JCapper Live Play Module - General Overview
The Live Play Module is a really nice feature and addition to JCapper. But it can also be dangerous if you abuse it.
Until you know what you are doing don't let my default highlighting settings fool you into thinking you should start betting non
UDM horses because you somehow think I think it's an overlay. Be really careful until you get your own OR3 and MLOR3 settings dialed in
for your personal UDMs and style of play. Read the Strength of Play and Carrying Your Edge Into The Long Run
Sections found towards the end of this Help Doc carefully. Then re-read both of those sections and let the concepts I'm trying to get
across sink in.
The Live Play Module is a great tool after you know what you're doing and how to use it.
Operating the Live Play Module
To Start the Live Play Module:
1. Run a Calculate Races. Yes, a calc races now takes longer because now there are TWO profile tables to pull UDM constraints from AND info for every horse also gets written to the LivePlay table so the the Live Play Module can have a data source.
2. Start an instance of Internet Explorer. Navigate to supertote. Login and run supertote in Internet Explorer concurrently during live play. This will get
the required session cookie onto your machine.
3. Click the Live Play Module Button
4. Start A New Session if need be (read the detailed instructions in the next section titled Starting a New Session.)
5. Select a Track... The upper window is an Internet Explorer Web Browser. When not in in Manual Mode the web browser navigates to the current race for the selected track. You'll need an active Bris or TSN account and be logged into Supertote or Brisbet running in a separate instance of your web browser. Once you have that the Live Play module will refresh every time the odds are updated. It will scratch horses every time a scratch is reflected by the odds. Every scratch causes the Live Play Module to perform a fast scratch. A fast scratch is not the same as a Calculate Races. A fast scratch doesn't change JPR, UPR, JRating, CPace, AFR, Form, etc or find UDM horses. But it does do a pretty good job of estimating tote probability for the remaining horses. It's what I use. And for the most part it works out very well for me.
The middle boxes will let you manually enter the odds when you are in Manual Mode. So if your're playing where you can't connect to the internet you can still see the JPRToteProb and associated Odds Line and OR3. When in Manual Mode after entering the odds juct click the Manual Calc button. To get into manual mode first click the clear button and then check the ML Mode and Manual Mode boxes. Then select a track and race, enter your odds, and hit the Manual Calc button.
Starting a New Session
Bris Requires the following in order to browse live odds at their site:
The upper window of this module is an Internet Explorer Web Browser. Right now it should be
pointed to a live odds setup page on the Bris site. If not, select a track from the Loaded
Race Cards drop down.
- The user must be logged in to their site.
- A session cookie must be allowed onto the user's machine.
1. View the Bris page -
Use the |+| Button to expand the upper window and the |-| button to collapse it. Or use the
scrollbar on the right hand edge of the upper window to scroll down to view the Bris page.
2. Select a Track and Log In -
On the Bris page select a track from the top track drop down. Then click the Start Supertote
button, and log in using your Bris account number and password.
Logging in will cause the Bris page to place a session cookie on your machine.
Your Internet Explorer (and 3rd party firewall) settings on this machine must be set to allow
cookies before you attempt to log in.
Fast Calc a Race In Auto Mode -
Once you log into Bris, you will be running in Automatic Mode. To Fast Calc a race simply select
a track from the Loaded Race Cards drop down. You will see a report for the current race at
the track selected. The Live Play Module in Auto Mode is actually an Internet Explorer Web
Browser. Each time the odds page refreshes for the current race a new Fast Calc is performed
and a new report is generated. To switch tracks, simply select a different track from the
Loaded Race Cards drop down.
Fast Calc a Race in Manual Mode
To switch to Manual Mode:
1. Check the Manual Mode box
2. Select Track & Race
When the Module enters Manual Mode it is expecting the user to enter real odds in the boxes across the top before hitting the Manual Calc button. For the initial Manual Mode display the Module pretends that Actual Odds are equal to Morning Line Odds and fast calcs the race accordingly.
You can keep the Module in Morning Line Mode by clicking the ML Mode box. When in both ML Mode and Manual Mode odds do not have to be entered into the boxes by the user. This is useful if you want to look at races beyond the current one - say the latter legs of a pick-three or pick-four.
You can exit ML Mode by unchecking the ML Mode box. After unchecking the ML Mode box the Module will still be in Manual Mode.
The idea behind my design at the point in program execution where the user enters Manual Mode is to get the Module to display the race for the user so that the user can enter real odds into the boxes before hitting the Manual Calc button.
The small clear button - This causes the odds in the boxes to clear (and nothing else.) The design here is to give the user an easy way to not have to type over stale odds sitting in the boxes during manual odds entry. The user can just enter the odds into the first box and use the tab key to tab to the next box. With a little practice you just might surprise yourself how fast you can enter the odds.
The big clear button clears everything.
There is a caveat in play here: in both Manual Mode or Auto Mode only horses with odds are displayed. Why? Because horses without odds are treated the same as horses that have been scratched.
So when the Manual Calc button is clicked without odds in the boxes the horses in the race aren't displayed.
To get out of Manual Mode at any time and enter Auto Mode click the big Clear Button. As soon as you select a track the Module should get the tote and fast calc the current race.
The Numbers... What do they mean?
Going across the top of the report, from left to right, here are the numbers along with a brief explanation of what you are looking at:
Odds When operated in Automatic Mode the current odds are shown here. When operated in Manual Mode the odds keyed into the
boxes corresponding to saddle cloth number by the user above the report are listed here. When operated in MLMode the morning line
odds are listed here.
- Expected Value (Bettor's Tote Prob)
= (Bettor's Tote Prob) X (Odds + 1)
- Bettor's Tote Probability - Probability based on UPR numeric value, gap, and the odds. Depending on the strength of your UPR,
this can be an extremely accurate assesment of each horse's chances of winning the race once the odds are known.
- Expected Value (ZScore Prob)
= (ZScore Prob) X (Odds + 1)
- ZScore Probability - Probability expressed by the normalized ZScores (probability distribution) of UPR numeric values found in the current race.
- Expected Value (JToteProb)
= (JToteProb Prob) X (Odds + 1)
OR3 - Odds Ratio 3
= Current Odds / Odds Line Dervied from Tote Prob
OL - Odds Line
= (1 / Tote Prob) - 1
- JPR or UPR Tote Probability - A very accurate probability based on either JPR or UPR (depending on which odds line type is
selected by the user on the System Definitions Screen) and the odds. This is a very accurate assesment of
each horse's chances of winning the race once the odds are known.
Pwr Rtg - Power Rating - The Power Rating sent to the Live Play Module during a Calc Races depends on your user settings
on the System Defintions screen. When JPR ML OL is the odds line type selected, JPR (JCapper Power Rating) appears on the
Live Play Module's report. When User Def OL is the odds line type selected, UPR (User Defined Power Rating) appears on the
Live Play Module's report.
ML - Morning Line Odds as set by the track's Morning Line Oddsmaker.
MLOR3 - Morning Line Odds Ratio 3 = Morning Line Odds / Odds Line Dervied from ML Prob
MLOL - Morning Line Odds Line = (1 / ML Prob) - 1
ML Prob - Probability as determined by running both the Power Rating and the Morning Line Odds into the JCapper JPR ML Prob
algorithm. Historically, this is an accurate assesment of each horse's chances of winning the race before the odds are known. Note:
The power rating sent to the algorithm is based on the odds line type settings made by the user on the System Defintions Screen.
Overlay HighLighting - Users have the ability to set both colors and cutoffs for Overlay HighLighting on the System
Defintions screen. Two levels of highlighting can be set for the numbers on the Live Play Module. Typically, I advise users
to set a light highlight color to warn whenever odds ratios are approaching desired levels. Bright highlight colors are used
to indicate that odds ratios are solidly beyond target cutoffs. Cutoffs can be set on the System Defintions screen for MLOR3 and OR3.
There is simply no substitute for Data Window research. It is the best (and only true) way for you to really dial in MLOR3 and
OR3 cutoffs to drive Overlay HighLighting for horses selected by your own UDMs.
Strength Of Play - The UDMs, UPR, and UserFactors that you create will always be (unless you feel compelled to tell somebody)
Each of your individual UDMs will have a slightly different factor mix. Some UDMs are stronger than others. Horses selected
by your very best UDMs should win more often and bring a higher roi than horses selected by lesser UDMs. Yet it is possible to
win playing the selections of both. Run any viable UDM through the Data Window across a large data sample broken out by the
odds ratios found in JCapper and you will very likely see cutoff points in the data that suggest profitable play. For example,
a good UDM run through the Data Window across a large sample broken out by OR3 might show a cutoff for OR3 of 1.25...
where anything above 1.25 is profitable and anything below is a loser. Another weaker UDM run through the Data Window across
the same sample might show an OR3 cutoff of 1.80. A really strong UDM run through the Data Window across the same sample might
show an OR3 cutoff of .75.
The concept I'm trying to get across here is called Strength Of Play.
Every UDM has a different Strength of Play - and therefore, a different set of odds ratio cutoffs for profitable play.
Carrying Your Edge Into The Long Run -
After you have created a handful of viable UDMs and have decided to play your UDM selections for real money, I strongly recommend
taking the next step: Spend some additional time running your UDMs through the Data Window across several samples and discover
just where the odds ratio cutoffs for each UDM are for profitable play. Then key a note to yourself in the BettingInstructions
field of each UDM so that you'll see it when horses selected by your UDMs appear in the Live Play Module... something like OR3 1.20 will help
you make intelligent play or pass decisions for that UDM's selections during live play.
Discipline is the single most important thing in horse racing when it comes to consistent long term profitable play. If you haven't
done so, read an article that I wrote back in June, 2006 titled The Sphere.
Some people have told me it's a little out there; but it does get the point across. The one thing that separates the tiny percentage
of people who consistently win money at horse race betting from everyone else is discipline.
The Live Play Module will show you whenever a horse selected by one of your viable UDMs has a key odds ratio that is solidly entrenched in
positive territory. If you want to carry your edge into the long run it is up to you to pull the trigger - and avoid pulling the
trigger all those other times that the odds ratio is below your target cutoff.
Best Of Luck,