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| ronestes 6/8/2012 5:54:54 PM | I just got started with Jcapper Silver and have done alot viewing of the help docs and videos. I do have a few questions, When the reports have the betting suggestions, I understand the odds line and W and WP, what does like, eb .95 stand for and is there other codes? Also when I upgrade to Platinum how many Out of The box UDM's come with it Thanks Ron
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| jeff 6/9/2012 12:50:00 PM | The betting instructions text that you see in the reports is user defined. The cutoffs used really come from the data and not the user. Here's a link to a thread in the private section of the board from last summer: http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard/TopicReader.asp?topic=1080&forum=Private Hint: You need to be logged in to the board in order to read the thread. In that thread, on 08-26-2011, I posted a simple UDM designed to get the JCapper Platinum user a decent starting point... the stated target was flat win bet roi of about 0.95 (a return of 95 cents for each $1.00 bet.) Here's a screenshot of that same UDM run through the Data Window a few minutes ago: http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard/avatars/datawindow06092012.jpg Couple of notes about the data in the above screenshot: 1. The numbers reflect starters that raced 08-27-2012 and later (after the UDM was created.) That's important because it gives one a look at how the UDM performed going forward - as opposed to back-fitting numbers from the data (always looks promising but never performs well going forward.) 2. The data is broken out by a Platinum Factor called Expected Value Bettors Tote Prob or simply EB. There's nothing magical about this factor. It's just one of many value ratios available in the Platinum program. I'm showing it here because you asked: "What does like, eb .95 stand for and is there other codes?" In the screenshot, I drew a line, ever so crudely, using a yellow mouse highlighter where Expected Value Bettors Tote Prob in the breakout data was 0.95 or higher. 3. The flat win bet roi for the same UDM in the development sample (races before 08-27-2011) was 0.9602. The roi for starters selected by the UDM going forward was 0.9462. So there was some fall off. (This, in my opinion, is normal as the game is constantly evolving.) However, EB (or E~BettorsToteProb) isn't the only value ratio in the Platinum program. The following screenshot shows the UDM run through the Data Window (starters that ran 08-27-2012 and later) with the data broken out by PScore: http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard/avatars/datawindow06092012b.jpg You asked: "Also when I upgrade to Platinum how many Out of The box UDM's come with it?" You get the a handful of starting point UDMs that are similar in nature to those that came with the Silver program. Selling out of the box UDMs isn't what I do. The Platinum program gives you the ability to take a concept of your own design and develop it from start to finish. Or if you have no ideas of your own - or if ideas are scarce - from time to time I post ideas in the private area of the board so that you can take a UDM like the one in the above screenshots - run it through the Data Window using data from tracks where you play - and add your own factor constraints to it - tune it into something useful- and make it yours. Take a look at the last screenshot again. Note the performance of starters selected by the UDM where PScore is 100 or higher. There's nothing magical about that cutoff (other than it hints that the UDM and the idea behind it can be improved by someone who is willing to do the work.) The idea behind the Platinum program is that you are given the tools so that you can do your own research and develop your own models. I hope I managed to explain most of that in a way that makes sense. -jp . ~Edited by: jeff on: 6/9/2012 at: 12:50:00 PM~
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