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By Winning at the Races handicapping system
SILVER01HDW
7/31/2016
3:24:25 PM
I have read this book quite a few times and have always wondered what the actual percentage and ROI would be using this system but I don't know enough about how to re-create this in JCapper. Of course I am a Silver subscriber right now and don't have a lot of experience yet with running UDM's to test it. Also, I would assume there is some part of this formula requiring a User defined number.

And, as far as ranking -
Could you explain the ranking system used in JCapper? The one used in the book is 1st, 2nd, 3rd, Top Half, Bottom Half.

And, what is difference?
I would guess it's a way to determine if the difference between 2 or more consecutive ranks is significant or not.... but not sure how to use it if that's case.




~Edited by: SILVER01HDW  on:  7/31/2016  at:  3:24:25 PM~

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jeff
8/6/2016
11:27:33 AM

--quote:
"I have read this book quite a few times and have always wondered what the actual percentage and ROI would be using this system but I don't know enough about how to re-create this in JCapper. Of course I am a Silver subscriber right now and don't have a lot of experience yet with running UDM's to test it. Also, I would assume there is some part of this formula requiring a User defined number."
--end quote



--my reply:

It's tough for me to comment on the above because I haven't read the book - and am unfamiliar with the formula that you are referring to.



--quote:
"And, as far as ranking -
Could you explain the ranking system used in JCapper? The one used in the book is 1st, 2nd, 3rd, Top Half, Bottom Half.

And, what is difference?
I would guess it's a way to determine if the difference between 2 or more consecutive ranks is significant or not.... but not sure how to use it if that's case."
--end quote



--my reply:

Rank in JCapper:
The following chart can be used to illustrate rank and gap in JCapper:

horse   fig  rank  gap
----- --- ---- ---
#1 90 1 5
#2 85 2 -5
#3 84 3 -6
#4 83 4 -7
#5 82 5 -8
#6 81 6 -9
#7 81 6 -9
#8 68 7 -22


The above chart represents a mythical field of 8 horses.

It contains 8 rows (1 row per horse.)

The column labeled horse contains the saddle cloth number or betting interest numbers for each horse in the field.

The column labeled fig contains the numeric value of a JCapper factor. For purposes of illustration let's assume the numeric values in this column are the last line speed figs for each horse.

The column labeled rank contains each horse's rank for the factor being evaluated - in this case the factor is last line speed fig.

The #1 horse has the best fig in the field - and is therefore ranked 1st.

The #2 horse has the second best fig in the field - and is therefore ranked 2nd.

The #3 horse has the third best fig in the field - and is therefore ranked 3rd.

The #4 horse has the fourth best fig in the field - and is therefore ranked 4th.

The #5 horse has the fifth best fig in the field - and is therefore ranked 5th.

In JCapper every horse in the field is ranked.

In this case there are 8 horses in the field - and in most 8 horse fields - the ranks of the horses will be 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8.

But this is an atypical 8 horse field.

In JCapper there is such a thing as a tie for rank.

In the above example the #6 horse and the #7 horse are tied in last line speed fig. Both have an 81.

This results in the #6 horse and the #7 horse being tied in rank - at 6th.

The number 8 horse has the lowest last line speed fig in the field - but because of the tie - is ranked 7th.


Gap or Diff in JCapper:
In JCapper Gap and Diff are interchangeable terms. Both are used to describe the same concept.

Here are the rules for calculating Gap or Diff:

For all horses that are rank 1: Gap or Diff in JCapper is a positive number representing the difference between the top fig in the field and the second best fig in the field.

For all horses that are rank 2 or greater: Gap or Diff in JCapper is a negative number representing the difference between the top fig in the field and the fig of the current horse being evaluated.

The column labeled gap contains each horse's Gap or Diff for the factor being evaluated - in this case the factor is last line speed fig.

In the above chart, the #1 horse has the top fig at 90 in the field - and the #2 horse has the second best fig at 85 in the field.

The Gap or Diff between the top fig in the field and the second best fig in the field is 5.

The #1 horse, ranked 1st, is awarded a Gap or Diff of 5.

The #2 horse, ranked 2nd, is awarded a Gap or Diff of -5.

The #3 horse, ranked 3rd, is awarded a Gap or Diff of -6.

The #4 horse, ranked 4th, is awarded a Gap or Diff of -7.

The #5 horse, ranked 5th, is awarded a Gap or Diff of -8.

In JCapper there is such a thing as a tie for Gap or Diff.

The #6 horse and the #7 horse are tied at 6th - and are tied in Gap or Diff as well at -9

The #8 horse, ranked 7th, is awarded a Gap or Diff of -22.

I hope I managed to explain most of that in a way that makes sense.



-jp

.








~Edited by: jeff  on:  8/6/2016  at:  11:27:33 AM~

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