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bill2010
7/9/2011
2:47:28 PM

RailPosition - This is a number that represents the horse's drawn position in the starting gate relative to the rail. Note- a horse's saddle cloth number, often referred to as post position, is not always the same as a horse's rail position. Races with entries, and especially races where one half of an entry has scratched, will often have many horses with saddle cloth numbers different from rail position. Hint~ RailPosition can be used to identify and exploit inside and outside position biases that sometimes exist at certain tracks and distances. (Accessible via the Profile Table Interface and Preset Filters)
can some-one tell me how to apply this to track baises i try to look it up but can't understand it thanks...bill

~Edited by: bill2010 on: 7/9/2011 at: 2:47:28 PM~

jeff
6/26/2011
12:00:13 AM

I look at rail position in the Data Window to get an idea as to which is better: the inside or the outside. Sometimes there's a path bias. If there is I want to know about it.

Example, using HDW data spanning the month of June, 2011 through yesterday 6/24/2011 - here is what I have at BEL in dirt sprints 6f and shorter broken out by rail position:


query start:         6/25/2011 8:42:02 PM
query end:           6/25/2011 8:42:03 PM
elapsed time:        1 seconds
`
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
`
SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE TRACK='BEL' 
      AND INTSURFACE <= 3 
      AND DIST <= 1320 
      AND [YEAR]=2011 
      AND [MONTH]=6
`
`
Data Summary         Win     Place      Show
Mutuel Totals     246.10    299.70    301.30
Bet              -484.00   -484.00   -484.00
Gain             -237.90   -184.30   -182.70
`
Wins                  34        69        96
Plays                242       242       242
PCT                .1405     .2851     .3967
`
ROI               0.5085    0.6192    0.6225
Avg Mut             7.24      4.34      3.14
`
`
By: Rail Position
`
Rail Pos       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays     Pct     Impact
       1     -10.70     68.00    0.8426      7     34   .2059     1.4654  
       2     -18.20     68.00    0.7324      7     34   .2059     1.4654  
       3     -19.90     68.00    0.7074      4     34   .1176     0.8374  
       4     -53.60     68.00    0.2118      3     34   .0882     0.6280  
       5     -35.30     62.00    0.4306      5     31   .1613     1.1480  
       6     -46.20     52.00    0.1115      1     26   .0385     0.2738  
       7     -10.70     34.00    0.6853      4     17   .2353     1.6747  
       8     -20.00     26.00    0.2308      1     13   .0769     0.5475  
       9      -4.80     14.00    0.6571      1      7   .1429     1.0168  
      10      -8.00      8.00    0.0000      0      4   .0000     0.0000  
      11      -8.00      8.00    0.0000      0      4   .0000     0.0000  
      12       1.50      4.00    1.3750      1      2   .5000     3.5588  
      13      -2.00      2.00    0.0000      0      1   .0000     0.0000  
      14      -2.00      2.00    0.0000      0      1   .0000     0.0000

Not a whole lot of data to go on, but at a glance it does appear the inner gate position horses are getting the best of it vs. the ones stuck breaking from middle and outside stalls.

The way I use something like this after having recently seen it in the Data Window:

a. If one of the UDM horses I'm considering happens to be breaking from an inside post I'd elevate the horse's chances a bit. That translates to lowering the min acceptable odds a tick or two and elevating the bet size a bit in the event I decide to play.

b. If the horse picked by the same UDM were breaking from a middle or outside post I'd downgrade that horse's chances a bit. That translates to raising the min acceptable odds a couple of ticks and lowering the bet size in the event I decide to play.

The way I wouldn't go about trying to use something like this is creating a bunch of track specific UDMs so that I can make a bunch of extra bets on horses I wouldn't otherwise be playing and/or chasing whatever happens to have been working recently at "insert name of track here."

Hope I explained that in a way that makes sense.

-jp

.

jeff
6/26/2011
12:11:40 AM

Same query... different track: LAD


query start:         6/25/2011 9:05:39 PM
query end:           6/25/2011 9:05:40 PM
elapsed time:        1 seconds

Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None

SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE TRACK='LAD' 
      AND INTSURFACE <= 3 
      AND DIST <= 1320 
      AND [YEAR]=2011 
      AND [MONTH]=6


Data Summary         Win     Place      Show
Mutuel Totals     544.20    578.80    613.40
Bet              -750.00   -750.00   -750.00
Gain             -205.80   -171.20   -136.60

Wins                  46        92       141
Plays                375       375       375
PCT                .1227     .2453     .3760

ROI               0.7256    0.7717    0.8179
Avg Mut            11.83      6.29      4.35


By: Rail Position

Rail Pos       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays     Pct     Impact
       1     -77.20     92.00    0.1609      2     46   .0435     0.3544  
       2     -52.80     92.00    0.4261      4     46   .0870     0.7089  
       3     -44.40     92.00    0.5174      6     46   .1304     1.0633  
       4       2.40     92.00    1.0261      8     46   .1739     1.4178  
       5      48.20     92.00    1.5239      9     46   .1957     1.5950  
       6     -15.60     88.00    0.8227      6     44   .1364     1.1117  
       7     -36.60     76.00    0.5184      2     38   .0526     0.4291  
       8      -4.40     66.00    0.9333      5     33   .1515     1.2352  
       9     -16.60     38.00    0.5632      2     19   .1053     0.8581  
      10     -13.40     18.00    0.2556      1      9   .1111     0.9058  
      11      -2.00      2.00    0.0000      0      1   .0000     0.0000  
      12       6.60      2.00    4.3000      1      1  1.0000     8.1522

Here, horses with inside posts appear to be getting the worst of it - while horses with middle and outside posts appear to be getting the best of it.

-jp

.

bill2010
6/26/2011
11:04:01 AM

hi jeff thanks....bill

JackB
6/28/2011
7:10:40 PM

At LaD, their "fast" track looks muddy most of the time. Especially early on the card. Very cuppy.

Also, going into the far turn on the grass, there can be a soft spot. A change of leads at that spot looks like a bad step alot of times. It's about the 2-3 lane.

~Edited by: JackB on: 6/28/2011 at: 7:10:40 PM~

bill2010
7/8/2011
7:31:09 PM

THANKS FOR THE HELP...

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JCapper 101 -- help

JCapper 101
-- help