly added to my enjoyment of the races. For that, I am most thankful. Jim
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| rkskipster 6/13/2013 11:05:24 AM | In the opening post , Rick says that hes making a living on betting horses.....GREAT to hear!!! Then you read: He bets 19K+ in a few months and got back 3% , which comes to $570, roughly.... You misread, I said at one time for 5 yrs. , I made my living on the horses, but then life got in the way. I am strictly recreational now, but wanted to show that it is possible to supplement your income with betting. Also what other pastime can pay you ? rick
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| rkskipster 6/13/2013 11:06:53 AM | JimG thanks for the complement. rick
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| Charli125 6/13/2013 12:39:14 PM | The key to making more money is the confidence to bet more money, and to do so without killing your odds. The first hurdle is to make a profit. Thanks to everyone for the input. I agree completely with the above quote. I bet big sometimes, but I'm still attempting to up my overall level of confidence so that I feel confident increasing my bet size. I'm getting close, but I've set myself a goal of being profitable 5 months out of every 6 before increasing bet size. I work well with goals, so that works for me, maybe not for everyone though.
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| Caveat 6/16/2013 10:09:12 AM | Thanks guys for chiming in with your overall results and your way of doing it.. I'd like to hear from Jeff on his thoughts on how he does and possibly on some of what he knows other are doing.. mike
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| jeff 6/18/2013 12:56:06 PM | Just above 1.06 after rebate. That's where I ended up last year. (On track to wind up in a similar place this year.) I actually do have a handful of current UDMs that have performed exceptionally well going forward after I created them. Two of them are actually in the 30/30 club after nearly 1000 plays. (That's 30 pct wins and 1.30 flat bet roi.) I can hear the first question already... Q. Jeff, if you have 30/30 UDMs how in the world do you wind up the year at 1.06? A. Easy. Those aren't my only UDMs and they only produce a limited number of plays. I've had some really interesting phone conversations with players I consider to be whales. I've been told that given the sheer number of tickets I bet spanning a wide variety of tracks, races, and pool types that 1.06 after rebate is pretty good. As to differences between their way of operating and my way of operating... Me... My play is "tighter" than theirs. I make extensive use of UDMs and seldom venture outside of horses flagged by them. Them... A few of the better known whales employ a pricing model. I am told the better performing pricing models are based on logistic regression. Every horse in the race has a strike price that if met has them willing to bet that horse (even if it's not a contender in their eyes.) Maybe a better way of saying it is that every horse is a contender given the right price. In my opinion, that goes a long way towards explaining why the $100.00 J1 winner has all but disappeared. The whale pricing models are able to detect those horses as overlays. Unlike you and me, THEIR response (as late as possible in the betting) is to bet EVERY overlay horse flagged by their pricing model down to "fair odds" factoring in estimated final pool size. They do this for every pool. Not just the win pool. This is both good for us and bad for us. It's bad for us because it drastically reduces the number of extreme overlays. However, it creates opportunity in the exotic pools because what they do is inefficient. See my comments 2 posts down from this one about my foray into the TRI and SUPER pools. They use the ALL button too. I'm convinced that can be exploited through proper ticket structure. I posted this next part in the private area of the board a while back... A few of them are track specific (whereas I am not.) They play a grand master's game of chess in their chosen arena. A few of them watch lots of replays and it is their trip notes combined with specialized local knowledge of their chosen track that provides the basis for their edge. Whereas with me it's trends related to public betting behavior that I notice in the Data Window. What they have in common: NONE of the whale players I know are afraid of exotics. ALL of them tell me that as difficulty of bet type goes up so does opportunity for profit. (Benter even wrote about this in one of his papers.) The whale players I know each have one other thing in common. They are able to bet a LOT of money because they have a LOT of money. (Not that all of them always had money.) When (not if) they run into a bad streak that sees their bankroll get cut in half it doesn't seem to be a significant event. Last year one player told me he was in the midst of a 3 month losing streak that had surpassed mid 6 figures. The amount of bankroll draw down didn't faze him. He posted up more money and kept betting - and eventually played through it. Me? The reason I am not a whale is purely a function of available bankroll. If I tap out I am done. Because I don't have the ability to replace significant bankroll I have to manage my money accordingly - make that carefully. When (not if) I hit the inevitable losing streak I don't have a trust fund to fall back on. I have to make my bankroll survive the event. And as things turn around again afterwards (as they inevitably will) I have to make the bankroll bounce back and then some. My Framework: I began my current foray into betting horses in 2003. Hard to believe that was 10 years ago already. At the time, I only had a set amount of money. And looking back now it wasn't enough. I knew from experience that bankroll would trend mostly upward but fluctuate in a never ending series of ups and downs along the way. I also knew that living expenses needed to be covered no matter what - and that the state of the bankroll was my problem and not the guy fixing my car's problem. Further, I was in my mid 40's at the time, and still very much employable so I wanted a way to return to the programmer for hire thing in the 9-5 world should this whole betting on horses thing not pan out. Safety Net I set aside 9 months of living expenses in a checking account. This was my safety net, money to ONLY be touched in the event the bankroll was lost and it was time for Plan B. The objective was to give myself the ability to cover my own living expenses while looking for and landing that next programming job. You may not know this, but JCapper belongs in this section about a safety net. No, not any sort of income I might derive from it. One of the reasons I started JCapper was that I wanted the ability to look a prospective employer in the eye and walk him or her through recent well written code samples pulled from any of the then 100's (now 1000's) of functions and algorithms in JCapper. If you are a programmer looking for work, expect to be asked the following question: "Can you walk me through one of your recent code samples? (And explain to me like I'm a 3 year old what it does and why you wrote it the way that you did?)" Note: I hope this part about the importance of a safety net is not lost on you if you are considering making such a life move yourself. Living Expenses I set aside another 3 months in the checking account for CURRENT living expenses. I knew going in that after the first 3 months, living expenses had to be covered by withdrawals from bankroll. I also knew that bankroll fluctuates. I adopted a rule win or lose: Every month towards the end of the month, if there wasn't at least 12 months living expenses in the checking account (3 months current plus a 9 month safety net) I made a withdrawal from bankroll to fund my living expenses. Also, along the way, any time bankroll went up beyond my pain threshold - a withdrawal was made. In retrospect, over the years that move has cost me money as my bet sizing is based on pct of bankroll and the result of that move has seen me betting less than I otherwise would have. However, that move has also paid off in that I get better sleep these nights than I used to (or otherwise might have.) Bankroll Everything else beyond Safety Net and Living Expenses was designated as Bankroll. The purpose of bankroll is to generate income. I have written extensively (both at Paceadvantage and here at the JCapper Message Board) about how important it is to be able to grow a bankroll. If you are serious about betting and haven't read those posts I suggest you make use of the search button and check them out. Framework-- The above Framework of Safety Net, Living Expenses, and Bankroll provides the player a stress free environment (or as stress free as possible short of having a trust fund to fall back on) in which to operate. Short tangent: Now that I'm 10 years older, based on horror stories about age discrimination from friends my own age who are actually looking for work, I suspect my own job prospects aren't what they used to be. However, the main objective of this Framework is stress reduction. This is important on so many levels. Crystal clear thinking is an absolute must for successful horse race betting. I contend that emotions have the ability to cloud judgment and therefore have no place in MY horse race betting. At the very least, I submit to you the argument that no player has ever done his or her best work when faced with the prospect of financial ruin - or betting money that is immediately needed to pay the bills. I contend that putting a Framework in place similar to the one laid out above is a requirement for the player who wants to operate in a professional manner. A Few of My Own Cardinal Rules Bet Sizing The first rule of bet sizing is: Never under any circumstances overbet your bankroll. Why is bet sizing so important? Take any set amount of money, subtract 1 percent, and you are left with 99 percent. Do the math through a protracted losing streak while refiguring bank size after each losing bet and you will discover that a $10k bank is still 70 plus percent intact after a string of 30 consecutive losses at 1% of bank per bet. Suppose you are an exceptionally gifted player and your handicapping produces a sizeable edge (on the order of say 1.20 roi pre rebate with a solid hit rate of say 30% winners outright.) If you were to start with a $10k bankroll and bet 10% of available bank on each qualifying play, believe it or not your likelihood of tapping out after 1000 plays actually approaches statistical certainty. Remember the part above about not having a trust fund? And how important it is to make the bankroll survive so that you are in a position to bounce back (and then some) once things turn around? In my own case significant bankroll is not something easily replaced. I HAVE to treat bankroll with respect because there is simply nothing else for me to fall back on. Emotion Emotion, both good and bad, has the ability to cloud your judgment. Never under any circumstances let your emotions get the better of you. Recent example from this past weekend: Couldn't have predicted it ahead of time but Saturday was a horrible betting day for me. I had maybe a dozen horses at good odds take the lead late on the turn and begin to open up only to fall apart by mid stretch. After about the eighth time I saw this happen the absurd thought popped into my head that the track supers at every track in North America had been on a conference call that morning and somehow conspired to harrow their track surfaces deep enough to kill off the speed. To say I was agitated would have been an understatement. (My final reward for getting worked up was the privilege of betting on a horse that opened up on the field at the top of the stretch in the last race at EVD only to see the track surface stop that one in its tracks too.) I'm only human. After 11 hours of betting and losing every single race that I played in almost exactly the same manner I will freely admit I had all but lost it. I woke up Sunday morning and part of me was still reeling. When I saw people raving on Paceadvantage about the win by KOBES BACK after being left at the gate some part of me wanted to stand atop the railing on the edge of my balcony and scream at the top of my lungs how track management at HOL can take their deeply harrowed dead rail anti speed biased synthetic track surface and shove it up their collective asses. I will also tell you I certainly wasn't looking forward to another day of betting early speed on dead rail surfaces. My emotional state was so bad I actually considered deactivating some of my current UDMs in favor of a handful explicitly designed for the speed tiring surface. Instead I walked out my front door and headed for the beach. Nothing clears your head like a good run on the sand. Afterwards I stopped for a cup of coffee at this little place. While waiting in line, two college girls (one of them had a 4 month old golden retriever puppy named Ruby on a leash) jumped into line behind me. I got down on one knee and she went nuts. (The puppy not the girls - although they did get a good laugh at Ruby's expression when I cupped my hands over my mouth and made this kazoo sound.) Just what the doctor ordered. Now properly caffeinated and after a run on the beach followed by some horseplay and suddenly it's a brand new day! I'm in the right frame of mind and it's time to play horses again. I get home and fire up the Live Play Module. Two hours and 5 winners later I'm solidly ahead and decide to call it a day. This morning I downloaded CSV files from my rebate house and imported them into the WagerHistory Module. After 20 minutes of workup I ran some reports. The reports tell me what I already know. Despite the horrible beating I took on Saturday I finished ahead for the weekend. About 1.0628 after rebate for Fri-Sat-Sun. (Right at my own long term average oddly enough.) Emotions have no place in horse race betting. No way do I make the plays I did yesterday (and bounce back) unless I find a way to hit my own reset button. -jp . ~Edited by: jeff on: 6/17/2013 at: 7:59:59 PM~ ~Edited by: jeff on: 6/18/2013 at: 12:56:06 PM~
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| JimG 6/17/2013 8:41:39 PM | Jeff, Enjoyed your response a great deal. A few curiosity questions, if you will indulge me. Does the 1.06 include exotic betting? or is that win-only betting? Are there tracks you do not play, for whatever reason? And finally, do you normally make all your plays that come up for the day or do you still watch races live, taking into account their looks on the track, when making your plays? If it is the latter, I presume real life gets in the way at times and how do you handle missing a nice udm play because your attention was diverted elsewhere? Jim
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| jeff 6/18/2013 11:57:20 AM | Exotics... Plenty of exotics in there Jim. Win only doesn't describe me. That said, I did better in some of the exotics than others. DD, EXA, and P4 treated me well - I think mainly because I found some early success with those (compared to the others) and got into a pattern of putting more of my focus there than the others because of what I saw in the WagerHistory Module. For example DD vs. P3... UDM plays at multiple tracks have a funny way of running on top of each other. It takes more time and energy to put P3 tickets together than it does DD. With so many tracks offering rolling DD these days plus the number of times I flipped the video feed over to the track of my next play only to find them already at the gate and loading - it shouldn't come as a surprise that taking the path of least resistance (bet the DD but skip the P3) became a habit for me. P4... Oddly enough those times that I did put P4 tickets together I did really well. Most of the ones I hit happened on days when UDM singles were low in number - offering up the chance to put some thought and effort into the other 3 legs of the sequence without risk of missing a play somewhere else. EXA... Believe it or not I was right at break even pre rebate on UDM singles in the EXA pool. Avg exacta rebate runs about 8% (do the math.) Not so good were the EXA saver tickets I made. I wrote about these in the WagerHistory Module Help Doc (and still had trouble not making them) mainly because of some R&D I did several years ago showing I was better off using the EXA pool as a hedge vs. using the PLACE pool to do the same. Wish I had avoided the EXA saver bet altogether as those were a net loser for me after rebate. TRI and SUPER... I made a mistake diving into these without adequate R&D first. Buoyed by a handful of big hits in large fields the prior year I incorrectly figured I would be profitable starting with the same ticket structure I was already using for UDM singles in the exacta pool and adding ALL for the 3rd slot in the TRI pool and ALL-ALL for 3rd and 4th slots in the SUPER POOL. Absolutely convinced there is serious money to be made with these but failed to devote the necessary R&D time. Paid a steep price for jumping in head first without doing that. Have stopped playing these for the time being. P5 and P6... Played just a handful of times without ever cashing. Those low takeout P5 pools have massive appeal to me but require substantially more coverage than DD or P3. Win and WP... Am always experimenting with a wide variety of new reasons for playing a horse beyond strategies in my toolbox that have already proven themselves such as certain UDM singles at or above predetermined cutoffs that are visible in the Live Play Module. Just like in the TRI and SUPER pools, going over my WagerHistory has pointed out some weaknesses in my game. Front and center among those is the need to "paper trade" new ideas first before risking actual money on them. Am doing much better with that lately now that I can see what happens with my new ideas that "should" work but somehow don't. Physical appearance of the horse... This is an even bigger part of my game now vs. back when I first started writing about it. Obviously, some track feeds are better for this than others. Ideally, I want the opportunity to see the horses in the walking ring, in post parades, in pre-race warm ups, facing up to the gate, and a head on view of the horse actually standing in the gate. I'm still using a simple (subjective) phys score between 1 and 5... with 5 being highest and 1 being lowest... and 3.0 now meaning that I didn't get a good enough view of the horse to make an accurate assessment. The cool part is I am tracking this in the WagerHistory Module and can now SEE not just that it's an actual difference maker - but how much difference it makes PROVIDED I get to see the horses I am betting on ahead of time. On life getting in the way... I'll use an analogy from the days when I used to count cards. Every casino has lots of 21 tables. It might be a bit extreme but you can't possibly play every hand of 21 dealt in the casino that day. However, you CAN play the hands dealt at the table directly in front of you. So that's what you do. And you do it until you've had your fill of second hand smoke and bad hands and bonehead moves by the other players at the table and then you stop and take a break - and if you've executed your game plan you discover more often than not you earned some money in exchange for your time. That's how I approach horses. If I'm playing BEL-CRC-WOX-APX-SUF-DEL because those all start and end at similar times - and if I have made plans to be somewhere else later that same day - there are plenty of right decisions I need to make at those tracks in the present moment. So, just like I wrote about in The Sphere, I draw a circle around those tracks - and put my intense focus on everything relevant inside of that circle - while at the same time making a conscious effort to ignore everything outside of that circle. That part of my game hasn't changed. -jp . ~Edited by: jeff on: 6/18/2013 at: 11:57:20 AM~
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| JimG 6/18/2013 1:53:27 PM | Jeff, Thanks for taking the time. Of all the people I have "met" online over 15 years that claim to profit from the races, you come across most to me as the real deal. It is nice to know how you approach the business. I am sincerely happy that you profit from your betting and your business. You deserve it for sharing JCapper with us. While I have not profited from the races long term, JCapper has made my play very enjoyable and allowed me to do well in a few tourneys along the way. In addition I have made some good friends on the forum. For that I am very grateful. Jim
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| Charli125 6/18/2013 2:46:26 PM | That's good stuff. I've always wanted to add some physicality to my handicapping. Working a day job though, makes that difficult. I still struggle with bet sizing since on a work day, I put bets in 3 or 4 times max depending on when scratches are made. On a weekend I have so many tracks going at once, I'm just not sure how I could keep up with it. Jeff, regarding bet size, do you adjust bet size after each bet, each day, etc? And do you look at bet size by bet or overall?
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| jeff 6/19/2013 12:03:14 PM | My preferred way is to think of the bet size as a number that is equal to WIN + EXOTICS. Ideally, both the WIN and EXOTICS parts are proven profit makers based on WagerHistory reports. (Which is why I don't try to break them out under separate banks. Although there is nothing wrong in doing that if you so decide.) I've tried it a number of different ways...
-jp . ~Edited by: jeff on: 6/19/2013 at: 12:03:14 PM~
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| Charli125 6/19/2013 12:05:34 PM | Interesting, that's very helpful. I think instead of re-balancing at the end of each day, I'll start changing bet amount each day. Keeps it easy for my work schedule since I just have to calculate once, yet allows me to take advantage of hot streaks/avoid getting crushed on cold streaks.
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