| By |
Creating a UDM |
Caveat
8/15/2012
11:51:12 AM |
Hi All...
I went by way of opposite the usual plus factors...
making a negative UDM....
I have a month and a half of data....
I started with the first 2 morning line odds horses and stopping when they go off at 9/2...(I'm not even sure if I did it right )
I get something like 9700 plays....
Now , what bothers me is that any factor off Key List dismisses at least half of the original amount and not even factors them in as a false favorite...
I'm I correct in this assumption?
| code: | UDM Definition: X_LOW_ODDS
Divisor: # UDM Def Divisor: 999
Surface Req: *ANY Surface*
Distance Req: *ANY Distance*
Lifetime Starts: MinVal= 6 MaxVal= 999
Odds Range: MinVal= -999.00 MaxVal=4.50
Running Style: ALL
query start: 8/15/2012 12:22:45 PM
query end: 8/15/2012 12:23:22 PM
elapsed time: 37 seconds
Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999 Min Odds = -999.00 Max Odds = 4.50 Odds Cap: None
Filters Applied: [ALL[MAX2-
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\2012\pL_profile.txt)
Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 16045.80 16620.30 16676.90
Bet -19512.00 -19512.00 -19512.00
Gain -3466.20 -2891.70 -2835.10
Wins 2920 5043 6315
Plays 9756 9756 9756
PCT .2993 .5169 .6473
ROI 0.8224 0.8518 0.8547
Avg Mut 5.50 3.30 2.64
****************************************************************************************
Key Factors Rank = 1 sorted by Factor Name Run Date: 8/15/2012 12:23:22 PM
****************************************************************************************
WIN WIN WIN PLACE PLACE
FACTOR PLAYS WINS PCT IMPACT ROI PLACES PCT ROI
****************************************************************************************
AFR 2083 711 0.3413 1.1403 0.8748 1156 0.555 0.8761
ALCHEMY 3243 1155 0.3562 1.1901 0.8389 1873 0.5776 0.8857
AVGBRISFIG 3402 1185 0.3483 1.1637 0.8239 1944 0.5714 0.8706
AVGE1 1941 644 0.3318 1.1086 0.8223 1075 0.5538 0.8733
BESTE2 2139 746 0.3488 1.1654 0.8873 1219 0.5699 0.8975
BETTORSTOTEPROB 4763 1812 0.3804 1.271 0.8324 2839 0.5961 0.8796
BRIS10 3258 1167 0.3582 1.1968 0.8785 1905 0.5847 0.9044
BRIS3 3576 1262 0.3529 1.1791 0.8332 2054 0.5744 0.8752
CFA 2581 895 0.3468 1.1587 0.8374 1463 0.5668 0.8747
CLASSCOMPOS 2358 821 0.3482 1.1634 0.8372 1316 0.5581 0.859
CLASSCONSENSUS 3556 1294 0.3639 1.2158 0.8615 2032 0.5714 0.8689
CLOSINGRATIO 1579 514 0.3255 1.0875 0.8458 853 0.5402 0.8691
CMI 2495 916 0.3671 1.2265 0.8874 1426 0.5715 0.8748
COMPOUNDAP 2854 1013 0.3549 1.1858 0.8481 1633 0.5722 0.8785
COMPOUNDE1 1946 683 0.351 1.1727 0.8599 1090 0.5601 0.8817
COMPOUNDE2 2321 819 0.3529 1.1791 0.858 1328 0.5722 0.893
COMPOUNDLATE 2387 794 0.3326 1.1112 0.8469 1341 0.5618 0.8712
COMPOUNDPERCENTE 730 192 0.263 0.8787 0.7419 339 0.4644 0.786
COMPOUNDSP 3146 1112 0.3535 1.1811 0.8498 1825 0.5801 0.8877
COMPOUNDTT 2119 705 0.3327 1.1116 0.8231 1167 0.5507 0.8531
CONSISTENCY 2708 922 0.3405 1.1376 0.809 1482 0.5473 0.8363
CPACE 2426 853 0.3516 1.1747 0.8482 1380 0.5688 0.8806
CXN 2908 975 0.3353 1.1203 0.8073 1595 0.5485 0.8432
EARLYCONSENSUS 2353 825 0.3506 1.1714 0.854 1341 0.5699 0.8867
FASTSLOWFINAL 3440 1208 0.3512 1.1734 0.8511 1961 0.5701 0.8791
FASTSLOWPACE 2309 751 0.3252 1.0865 0.8015 1274 0.5518 0.8638
FIGCONSENSUS 3695 1311 0.3548 1.1854 0.8344 2114 0.5721 0.8721
FORM 1672 556 0.3325 1.1109 0.8748 908 0.5431 0.8673
FORMCONSENSUS 2038 690 0.3386 1.1313 0.884 1124 0.5515 0.8744
JPR 3412 1205 0.3532 1.1801 0.8506 1949 0.5712 0.8858
JPRCLASS 3690 1359 0.3683 1.2305 0.8719 2135 0.5786 0.8829
JPRMLPROB 3979 1393 0.3501 1.1697 0.8441 2257 0.5672 0.8825
JPRTOTEPROB 4857 1831 0.377 1.2596 0.8399 2897 0.5965 0.8897
LASTRACEBRISFIG 3601 1258 0.3493 1.167 0.8389 2059 0.5718 0.8792
LATECONSENSUS 2940 998 0.3395 1.1343 0.8575 1659 0.5643 0.8739
LATEPACE3 2561 831 0.3245 1.0842 0.8203 1432 0.5592 0.8743
LATEPACEINLAST 2443 783 0.3205 1.0708 0.8212 1356 0.5551 0.8724
LATESLANT 2906 994 0.3421 1.143 0.8264 1632 0.5616 0.8598
LOGICALFIG 2675 929 0.3473 1.1604 0.8296 1521 0.5686 0.8829
MORNINGLINE 5411 1859 0.3436 1.148 0.8317 3076 0.5685 0.8896
OPTIMIZATION 2551 898 0.352 1.1761 0.8687 1444 0.5661 0.8775
PACEFIG 2780 971 0.3493 1.167 0.8371 1594 0.5734 0.883
PACEFIG_2F_INLAST 1968 629 0.3196 1.0678 0.791 1065 0.5412 0.8559
PACEFIG_4F_INLAST 2207 728 0.3299 1.1022 0.8033 1216 0.551 0.8581
PACEFIT 2620 915 0.3492 1.1667 0.8319 1504 0.574 0.8848
PACELINE 3606 1279 0.3547 1.1851 0.8434 2090 0.5796 0.8874
PAL 2984 971 0.3254 1.0872 0.8266 1646 0.5516 0.8647
PCLASS 2933 1032 0.3519 1.1757 0.8518 1659 0.5656 0.8734
PCTE 856 249 0.2909 0.9719 0.8438 428 0.5 0.8504
PEDIGREE 1855 622 0.3353 1.1203 0.865 1047 0.5644 0.8944
PMI 3004 1100 0.3662 1.2235 0.8647 1760 0.5859 0.8936
POST TIME FAVS 4915 1862 0.3788 1.2656 0.8289 2930 0.5961 0.8786
POWERCONSENSUS 3823 1357 0.355 1.1861 0.8381 2215 0.5794 0.8886
PRATING 3329 1214 0.3647 1.2185 0.8639 1929 0.5795 0.8849
PRIME (PSR) 4569 1674 0.3664 1.2242 0.8566 2662 0.5826 0.8859
PSCORE_HDW 2775 991 0.3571 1.1931 0.8665 1596 0.5751 0.8965
QRATING 3912 1447 0.3699 1.2359 0.8644 2312 0.591 0.9012
QSPEEDPOINTS 2613 868 0.3322 1.1099 0.8438 1421 0.5438 0.8674
QSPEEDPOINTS_ALT 2757 901 0.3268 1.0919 0.8289 1494 0.5419 0.865
RACESTRENGTH 3235 1136 0.3512 1.1734 0.839 1871 0.5784 0.8866
STAMINA 2025 629 0.3106 1.0377 0.8197 1084 0.5353 0.8491
SUSTAINED 2728 927 0.3398 1.1353 0.85 1542 0.5652 0.8804
TPACE 2748 952 0.3464 1.1574 0.8324 1528 0.556 0.851
TURNTIME 1974 626 0.3171 1.0595 0.8089 1073 0.5436 0.8549
UPR 3456 1209 0.3498 1.1687 0.8389 1971 0.5703 0.8817
UPRMLPROB 4000 1396 0.349 1.166 0.8351 2267 0.5668 0.8772
UPRTOTEPROB 4854 1826 0.3762 1.2569 0.8376 2880 0.5933 0.8851
USERFACTOR1 9756 2920 0.2993 1 0.8224 5043 0.5169 0.8518
USERFACTOR2 9756 2920 0.2993 1 0.8224 5043 0.5169 0.8518
USERFACTOR3 9756 2920 0.2993 1 0.8224 5043 0.5169 0.8518
USERFACTOR4 9756 2920 0.2993 1 0.8224 5043 0.5169 0.8518
USERFACTOR5 9756 2920 0.2993 1 0.8224 5043 0.5169 0.8518
WEIGHTEDFIG 2082 710 0.341 1.1393 0.8342 1163 0.5586 0.868
WILLTOWIN 1260 379 0.3008 1.005 0.8225 669 0.531 0.8578
WOBRILL 2549 842 0.3303 1.1036 0.8685 1376 0.5398 0.8589
****************************************************************************************
75 Factors from file: C:\2012\pL_profile.txt
****************************************************************************************
****************************************************************************************
Key Factors Rank = 1 sorted by Impact Value Run Date: 8/15/2012 12:23:22 PM
****************************************************************************************
WIN WIN WIN PLACE PLACE
FACTOR PLAYS WINS PCT IMPACT ROI PLACES PCT ROI
****************************************************************************************
BETTORSTOTEPROB 4763 1812 0.3804 1.271 0.8324 2839 0.5961 0.8796
POST TIME FAVS 4915 1862 0.3788 1.2656 0.8289 2930 0.5961 0.8786
JPRTOTEPROB 4857 1831 0.377 1.2596 0.8399 2897 0.5965 0.8897
UPRTOTEPROB 4854 1826 0.3762 1.2569 0.8376 2880 0.5933 0.8851
QRATING 3912 1447 0.3699 1.2359 0.8644 2312 0.591 0.9012
JPRCLASS 3690 1359 0.3683 1.2305 0.8719 2135 0.5786 0.8829
CMI 2495 916 0.3671 1.2265 0.8874 1426 0.5715 0.8748
PRIME (PSR) 4569 1674 0.3664 1.2242 0.8566 2662 0.5826 0.8859
PMI 3004 1100 0.3662 1.2235 0.8647 1760 0.5859 0.8936
PRATING 3329 1214 0.3647 1.2185 0.8639 1929 0.5795 0.8849
CLASSCONSENSUS 3556 1294 0.3639 1.2158 0.8615 2032 0.5714 0.8689
BRIS10 3258 1167 0.3582 1.1968 0.8785 1905 0.5847 0.9044
PSCORE_HDW 2775 991 0.3571 1.1931 0.8665 1596 0.5751 0.8965
ALCHEMY 3243 1155 0.3562 1.1901 0.8389 1873 0.5776 0.8857
POWERCONSENSUS 3823 1357 0.355 1.1861 0.8381 2215 0.5794 0.8886
COMPOUNDAP 2854 1013 0.3549 1.1858 0.8481 1633 0.5722 0.8785
FIGCONSENSUS 3695 1311 0.3548 1.1854 0.8344 2114 0.5721 0.8721
PACELINE 3606 1279 0.3547 1.1851 0.8434 2090 0.5796 0.8874
COMPOUNDSP 3146 1112 0.3535 1.1811 0.8498 1825 0.5801 0.8877
JPR 3412 1205 0.3532 1.1801 0.8506 1949 0.5712 0.8858
BRIS3 3576 1262 0.3529 1.1791 0.8332 2054 0.5744 0.8752
COMPOUNDE2 2321 819 0.3529 1.1791 0.858 1328 0.5722 0.893
OPTIMIZATION 2551 898 0.352 1.1761 0.8687 1444 0.5661 0.8775
PCLASS 2933 1032 0.3519 1.1757 0.8518 1659 0.5656 0.8734
CPACE 2426 853 0.3516 1.1747 0.8482 1380 0.5688 0.8806
FASTSLOWFINAL 3440 1208 0.3512 1.1734 0.8511 1961 0.5701 0.8791
RACESTRENGTH 3235 1136 0.3512 1.1734 0.839 1871 0.5784 0.8866
COMPOUNDE1 1946 683 0.351 1.1727 0.8599 1090 0.5601 0.8817
EARLYCONSENSUS 2353 825 0.3506 1.1714 0.854 1341 0.5699 0.8867
JPRMLPROB 3979 1393 0.3501 1.1697 0.8441 2257 0.5672 0.8825
UPR 3456 1209 0.3498 1.1687 0.8389 1971 0.5703 0.8817
LASTRACEBRISFIG 3601 1258 0.3493 1.167 0.8389 2059 0.5718 0.8792
PACEFIG 2780 971 0.3493 1.167 0.8371 1594 0.5734 0.883
PACEFIT 2620 915 0.3492 1.1667 0.8319 1504 0.574 0.8848
UPRMLPROB 4000 1396 0.349 1.166 0.8351 2267 0.5668 0.8772
BESTE2 2139 746 0.3488 1.1654 0.8873 1219 0.5699 0.8975
AVGBRISFIG 3402 1185 0.3483 1.1637 0.8239 1944 0.5714 0.8706
CLASSCOMPOS 2358 821 0.3482 1.1634 0.8372 1316 0.5581 0.859
LOGICALFIG 2675 929 0.3473 1.1604 0.8296 1521 0.5686 0.8829
CFA 2581 895 0.3468 1.1587 0.8374 1463 0.5668 0.8747
TPACE 2748 952 0.3464 1.1574 0.8324 1528 0.556 0.851
MORNINGLINE 5411 1859 0.3436 1.148 0.8317 3076 0.5685 0.8896
LATESLANT 2906 994 0.3421 1.143 0.8264 1632 0.5616 0.8598
AFR 2083 711 0.3413 1.1403 0.8748 1156 0.555 0.8761
WEIGHTEDFIG 2082 710 0.341 1.1393 0.8342 1163 0.5586 0.868
CONSISTENCY 2708 922 0.3405 1.1376 0.809 1482 0.5473 0.8363
SUSTAINED 2728 927 0.3398 1.1353 0.85 1542 0.5652 0.8804
LATECONSENSUS 2940 998 0.3395 1.1343 0.8575 1659 0.5643 0.8739
FORMCONSENSUS 2038 690 0.3386 1.1313 0.884 1124 0.5515 0.8744
PEDIGREE 1855 622 0.3353 1.1203 0.865 1047 0.5644 0.8944
CXN 2908 975 0.3353 1.1203 0.8073 1595 0.5485 0.8432
COMPOUNDTT 2119 705 0.3327 1.1116 0.8231 1167 0.5507 0.8531
COMPOUNDLATE 2387 794 0.3326 1.1112 0.8469 1341 0.5618 0.8712
FORM 1672 556 0.3325 1.1109 0.8748 908 0.5431 0.8673
QSPEEDPOINTS 2613 868 0.3322 1.1099 0.8438 1421 0.5438 0.8674
AVGE1 1941 644 0.3318 1.1086 0.8223 1075 0.5538 0.8733
WOBRILL 2549 842 0.3303 1.1036 0.8685 1376 0.5398 0.8589
PACEFIG_4F_INLAST 2207 728 0.3299 1.1022 0.8033 1216 0.551 0.8581
QSPEEDPOINTS_ALT 2757 901 0.3268 1.0919 0.8289 1494 0.5419 0.865
CLOSINGRATIO 1579 514 0.3255 1.0875 0.8458 853 0.5402 0.8691
PAL 2984 971 0.3254 1.0872 0.8266 1646 0.5516 0.8647
FASTSLOWPACE 2309 751 0.3252 1.0865 0.8015 1274 0.5518 0.8638
LATEPACE3 2561 831 0.3245 1.0842 0.8203 1432 0.5592 0.8743
LATEPACEINLAST 2443 783 0.3205 1.0708 0.8212 1356 0.5551 0.8724
PACEFIG_2F_INLAST 1968 629 0.3196 1.0678 0.791 1065 0.5412 0.8559
TURNTIME 1974 626 0.3171 1.0595 0.8089 1073 0.5436 0.8549
STAMINA 2025 629 0.3106 1.0377 0.8197 1084 0.5353 0.8491
WILLTOWIN 1260 379 0.3008 1.005 0.8225 669 0.531 0.8578
USERFACTOR2 9756 2920 0.2993 1 0.8224 5043 0.5169 0.8518
USERFACTOR5 9756 2920 0.2993 1 0.8224 5043 0.5169 0.8518
USERFACTOR3 9756 2920 0.2993 1 0.8224 5043 0.5169 0.8518
USERFACTOR1 9756 2920 0.2993 1 0.8224 5043 0.5169 0.8518
USERFACTOR4 9756 2920 0.2993 1 0.8224 5043 0.5169 0.8518
PCTE 856 249 0.2909 0.9719 0.8438 428 0.5 0.8504
COMPOUNDPERCENTE 730 192 0.263 0.8787 0.7419 339 0.4644 0.786
****************************************************************************************
75 Factors from file: C:\2012\pL_profile.txt
****************************************************************************************
****************************************************************************************
Key Factors Rank = 1 sorted by Win ROI Run Date: 8/15/2012 12:23:22 PM
****************************************************************************************
WIN WIN WIN PLACE PLACE
FACTOR PLAYS WINS PCT IMPACT ROI PLACES PCT ROI
****************************************************************************************
CMI 2495 916 0.3671 1.2265 0.8874 1426 0.5715 0.8748
BESTE2 2139 746 0.3488 1.1654 0.8873 1219 0.5699 0.8975
FORMCONSENSUS 2038 690 0.3386 1.1313 0.884 1124 0.5515 0.8744
BRIS10 3258 1167 0.3582 1.1968 0.8785 1905 0.5847 0.9044
FORM 1672 556 0.3325 1.1109 0.8748 908 0.5431 0.8673
AFR 2083 711 0.3413 1.1403 0.8748 1156 0.555 0.8761
JPRCLASS 3690 1359 0.3683 1.2305 0.8719 2135 0.5786 0.8829
OPTIMIZATION 2551 898 0.352 1.1761 0.8687 1444 0.5661 0.8775
WOBRILL 2549 842 0.3303 1.1036 0.8685 1376 0.5398 0.8589
PSCORE_HDW 2775 991 0.3571 1.1931 0.8665 1596 0.5751 0.8965
PEDIGREE 1855 622 0.3353 1.1203 0.865 1047 0.5644 0.8944
PMI 3004 1100 0.3662 1.2235 0.8647 1760 0.5859 0.8936
QRATING 3912 1447 0.3699 1.2359 0.8644 2312 0.591 0.9012
PRATING 3329 1214 0.3647 1.2185 0.8639 1929 0.5795 0.8849
CLASSCONSENSUS 3556 1294 0.3639 1.2158 0.8615 2032 0.5714 0.8689
COMPOUNDE1 1946 683 0.351 1.1727 0.8599 1090 0.5601 0.8817
COMPOUNDE2 2321 819 0.3529 1.1791 0.858 1328 0.5722 0.893
LATECONSENSUS 2940 998 0.3395 1.1343 0.8575 1659 0.5643 0.8739
PRIME (PSR) 4569 1674 0.3664 1.2242 0.8566 2662 0.5826 0.8859
EARLYCONSENSUS 2353 825 0.3506 1.1714 0.854 1341 0.5699 0.8867
PCLASS 2933 1032 0.3519 1.1757 0.8518 1659 0.5656 0.8734
FASTSLOWFINAL 3440 1208 0.3512 1.1734 0.8511 1961 0.5701 0.8791
JPR 3412 1205 0.3532 1.1801 0.8506 1949 0.5712 0.8858
SUSTAINED 2728 927 0.3398 1.1353 0.85 1542 0.5652 0.8804
COMPOUNDSP 3146 1112 0.3535 1.1811 0.8498 1825 0.5801 0.8877
CPACE 2426 853 0.3516 1.1747 0.8482 1380 0.5688 0.8806
COMPOUNDAP 2854 1013 0.3549 1.1858 0.8481 1633 0.5722 0.8785
COMPOUNDLATE 2387 794 0.3326 1.1112 0.8469 1341 0.5618 0.8712
CLOSINGRATIO 1579 514 0.3255 1.0875 0.8458 853 0.5402 0.8691
JPRMLPROB 3979 1393 0.3501 1.1697 0.8441 2257 0.5672 0.8825
PCTE 856 249 0.2909 0.9719 0.8438 428 0.5 0.8504
QSPEEDPOINTS 2613 868 0.3322 1.1099 0.8438 1421 0.5438 0.8674
PACELINE 3606 1279 0.3547 1.1851 0.8434 2090 0.5796 0.8874
JPRTOTEPROB 4857 1831 0.377 1.2596 0.8399 2897 0.5965 0.8897
RACESTRENGTH 3235 1136 0.3512 1.1734 0.839 1871 0.5784 0.8866
ALCHEMY 3243 1155 0.3562 1.1901 0.8389 1873 0.5776 0.8857
UPR 3456 1209 0.3498 1.1687 0.8389 1971 0.5703 0.8817
LASTRACEBRISFIG 3601 1258 0.3493 1.167 0.8389 2059 0.5718 0.8792
POWERCONSENSUS 3823 1357 0.355 1.1861 0.8381 2215 0.5794 0.8886
UPRTOTEPROB 4854 1826 0.3762 1.2569 0.8376 2880 0.5933 0.8851
CFA 2581 895 0.3468 1.1587 0.8374 1463 0.5668 0.8747
CLASSCOMPOS 2358 821 0.3482 1.1634 0.8372 1316 0.5581 0.859
PACEFIG 2780 971 0.3493 1.167 0.8371 1594 0.5734 0.883
UPRMLPROB 4000 1396 0.349 1.166 0.8351 2267 0.5668 0.8772
FIGCONSENSUS 3695 1311 0.3548 1.1854 0.8344 2114 0.5721 0.8721
WEIGHTEDFIG 2082 710 0.341 1.1393 0.8342 1163 0.5586 0.868
BRIS3 3576 1262 0.3529 1.1791 0.8332 2054 0.5744 0.8752
TPACE 2748 952 0.3464 1.1574 0.8324 1528 0.556 0.851
BETTORSTOTEPROB 4763 1812 0.3804 1.271 0.8324 2839 0.5961 0.8796
PACEFIT 2620 915 0.3492 1.1667 0.8319 1504 0.574 0.8848
MORNINGLINE 5411 1859 0.3436 1.148 0.8317 3076 0.5685 0.8896
LOGICALFIG 2675 929 0.3473 1.1604 0.8296 1521 0.5686 0.8829
POST TIME FAVS 4915 1862 0.3788 1.2656 0.8289 2930 0.5961 0.8786
QSPEEDPOINTS_ALT 2757 901 0.3268 1.0919 0.8289 1494 0.5419 0.865
PAL 2984 971 0.3254 1.0872 0.8266 1646 0.5516 0.8647
LATESLANT 2906 994 0.3421 1.143 0.8264 1632 0.5616 0.8598
AVGBRISFIG 3402 1185 0.3483 1.1637 0.8239 1944 0.5714 0.8706
COMPOUNDTT 2119 705 0.3327 1.1116 0.8231 1167 0.5507 0.8531
WILLTOWIN 1260 379 0.3008 1.005 0.8225 669 0.531 0.8578
USERFACTOR2 9756 2920 0.2993 1 0.8224 5043 0.5169 0.8518
USERFACTOR5 9756 2920 0.2993 1 0.8224 5043 0.5169 0.8518
USERFACTOR3 9756 2920 0.2993 1 0.8224 5043 0.5169 0.8518
USERFACTOR4 9756 2920 0.2993 1 0.8224 5043 0.5169 0.8518
USERFACTOR1 9756 2920 0.2993 1 0.8224 5043 0.5169 0.8518
AVGE1 1941 644 0.3318 1.1086 0.8223 1075 0.5538 0.8733
LATEPACEINLAST 2443 783 0.3205 1.0708 0.8212 1356 0.5551 0.8724
LATEPACE3 2561 831 0.3245 1.0842 0.8203 1432 0.5592 0.8743
STAMINA 2025 629 0.3106 1.0377 0.8197 1084 0.5353 0.8491
CONSISTENCY 2708 922 0.3405 1.1376 0.809 1482 0.5473 0.8363
TURNTIME 1974 626 0.3171 1.0595 0.8089 1073 0.5436 0.8549
CXN 2908 975 0.3353 1.1203 0.8073 1595 0.5485 0.8432
PACEFIG_4F_INLAST 2207 728 0.3299 1.1022 0.8033 1216 0.551 0.8581
FASTSLOWPACE 2309 751 0.3252 1.0865 0.8015 1274 0.5518 0.8638
PACEFIG_2F_INLAST 1968 629 0.3196 1.0678 0.791 1065 0.5412 0.8559
COMPOUNDPERCENTE 730 192 0.263 0.8787 0.7419 339 0.4644 0.786
****************************************************************************************
75 Factors from file: C:\2012\pL_profile.txt
****************************************************************************************
By: 21 TheOdds
>=Min < Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.00 0.50 -128.00 590.00 0.7831 179 295 .6068
0.50 1.00 -287.40 2290.00 0.8745 579 1145 .5057
1.00 1.50 -586.20 3148.00 0.8138 581 1574 .3691
1.50 2.00 -637.80 3270.00 0.8050 489 1635 .2991
2.00 2.50 -493.60 3006.00 0.8358 395 1503 .2628
2.50 3.00 -361.20 2452.00 0.8527 285 1226 .2325
3.00 3.50 -393.10 2002.00 0.8036 193 1001 .1928
3.50 4.00 -341.90 1378.00 0.7519 110 689 .1597
4.00 4.50 -238.40 1174.00 0.7969 90 587 .1533
4.50 5.00 1.40 202.00 1.0069 19 101 .1881
5.00 5.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
5.50 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
6.00 6.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
6.50 7.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
7.00 7.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
7.50 8.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
8.00 8.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
8.50 9.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
9.00 9999.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
Ending BankRoll: $39.20
Starting BankRoll: $500.00
High BankRoll: $488.00
Low BankRoll: $39.20
Longest Losing Streak: 21.00
Bet Percentage: 0.0250
Max Bet: 500.00
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Charlie James
8/15/2012
3:02:55 PM | Not seeing anything U should be 'bothered' by.
Rerun the same thing thru data window -- but this time instead of breaking out by key factors report -- break it out by rank for any one factor on the key factors report. -- try rank for AFR.
Compare data in rank=1 row for AFR readout to AFR row on key factors report. [Dey B one and da same mon, no?]
Methinks at that point it clix what key factors is all about.
Key factors report gets U rank=1 only for each key factor.
How to use: When rank=1 for something catches the eye -- drill down into the data from there.
But break a UDM out by rank for any one factor -- when U total up all plays on all rows for each rank -- then total number of plays ties out to the original [in this case 9756].
Btw, negative udms can be a good way 2 go. [Do a search for tossout].
~Edited by: Charlie James on: 8/15/2012 at: 3:02:55 PM~
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jeff
8/15/2012
7:28:46 PM | About the max odds constraint in the UDM definition...
Using odds and results based factors is fine when doing Data Window R&D.
When you are running queries in the Data Window: Odds and results based factors have been pulled from your chart files and are recorded in your database. As a result, the odds and results based factors are known in the Data Window.
However, on race day when you click the Calc Races button: Odds and results based factors aren't known by the program.
Specifically, odds and results based factors aren't known in the part of the program called The Profile Marker where UDM definitions are evaluated and decisions are made as to whether or not horses qualify according to the rules stored in your UDM definitions.
UDMs where you have made odds and/or results based factors part of the UDM definition will "fire" when run through the Data Window - but will fail to "fire" when you click the Calc Races button on race day.
Mentioning this because A.) You're new. B.) There's a max odds constraint in the UDM definition you posted...
Last thing I want is an email a couple weeks from now along the lines of "My UDMs picked all these great horses in the Data Window - but for some reason none of them show up on my daily reports. What gives?"
Capiche?
-jp
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Caveat
8/15/2012
9:20:37 PM | Capiche Jeff...
So at least I got the filter right getting the 2 m/l favs...:)
Say I want a UDM to show up when one or both of these 2 horses dont show a 3 or better rank for afr, and/or cpace, and /or jpr
Do I make 3 separate UDM's?
Mike
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jeff
8/16/2012
9:26:13 AM | | --Quote: | "
Say I want a UDM to show up when one or both of these 2 horses dont show a 3 or better rank for afr, and/or cpace, and /or jpr
Do I make 3 separate UDM's?
"
--End Quote. |
Playlist file mode - AND
If you want it to be when one or both of these 2 horses don't show a 3 or better rank for afr AND cpace AND jpr - then you can do it using a single UDM.
Playlist file mode - OR
As soon as you decide to make it OR - then at that point you cross over into multiple UDM territory.
If you want it to be when one or both of these 2 horses don't show a 3 or better rank for afr OR cpace OR jpr - then you need to use a clone of the originial UDM - one clone for each OR conditional.
SQL Mode - OR
When you wrap multiple parts of a sql expression inside of parenthesis characters - the text inside of the parenthesis characters gets evaluated as if it were a single expression.
This makes it easy to use OR condidtionals inside of a SQL UDM.
If you are working with a sql UDM and want it to be when one or both of these 2 horses don't show a 3 or better rank for afr OR cpace OR jpr - you could do it like this:
SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY WHERE RANKMLINE <= 2
AND STARTSLIFETIME >= 6
AND (RANKF01 > 3 OR RANKF19 > 3 OR RANKJPR > 3)
Placement of the parenthesis characters in the above sql expression causes everything inside to be evaluated as a single conditional - and the UDM "fires" whenever a horse ranked 1 or 2 in the morning line finds itself in a field of at least 6 and meets any one of the following conditions:
a. Is outside the top 3 for AFR
b. Is outside the top 3 for CPace
c. Is outside the top 3 for JPR
Also note that in the above sql expression, the program defaults are assumed to be in place where AFR is assigned to slot # F01 and CPace is assigned to slot # F19.
Almost forgot... Ya it looks like you got the filter codes for ml right.
-jp
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crestwood1972
8/21/2012
12:51:00 AM | With respect to designing a killer UDM, and keeping in mind the suggestion to stick to the big picture, I was wondering if anyone has explored separating tracks out by circumference (one mile ovals, bullrings, Belmont, etc) and then creating UDMs around specific distances and surfaces for each of those (utilizing all data from all tracks which fit that track circumference).
Might be a way of getting the best of both worlds, distance-specific but still plenty of data to support the conclusions.
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jeff
8/21/2012
6:23:03 PM | I tried grouping (apparent) like course layouts together years ago and eventually gave up.
The trouble for me was bullrings produced widely differing results from an early vs. late standpoint - as well as from an inside vs. outside standpoint.
I also noticed the same thing for courses that ran one turn miles... inside/early at CDX and outside/late at APX... back when I was doing the initial research (neither behaves that way now.)
I struggled with it for a while. The (fuzzy) picture eventually became clear enough that I can now make some sense of it.
Tell you what, let's continue this discussion in the private area of the board. (I'll start a new thread titled Course Layouts.)
-jp
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