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| By | Cherry Pick? | |||||
| Caveat 8/29/2012 5:26:19 PM | Hello All... I have a UDM with these results.... I got advise to not cherry pick the successful tracks.. Should I weed out the bad results?
Mike
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| Charli125 8/29/2012 5:54:51 PM | Mike, I'd try looking at a larger subsection first. Those results are over a very small time period, so I wouldn't trust them. Try running it over another quarter and see what happens. If the results are the same, you might have something. I wouldn't be too quick to chop off tracks unless you verify that they're consistently good/bad.
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| Caveat 8/29/2012 6:07:14 PM | thxs Charlie.. this waiting is killing me..LOL Mike
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| Windoor 9/3/2012 10:42:48 AM | I have some UDM's (spot plays) that are very dependent on track and "time of year". That is, I can find consistent results from one year to the next for the same time period and track. A play that works very well for me in the fall (4th quarter) does not produce good results in the spring or at some other tracks. I am still researching this, but so far, it appears to be valid. A lot of plays I had given up on, are now back it the loop to try again at the same track and in the same time period. I am even considering that a rather warm winter compared to a colder one might play a role at some tracks, as in changing track variants. Knowing (or at least a good guess) of "today's" surface/track variant can greatly increase the win percent. While some horses can show better speed, they can easily lose to a stronger horse with more stamina over a tiring track. Or so I believe. That's why I think three years of data should be the minimum you look at, before drawing any conclusions. Anything that can help predict today's surface is sure to be a plus. Regards, Windoor
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| Charli125 9/4/2012 5:18:34 PM | I too have a couple of UDM's that only work for certain months. I have a Q1 UDM that's consistently good over the last 3 years, but only for Jan-Mar.
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| Caveat 9/5/2012 7:20:22 AM | Thxs gentlemen... I'll take note and wont delete them when they go south for the winter ;) mike
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| CLDavisMD 9/12/2012 3:36:36 PM | Some tracks that run all year do significant track maintenance in the spring and fall, which is a possible reason why some UDMs work at certain times of the year and not at others.
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| ArlJim78 9/19/2012 8:34:38 PM | I used to do a lot of track filtering, but I've gotten away from it. Some of the tracks showing poor results in the list posted here, might over the next year show big positive results. If the UDM generates a lot of plays then I might filter out some tracks based on a year or two worth of data. but in general I like to keep the UDMs as open as possible in terms of the tracks. I find it more robust, less likely to spike up and down
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| ArlJim78 9/19/2012 8:35:53 PM | Oh my, taking another look at the data posted I would say it's way to early to even consider filtering by track. not enough plays.
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