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| bill2010 1/9/2012 7:58:00 PM | JEFF CAN U HELP ME ON THIS ---THANKS...BILL
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| jeff 1/10/2012 2:09:36 PM | Sure. First, here's a link to a text file that contains two track weight reports: http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard/reports/TrackWeightReport_01092012.txt The time period covered for both reports is 1/1/2012 through yesterday 1/9/2012. Both reports were compiled using HDW data. The first report in the text file contains data for dirt races run at GPX only. From the GPX report, we have the following relevant numbers: (Actual Winners) / (Expected Winners) = 1.2544 for CPace123 horses. (Actual Winners) / (Expected Winners) = 1.2079 for CompoundLate123 horses. If we take the above two numbers and divide them, we get a number that can be used to compare the effectiveness of CPace vs. CompoundLate: 1.2544 / 1.2079 = 1.0385 (Keep this number in mind.) The second report in the text file contains data for all dirt races at all tracks during the same time period. From this report we have the following numbers: Actual Winners) / (Expected Winners) = 1.0973 for CPace123 horses. (Actual Winners) / (Expected Winners) = 1.1345 for CompoundLate123 horses. If we take the above two numbers and divide them, we get a number that can be used to compare the effectiveness of CPace vs. CompoundLate: 1.0973 / 1.1345 = 0.9672 Keep this number in mind as it is very different from the same number calculated off of the GPX sample. In the GPX sample, the number is higher and CPace can be said to be more effective than "normal." From that, the algorithm behind the report labels GPX as "Speed Favoring." Q. What is meant by "normal?" A. If you run a track weight report the bolded ratios arrived at using the calculations that I have done above have a tendency to be very close to each other from one large sample to another. In other words the ratio has a historical norm. Q. What is meant by expected winners? A. Expected winners is simply the number of winners expected in the sample results based on the tote probability (in this case JPRToteProb) for each starter returned by the query. Using expected winners based on tote prob is a more accurate way to look at results than looking at results for say CPace123 horses alone. For example, in a small sample, what if all of the CPace123 horses happened to be favorites or near favorites? If that were the case, the report would simply be a reflection of win rate based on the odds of the CPace horses. It wouldn't be giving the user an accurate gauge of how a given surface-distance category was playing. (Hope I managed to explain that in a way that makes sense.) The internal workings of the track weight report takes the ratio arrived at using results returned by your query (i.e. track-surface-distance samples for a specific time period) and compares that against historical norms. Based on the comparison for the ratio against historical norms, results from a user's track-surface-distance queries for a specific time period can be accurately graded as speed favoring, speed tiring, etc. -jp .
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| bill2010 1/10/2012 5:29:29 PM | jeff thanks----bill
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| busseb 1/15/2012 3:24:39 PM | Jeff = It's been a while since I explored Track Weight Report and getting old means you forgot how to set it up and how to interpret the results. Lookd back through the forum and couldn't find any old threads. Can you post a few links so I can explore it again? ElPaso
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| jeff 1/15/2012 4:50:14 PM | No links or help docs required... With the Data Window in playlist file mode, select Track Weight Report from the factors drop down and hit the ALL or UDM buttons. Your query results will be broken out in the form of a Track Weight Report as described above. Notes: • Track Weight report is currently playlist file mode only. That said, I am working to get it enabled for sql mode. • Track Weight Report provides a different look than a Track Profile Export. FWIW I personally prefer the Track Weight Report over the Track Profile Export. Not only is it easier to run but for my money it provides a more accurate look as to how any given surface-distance has been playing. -jp .
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