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| By | Morning Line in UPR's | |||
| dvlander 6/2/2008 7:23:21 PM | I may have asked a variation of this question before but it appears that Morning Line influences the calculation of UPR even if we do not choose Morning Line as one of the factors. What happens if we do include Morning Line as a factor as your JPR calculation does. Does it count Morning Line twice? I do not dispute the fact that including Morning Line results in a more predictive overall rating. However, since you already have it in the factor list as an option, it doesn't make sense to me why it has to be automatic. Can we have a checkbox in System Settings so users can decide whether or not they want Morning Line included in their UPR on a system level? As you attest, the primary strength in JCapper is identifying hidden positives, I'd really like to ignore Morning Line because I think it is one of those overbet factors. Thanks Jeff.
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| jeff 6/2/2008 8:38:27 PM |
If you are talking about UPR or UserFactor values - Morning Line has no influence whatsoever unless you grab it as one of the named factors in your factor mix - or unless you grab and name one of several factors in the program having the ML as part of its makeup - such as Prime Power, QRating, or JPR. But if you are talking about UPRMLProb, which is the result of a probability algorithm that combines the ML with UPR - then yes - Morning Line has a definite influence on the algorithm's probability assessment of each horse. UPR and UPRMLProb are two entirely different things. If you are looking for the ability to name and weight JCapper factors to create your own User Defined Odds Line - in much the same way as you currently grab and weight factors to create UPR and UserFactors - and purposely NOT have that line reflect the ML in any way shape or form - then you might like the stuff that I am currently working on. -jp . ~Edited by: jeff on: 6/2/2008 at: 8:38:27 PM~
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| dvlander 6/2/2008 9:59:14 PM | Thanks Jeff. I was indeed confusing the two factors. I knew UPR was the driving force, but of course it would have to be influenced by ML if it's called UPRMLPROB. However, you understood my intent. It would be very useful to have an odds predictor based on factors we choose that is independent of ML. I'll look forward to another wonderful bag of tricks in a future update. As always, I appreciate how you respond so promptly. Dale
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