Reading the Reports

Reading the Reports

In this document, I'll present some screenshots of the Text Report and HTML Report and follow that up with some hints on what to look for and why. I'll then follow that up with some very blatant examples of what to look for.

Note: Most of the screenshots used in this document are based on the original JRating enabled version of JCapper first made available in the fall of 2004. Later versions have screens that differ slightly in appearance. No matter what version of JCapper you have, the same principles about what to look for still apply. Horses that fit the UDM Definitions of active UDMs will be marked on the HTML Report. When the Morning Line Odds divided by Probability Odds Line is greater than defined Odds Ratio Cutoffs Overlay Highlighting will kick in. Each and every race day there will be overlays just waiting to be found.

The Text Report

Each time it is run, one of the things the Profile Marker does is create a text file named AtAPrice.txt in the default data folder. This file contains all of the UDM plays identified for the day. It is sorted by track and then by race.

The above screenshot shows a portion of the text report for October 27, 2004.

Here's how to read it:

Reading across the top line we have:

1. The Bris file code for the track. In this case: AQU

2. The race number. In this case: Race 4.

3. The distance in furlongs. In this case: 6F.

4. The Bris class descriptor. In this case: S to indicate a Maiden Special Weight race.

5. The Race Volatility score. In this case 97.32

Then, reading across the bottom line we have:

1. The post position. In this case horse #7.

2. The horse's name. In this case TANI MARU.

3. The rider's name as listed in the Bris database - In this case SANTOS J A or Jose Santos.

4. The rider rating in parenthesis. This part is subjective and has been placed there by the program's author. A detailed explanation of this rating appears in the notes below.

5. The name of the UDM taken from the PROFILE field in the profile Table - in this case: DS_JCapper_OOB.

6. The morning line odds - In this case 9-2.

7. The betting instructions in brackets. This can be: 1.The default is the odds line generated by the program. This can be activated or de-activated by checking or un-checking the OL Test checkbox with the UDM Wizard when creating or modifying the UDM Definition itself. B. Any text placed in the BETTINGINSTRUCTIONS field of the profile table will also appear to the left of the fair odds line. This is a perfect place to place a reminder as to how to bet this particular type of play. Examples of this might be "WP" for win and place or "W" for win only, etc.

8. A separate line is shown for each UDM that each horse qualifies for. If multiple horses qualify as UDM plays, they will be listed separately.

Important Note about Odds Line display on the Reports and in the Data Window

Odds Line Type Displayed on the Reports - In the original JCapper there was only one odds line: AProbOL. In the summer of 2005 I added the PScoreOL and gave users a choice of which Odds Line to display on the reports. In JCapper2007 users have two additional choices: JPRMLOL and UPRMLOL (or User Defined Odds Line.) There is only so much room on the HTML Report. The program has hundreds of factors and I can’t possibly fit all of them on the HTML Report. For that reason, you the user, have a responsibility. You have to go into the System Settings/System Definitions Screen and choose the single odds line type that best fits your own UDMs. The Odds Line that you select and save on the System Definitions Screen is the odds line that you’ll see displayed on your reports.

Default Odds Line Type for UDMs in the Data Window –When you check the OL Test checkbox for a UDM in the UDM Wizard you are adding a requirement to the UDM Definition that the UDM only select horses that go off at odds greater than or equal to the odds expressed by the odds line. Sounds easy so far, right? But hold on a second. Which odds line? You have several choices, remember? There is a rule covering this and here it is: The same Odds Line that you select and save on the System Definitions Screen that drives the odds line you see displayed on your reports is the same odds line used as a default by the Data Window when you run your UDMs through the Data Window.

So if you have JPRMLOL saved in System Definitions you will see the JPRMLOL (also called JPRMLProbOL) on your reports. If you have a UDM where you have checked the OL Test box and you run that UDM through the Data Window using the UDM button – the Data Window will evaluate each horse in the database and make a comparison between post time odds and the odds expressed by the JPRMLOL when it determines whether or not that horse should be returned as part of your query results.

Use the System Definitions Screen to change to a different Odds Line type and your new Odds Line type will drive what you see on the reports and in the Data Window.

The HTML Report (JCapper 2005)

In this section we’ll examine an HTML Report run for SA R5 2-05-2005 using JCapper 2005.

Figure 01 SAX R5 02-05-2005

Each time it is run, the HTML Report generator creates an HTML file named Report_1.html in the default data folder. This file can be viewed in your web browser or the JCapper Report Viewer. The file contains a table for each race found in the Bris data file for all loaded race cards. The report is sorted by track (in the order they were loaded) and then by race number.

The above screenshot shows the HTML Report for race 5 at Santa Anita on 02-05-2005. Starting with the top line, here's how to read it:

1. Links to Loaded Race Cards. Clickable. Clicking on GP will cause navigation to race 1 for Gulfstream Park. Clicking on SA will cause navigation to race 1 for Santa Anita. Clicking on any of the individual race numbers will cause navigation to that race for the current track.

2. Race Header - Shown is Santa Anita, Race 5, at 6 furlongs, on the dirt, on 02-05-2005. The abbreviated race conditions are shown if they are available in the Bris data file.

Then we have a row for each horse. Going across the top from left to right we have:

PP - Post Position.

Name- Name of the horse. If the horse fits a UDM Definition, the horse name is highlighted in red. The “+” character just to the left of horses marked as UDM plays is clickable. Clicking the “+” character will call a JavaScript function that expands and displays a hidden node containing all of the separate UDM names that are pointing to this horse.

Note: Some of the horses have red question marks after their names. A single red question mark indicates an XFORM horse. Double red question marks indicate a CANTRUN horse.

XFORM has to do with trainer intent. Things like no lasix, adding blinkers to correct a problem, and a lack of a workout base – when present these subtle signals often point out that the trainer is not gunning for a win today. In JCapper, horses are considered to be either XFORM or YFORM. A horse can never be both. A horse is considered to be YFORM whenever the past performance record has a complete absence of XFORM traits. It isn’t a perfect scoring system. XFORM horses do win races. But taken as a group, XFORM horses win statistically fewer races than YFORM horses. More importantly, historical win ROI for XFORM horses is lower than the historical win ROI of YFORM horses.

CANTRUN has to do with a horse being in over its head today. In JCapper, horses are considered to be either CANTRUN or CANRUN. A horse can never be both. A horse is considered to be CANRUN whenever the past performance record has a complete absence of CANTRUN traits. Again, it isn’t a perfect scoring system. CANTRUN horses do occasionally win races. But taken as a group, CANTRUN horses win statistically far fewer races than CANRUN horses. More importantly, historical win ROI for CANTRUN horses is far lower than the historical win ROI of CANRUN horses.

The absence of question marks indicates a CLEAN horse. Horses with question marks are considered to be DIRTY horses. Again, in JCapper, this simple concept means that horses are considered to be either CLEAN or DIRTY. A horse can never be both. A horse is considered to be CLEAN whenever the past performance record has a complete absence of DIRTY traits. Again, this isn’t a perfect scoring system. DIRTY horses do win races. But taken as a group, CLEAN horses win statistically more races than DIRTY horses. More importantly, historical win ROI for CLEAN horses higher than the historical win ROI of DIRTY horses.

AProb- Assigned Probability

OL- Assigned Probability Odds Line (shown.) or PScore Odds Line (not shown.) User may select display of odds line type in System Settings/System Definitions screen.

Note: When Assigned Probability Odds Line is shown, a mouse click on it will reveal the PScore Odds Line and vice versa.

CPace- Comprehensive Pace Rating (click to view PScore) followed by CPace rank in parenthesis.

PMI- Pace Model Index (click to view PScore) followed by PMI rank in parenthesis.

TP- Rank for TPace (click to view numeric value)

SP -Rank for Sustained Pace (located just beneath TPace rank/click to view numeric value)

PAL- Rank for Pace Adjusted Late (click to view numeric value)

L3- Rank for Late Pace Best of Last 3 (located just beneath PAL rank/click to view numeric value)

WFig- Weighted Figure followed by rank in parenthesis. Weighted Speed Figures shown in green whenever a horse ran on the turf in its most recent start. Weighted Speed Figures shown in black indicate horses that ran on the dirt in their most recent start.

Running Style and Q Speed Points - read directly from Bris or TSN data file

Dt- Distance Shift – the number of furlongs plus or minus that today’s race is shorter or longer than the horse’s previous race. Negative numbers indicate that a horse is shortening up in distance. Positive numbers indicate that a horse is stretching out. A Dt of zero indicates that today’s race is at the same distance as the horse’s previous race.

OP- Optimization Points followed by rank in parenthesis.

Form- Form Rating followed by rank in parenthesis.

WoBrill- Workout Brilliance followed by rank in parenthesis.

J- Rank for JRating. Click to view number for rating.

P- Rank for Prime Power Rating. Click to view number for rating with PF1 and PF2.

i- Improvement or decline in Bris or TSN speed figure from second start back to most recent start. Positive numbers are shown in black. Negative numbers are shown in red.

t- Difference in Bris or TSN speed figure from the horse’s previous top. Speed figure of the horse’s most recent race is compared to the speed figure from the previous top. Positive numbers are shown in black. Negative numbers are shown in red.

PaceLn- PaceLine – the best Bris or TSN speed figure as selected by the user defined PaceLine selection rules found on the System Settings/System Definitions screen. My own preferences are to select the best speed figure from the 5 most recent starts and from the most recent 120 days while requiring that the race be at a similar distance and have been run on the same surface as today’s race. I do it this way for a reason. Whenever I see a horse with a zero for PaceLine I know at a glance that the horse hasn’t had a race at a similar distance as today’s race on the same surface (dirt or turf) as today’s race within its last five starts or within the last four months. I know at a glance that the horse is trying something new today.

Note: PaceLine settings on the System Settings/System Definitions Screen affect the PaceLine number only. The premier ratings in the program such as JRating, CPace, PMI, OP, Form, and WoBrill, etc. are all hard coded into the program are not affected by user PaceLine selection rules. This is by design. I did not want to offer users the chance to foul things up by making illogical PaceLine selection settings.

Best10- Bris or TSN Speed Figure (Best of Last 10) followed by rank in parenthesis.

ML- Morning Line Odds

Rec- Recent Activity (Days Last Start)

T- Grade for trainer based on win percent. These are letter grades that correspond to trainer win percent. The # character indicates a 25 pct or better win percent at the current meet. The A character indicates a 20 pct or better win percent at the current meet. The B character indicates a 15 pct or better win percent at the current meet. The C character indicates a 10 pct or better win percent at the current meet. The D character indicates a 5 pct or better win percent at the current meet. The E character indicates less than a 5 pct win percent at the current meet. The F character indicates no starts at the current meet.

Trainer Name – This is an optional setting. To display the trainer name on the HTML Report, check the Display Trainer Name check box found in the System Settings/System Definitions Screen.

Jockey- Name of Rider

JkyR- Rider Rating in parenthesis when present.

Rider Rating Explanation

I must admit that this part is something that I added for my own personal use. It's based on Data Window research on the tendencies of individual riders and changes periodically as I find the time to update it. I'm not 100 percent convinced it belongs in the final program version but there's no harm in leaving it in there for now. It often serves as a guide. Not all plays are created equal and the presence of a superior rider on a UDM play often points to a higher likelihood of cashing a bet than a weaker rider does. I'll use a full rating as an example. If one or more characters are missing from a rider rating it means the rider should be considered neutral in that category.

Rating: (A++T)

Trainer character: Possible values are "A" or simply left blank. The presence of an A indicates that one or more trainers with a win percent greater than 20 percent have used this rider as a "go to" rider in the recent past. If no trainer character is present, this means that I haven't noticed this rider being used as a go to rider by a 20 percent trainer,

Sprint Dirt Rating. This is the first + or - character. A plus indicates that this rider has historically outperformed a normal expectation in sprint races in terms of both win rate and roi. A minus indicates that the rider has historically underperformed.

Route Dirt Rating. This is the second + or - character. A plus indicates that this rider has historically outperformed a normal expectation in route races in terms of both win rate and roi. A minus indicates that the rider has historically underperformed.

Turf Rating: This is the letter appearing to the right of the dirt route rating. An upper case "T" indicates that this rider has historically outperfornmed a normal expectaion both in terms of win rate and roi in Turf Route races. A lower case "t" indicates the rider has outperformed in Turf Sprint races. The lack of a character should be taken as a neutral indicator.

Owner Name – This is an optional setting. To display the owner name on the HTML Report, check the Display Owner Name check box found in the System Settings/System Definitions Screen. Note: the owner name is not shown on the screenshot above.

Below the frame displaying the data for the race are two more numbers. From left to right, they are:

1. PaceIndex

2. Race Volatility (shown in bold)

Glossary of Supported Factors

A complete glossary of all factors supported in JCapper can be found on the JCapper website on the Supported Factors page.

Overlay Highlighting

Another feature of the program is MLine Odds Ratio II (MLOR2) highlighting on the HTML Report. This feature can be turned on or turned off in the System Settings Interface/System Definitions Screen according to individual user preferences. When turned on, if MLine Odds Ratio II is 1.30 or higher, the horse is highlighted in light yellow. When MLine Odds Ratio II is 2.0 or higher, the horse is highlighted in very bright yellow. Only horses that are program contenders are highlighted. The following horses in JCapper are considered program contenders:

1. UDM Selections

2. JRating rank=1

3. JRating rank=2

4. CPace rank=1

No other horses will be highlighted.

Note: In newer non-JRating versions of JCapper the following horses are subject to overlay highlighting:

1. UDM Selections

2. JPR rank=1

3. JPR rank=2

4. CPace rank=1

No other horses will be highlighted.

Note about Printing the HTML Report and Overlay Highlighting using Internet Explorer

On most machines the Internet Explorer default settings for printing of background colors are disabled. In JCapper Overlay Highlighting on the HTML Report is achieved using a programming convention called CSS (a Cascading Style Sheet.) JCapper uses CSS to set the background-color attribute of the row to be highlighted. The browser then interprets the background-color attribute and renders the row accordingly so that you see the individual horse highlighted on your screen.

To enable Overlay Highlighting for HTML Reports printed out on paper using Internet Explorer, the following setting(s) (as shown click here) must be enabled in Internet Explorer:

Internet options, advanced tab.......check the box labeled

"print background text and images"

Results Display

JCapper*.DAT files are created by the Results File Importer during a Database Build. This is a special file format containing both past performance and results data. JCapper*.DAT files can be loaded into the program just like Bris or TSN data files. After loading a JCapper*.DAT file, after Calculating Races, odds, placings, and payoffs are displayed on the HTML Report in blue font.

Factor Rankings

The ranking of each horse relative to the field is displayed for all numeric factors. A rank of (1) indicates the horse was the ranked highest for that factor. A rank of (x) indicates the horse ranked 10th or worse for that factor.

Figure 02 BEL R5 05-20-2005

The HTML Report (JCapper 2008)

In this section we’ll examine an HTML Report run for KEE R2 4-20-2008 using JCapper 2008.

Figure 01a KEE R2 04-20-2008

The above screenshot shows the HTML Report for race 2 at Keeneland on 04-20-2008. The race was won by #5 horse, Game N Laughin, who was ranked 1st in JPR, UPR, CPace, CompoundE1, CompoundE2, and CompoundPaceFit. My point for choosing this race is to emphasize the importance the Compound Pace Array factors can play in pointing out horses with pace advantages over their fields. One of my favorite play types is the horse that can get the lead right from the gate, face very little pace pressure from other horses during the running of the race, and have enough left in the tank to get to the wire first at good odds. This horse is a perfect example of that. In this case the top CPace and CompoundPaceFit numbers are indicative of a pace advantage. Combine that with strong JPR and UPR numbers and you have a horse with plenty of hidden positives. This horse won easily and paid $17.60.

Starting with the top line, here's how to read the report:

1. Links to Loaded Race Cards. Clickable. Clicking on KEE will cause navigation to race 1 for KEE. Clicking on another track will cause navigation to race 1 for that track. Clicking on any of the individual race numbers will cause navigation to that race for the current track.

2. Race Header - Shown is KEE, Race 2, at 6 furlongs, on the dirt, on 04-20-2008. The abbreviated race conditions are shown if they are available in the Bris data file.

Then we have 4 rows for each horse. Going across the top from left to right we have:

PP - Post Position.

Note: Some of the horses have red question marks after their names. A single red question mark indicates an XFORM horse. Double red question marks indicate a CANTRUN horse.

JProb- JPRML Probability

OL- Probability Odds Line… JPRMLProb OL shown. Other options include UPRMLProbOL, AProb (for JRating enabled users only) and PScoreOL (again for JRating enabled users only.) User may select display of odds line type on System Settings/System Definitions screen.

Pace Synopsis

CPace- Comprehensive Pace Rating (click to view PScore) followed by CPace rank in parenthesis.

PMI- Pace Model Index (click to view PScore) followed by PMI rank in parenthesis.

E1- CompoundE1 followed by rank in parenthesis.

E2- CompoundE2 followed by rank in parenthesis.

TP- Rank for TPace (click to view numeric value)

SP -Rank for Sustained Pace (located just beneath TPace rank/click to view numeric value)

AP- Rank for CompoundAP (click to view numeric value)

SP- Rank for CompoundSP (click to view numeric value)

PAL- Rank for Pace Adjusted Late (click to view numeric value)

L3- Rank for Late Pace Best of Last 3 (located just beneath PAL rank/click to view numeric value)

CL- Rank for CompoundLate (click to view numeric value)

TT- Rank for CompoundTurnTime (click to view numeric value)

LateSlant – Late Slant Weighted Speed Figure followed by rank in parenthesis. Appears just to the right of Weighted Speed Figure.

Running Style and Q Speed Points - read directly from Bris or TSN data file.

PctE- CompoundPctE followed by rank in parenthesis.

PFit- CompoundPaceFit followed by rank in parenthesis.

OP- Optimization Points followed by rank in parenthesis.

UF1- UserFactor1 followed by rank in parenthesis.

AFR- Advanced Form Rating followed by rank in parenthesis.

CFA- Competitive Figure Analysis followed by rank in parenthesis.

UF2- UserFactor2 followed by rank in parenthesis.

Form- Form Rating followed by rank in parenthesis.

WoBrill- Workout Brilliance followed by rank in parenthesis.

UF3- UserFactor3 followed by rank in parenthesis.

Q- Rank for QRating. Click to view number for rating.

JCl- Rank for JPRClass. Click to view number for rating.

UF4- UserFactor4 followed by rank in parenthesis.

Note: JRating enabled users will see Rank for JRating instead of Rank for QRating in the above report section.

JPR- JPR followed by rank in parenthesis.

UPR- UPR followed by rank in parenthesis.

UF5- UserFactor5 followed by rank in parenthesis.

Note: Users will see identical numbers for JPR and UPR in the above report section until they have taken the time to use the Impact Values Table Wizard to build their own UPR.

Note: Users will see zero for UserFactors until they have taken the time to use the Impact Values Table Wizard to create their own UserFactors.

Displaying UserFactors on the HTML Report

Note: There is a checkbox on the System Settings/System Definitions Screen that enables display of UserFactors 1-5 on the HTML Report. When this box is checked UserFactors 1-5 will appear on the HTML Report. When not checked, UserFactors 1-5 will not appear on the report.

Displaying the Compound Pace Array on the HTML Report

Note: There is a checkbox on the System Settings/System Definitions Screen that enables display of The Compound Pace Array on the HTML Report. When this box is checked The Compound Pace Array will appear on the HTML Report. When not checked, The Compound Pace Array will not appear on the report. The following factors are part of the JCapper Compound Pace Array: CompoundE1, CompoundE2, CompoundTT, CompoundAP, CompoundSP, CompoundPctE, CompoundPaceFit, and LateSlant.

ML- Morning Line Odds

Rec- Recent Activity (Days Last Start)

Trainer Name – This is an optional setting. To display the trainer name on the HTML Report, check the Display Trainer Name check box found in the System Settings/System Definitions Screen.

Jockey- Name of Rider

JkyR- Rider Rating in parenthesis when present.

Rider Rating Explanation

Rating: (A++T)

Below the frame displaying the data for the race are two more numbers. From left to right, they are:

1. PaceIndex

2. Race Volatility (shown in bold)

Glossary of Supported Factors

A complete glossary of all factors supported in JCapper can be found on the JCapper website on the Supported Factors page.

Overlay Highlighting

1. UDM Selections

2. JRating rank=1

3. JRating rank=2

4. CPace rank=1

No other horses will be highlighted.

Note: In newer non-JRating versions of JCapper the following horses are subject to overlay highlighting:

1. UDM Selections

2. JPR rank=1

3. JPR rank=2

4. CPace rank=1

No other horses will be highlighted.

Note about Printing the HTML Report and Overlay Highlighting using Internet Explorer

To enable Overlay Highlighting for HTML Reports printed out on paper using Internet Explorer, the following setting(s) (as shown click here) must be enabled in Internet Explorer:

Internet options, advanced tab.......check the box labeled

"print background text and images"

Results Display

Factor Rankings

-end JCapper2008 example report -

UDM Display

Horses that match the criteria of any UDM Definition are displayed in red font and will have a clickable + character just to the left of the horse's name. When the + character is clicked, a hidden div containing the names of all UDMs that selected this horse will be made visible as shown above. After the hidden div has been made visible, clicking the + character will hide it again.

+ALL Button

The +ALL Button is located at the very top of the HTML Report Document. Clicking the +ALL Button will make the all of the hidden divs containing the UDM Names for every UDM Selection on the HTML Report Document visisble. One caveat though- you'll need to allow the report document enough time to be completely loaded by the report viewer (or your browser) before all of the hidden divs can be made visible. If you wait 10-15 seconds for the document to load before clicking +ALL you should be fine.

-ALL Button

The -ALL Button is located at the very top of the HTML Report Document. Clicking the -ALL Button will hide all of the hidden divs on the HTML Report Document.

Print Button

The HTML Report document can be sent to the printer by clicking the Print Button. The Print Button is located at the very top of the HTML Report document.

Figure 03 PRINT +ALL -ALL

Factor Bolding

The bolding represents a handful of combinations I was playing around with at one time while considering whether or not to bring UDMs for them into the program. The jury is still out on most of the concepts embodied by the bolding and my intent was to simply remove it before the program's initial release date. Individual users have asked me privately from time to time what the bolding stood for. After explaining it, each asked me to leave it in place so it's stayed where it is in its current format.

Here's an explanation of what gets bolded:

CPace
Bolded in Dirt Sprints Only
when CPace Rank =1
and when WoScore Rank = 1 or 2

Weighted Figure
Bolded when WoFit is True

note~ WoFit is true when a horse has had at least one fast
workout in the past 45 days. Otherwise, WoFit is false.

Form Rating
Bolded only when Form Rating itself is 100

JRating
Bolded when Class Rating Rank =1
and only when Class Rating Num > 0

Prime Power
Bolded when horse fits an energy/running style profile where
ClosingRatio is between 30 and 60

Morning Line

Morning Line Favorite is bolded

Beyond the Basics- What to Look For

Playable/Unplayable Races

JCapper's Race Volatility is a very powerful predictor of the degree of difficulty the public will likely have in correctly selecting the race winner. Here are some stats from calendar year 2004: In races where Race Volatility was 50 or less, the post time favorite won in excess of 50 percent of the time and the average win mutuel of the race winner was right around $8.22.. In races where Race Volatility was 180 or higher, the post time favorite won less than 28 percent of the time and the average win mutuel was over $17.00. By avoiding races where Race Volatility is low, the astute player can greatly enhance his or her chance of long term success. How low is too low? It depends on the types of horses you play. Time spent at the Data Window will very likely give you some good guidelines to go by.

UDM Selections

As mentioned earlier, horses that match the criteria of any UDM Definition are displayed in red font. If you've done your homework with the Data Window, your UDM Selections are those horses each day that you should be focusing on.

Multiple UDMs Selecting a Single Horse

As you get more experience with JCapper, you will eventually start to create your own UDMs. Occasionally, multiple UDMs will point out the same horse. Depending on the factor mix of the UDMs, this can be a very powerful indicator of a situation that may warrant an increase in bet size..

Highlighted Horses

As mentioned earlier, another feature of the program is Overlay Highlighting on the HTML Report. Highlighted horses are very likely to be overlays. Be very aware of them at all times.

Track Biases

Track Biases can and do occur. Sometimes it pays to be alert for them.

There are two types of biases.

1. Inner and Outer Rail Position Biases.

2. Running Style Biases

If the outside horses seem to be winning all the races, you might consider playing an outside horse over an inside horse (and vice versa.)

If all the races seem to be won on the front end, you might want to consider playing top ranked CPace and PMI horses.

If all the races seem to be won by closers, you might want to take a closer look at PAL and L3 horses.

Good Bet/Bad Bet

Always insist on getting value before you wager. One question you should not be asking yourself before heading to the window: "Which horse is the winner in here?" Instead you should be thinking: "Is this really a great bet? Or should I be sitting on my hands here?" JCapper has some very good tools for uncovering value. Time spent at the Data Window running single factors and UDMs by AProbOL, PScore OL, various Divisors, various Odds Ranges, and various Odds Ratios will eventually teach you something about the value of finding value before you bet. Take advantage of the tools found in JCapper designed for play or pass decision making.

A Very Blatant Example

SMUGGLERS RUN $56.80

Figure 01 (above) R5 Santa Anita on 02-05-2005.

Note Race Volatility for the race: 180. This indicates a very playable race with a contentious field. Note that the 8 horse SMUGGLERS RUN is a UDM selection having been selected by the Out of the Box UDM (DS_JCapper_OOB) that comes with the program. Note that SMUGGLERS RUN is also highlighted in bright yellow. This indicates a MLine Odds Ratio II that is at least double the program's AProbOL of 5-1, a very strong indicator that this horse will be overlooked by the public in the wagering. SMUGGLERS RUN won this race and paid $56.80 to win. The place horse, HAINT YOU GRAND was ranked 1st in TPace. Exacta players might be interested to learn that the exacta paid $597.20.

A Rather Good Example

WHIZBANG $30.80

Figure 02 (above) R5 Belmont on 05-20-2005.

Note that the 6 horse WHIZBANG is a UDM selection having been selected by the Out of the Box UDM (DS_JCapper_OOB) that comes with the program as well as six other UDMs. The six other UDMs are of my own creation. The point I'd like to make here is horses selected by multiple UDMs should never be taken lightly.

Note that WHIZBANG is also highlighted in bright yellow. This indicates a MLine Odds Ratio II that is at least double the program's AProbOL of roughly 5-2, a very strong indicator that this horse will be overlooked by the public in the wagering. WHIZBANG ran away with this race and paid $30.80 to win. The place horse, FEAR THE CAPE was ranked 3rd in JRating. Exacta players might be interested to learn that the exacta paid $202.50.

Another Very Blatant Example

ISLAND LORE $100.80

Figure 04 (below) R10 Gulfstream on 02-02-2005.

There were no Out of the Box UDM Selections for this race. But focus your attention on the #3 horse ISLAND LORE. ISLAND LORE has the top JRating for the race and was sent to post at odds of 49.40 to one. Race Volatility for this race, like the previous example, is a healthy 180. This is indicative of a contentious and possibly playable race. ISLAND LORE won this race and paid $100.80 to win. There was a dead head for second between OBERONS GIRL and TIGER FEVER. The $433.40 exacta to TIGER FEVER may have been gettable for exacta players. TIGER FEVER was ranked 1st in CPace, TPace, WoBrill, and Form.

Figure 04 GPX R10 02-02-2005

It Happened Again (12 days later)

SUMMER TONE $113.80

Figure 05 (below) R10 Gulfstream on 02-14-2005.

There were no Out of the Box UDM Selections for this race. But I’d like to bring focus to just one horse: The #2 SUMMER TONE. With the top JRating for the race and sent to post at odds of 55.90 to one, this horse immediately gets my full attention as an overlay. Note that Race Volatility for this race is a healthy 154. This is again indicative of a contentious and possibly playable race. What happened in this race? SUMMER TONE won the race and paid $113.80 to win. I had to do a double take when I looked at this race because for a moment I thought I was looking at the exact same race shown in the previous example. The 13 horse, ARRANGEMENT, finished second. Was the $780.20 exacta gettable in here? ARRANGEMENT ranked second in Bris Prime Power. Personally, I missed the exacta in here and had to "settle" for the win.. Oh well, hindsight is golden.

Figure 05 GPX R10 02-14-2005

Let’s do another one. Fast forward almost one full year to Saturday 01/28/2006. It’s Sunshine Millions Day at Gulfstream Park. In the 9^th race, Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey is making his last ride. There’s media hype about his retirement. NBC decides to do a live broadcast. Jerry Bailey’s last ride is televised in front of a national audience. It’s the perfect setting for an overlay. Because of the media hype the public bets Jerry Bailey’s horse down to 4/5. Everybody wants Jerry Bailey to go out on top. There’s just one problem with that. Jerry isn’t riding the only horse in the race. Focus your attention on #1 MIESQUES APPROVAL. Forget for a moment about the program author’s two UDMs pointing to this horse. For those of you willing to do your own research, development of effective turf UDMs is something JCapper’s Data Window and UDM Wizard will put well within your reach. MIESQUES APPROVAL has many positives on this HTML Report but I’d like you to focus on just four things:

1. MIESQUES APPROVAL has the top JRating in the race.

2. MIESQUES APPROVAL was picked up by Overlay Highlighting.

3. MIESQUES APPROVAL was 50-1 on the tote board.

4. The above three things spell OVERLAY.

What happened in this race? MIESQUES APPROVAL won the race under a flawless ride from Eddie Castro spoiling Jerry Bailey’s retirement party in front of a national television audience and paid $99.60 to win.

Figure 06 GPX R9 01-28-2006

I wanted to add a couple of screenshots of the JCapper2007 HTML Report. The first race shown is R1 from 09-04-2004 at Saratoga. In this race #12 MEGATREND was the top ranked horse in JPR, UPR, QRating, Form, WoBrill, AFR, CFA, and PMI. The 6-1 morning line odds vs. the 2.48-1 JPRMLProb Race Odds Line caused overlay highlighting to kick in. Race Volatility was 132.99. This horse was an obvious standout and paid $20.60 to win. A screenshot of the HTML Report is shown below.

Figure 07 SAR R1 09-04-2004

This next race is R5 from 03-25-2007 at Santa Anita. #4 NO LULLABY was ranked tops in JPR, UPR, and CFA. The 30-1 morning line vs. the 7-2 JPRMLProb Odds Line caused overlay highlighting to kick in. Race Volatility was 173.44. NO LULLABY paid $78.00 to win. The second place horse, LEMON FLOWER, was ranked 2^nd in AFR and 4^th in QRating, JPRClass, WoBrill, and CFA. The $2.00 exacta, which was gettable, paid $500.80. The HTML Report for this race is shown below.

Figure 08 SAX R5 03-25-2007

Bombs like these don't come along every day. Far more common are logical choices that pay between $9.00 and $16.00 to win. But when the public looks the other way on very gettable horses, in playable contentious races, and the gettable horses are overlooked by the Morning Line Odds Maker as well, chances are you are staring at a great bet.

Reports Generated in JCapper by Calc Races Routines

The HTML Report is not the only report available in JCapper. The following section describes all of the JCapper reports (as of 3/31/2007) created by JCapper Calc Races routines.

HTML Report One - (Filename: Report_1.html) The JCapper HTML Report shows the significant factors with numbers and rankings for every horse in an easy to follow format. All potential UDM plays are highlighted for easy identification. There are hyperlinks so that the user can freely navigate from track to track and race to race. HTML Report One contains information for every race found in all loaded race card files and is created whenever a standard Calc Races routine is run using the Calculate Races button.

HTML Report Two - (Filename: Report_2.html) This JCapper HTML Report is exactly the same as HTML Report One except that it contains information for a single track only and is created whenever a Calc Races is run for a selected single track only.

Text Report One - (Filename: AtAPrice.txt) The JCapper Text Report shows all UDM Plays for the day neatly organized in one place. Here you'll find a header for each race that contains the Track, Race Number, Surface and Distance, and the class descriptor and RaceVolatility for the race. All potential positive expectation UDM plays in each race are laid out for you. Here you'll find post position, name of horse, name of rider, name of trainer, the name of the UDM that the horse qualifies for, morning line odds, and finally, the BettingInstructions from the UDM definition are shown in brackets. Seeing this report leaves very little doubt as to what horse(s) should be played or at what odds. It's right there in a very easy to follow format. Text Report One contains information for all horses that qualify as potential UDM plays in every race found in all loaded race card files and is created whenever a standard Calc Races routine is run using the Calculate Races button.

Text Report Two - (Filename: AtAPrice2.txt) This JCapper Text Report is exactly the same as Text Report One except that it contains information for a single track only and is created whenever a Calc Races is run for a selected single track only.

CSV File One – The JCapper Calc Races routine also creates a comma delimited CSV file designed for use in third party spreadsheet products such as Microsoft Excel. The filename is Plays.CSV and can be found on the Default Data Folder. The information found in this file is similar to that found in the Text Report file. The major advantage of using the CSV Report file over a Text Report is that races can be sorted in post time order. The user also has the ability to rename the file and permanently save it. Advanced users have used this file as a starting point and have added custom fields to their own XLS for the specific purpose of tracking betting results from live play.

CSV File Two – This CSV file is exactly the same as CSV File One except that it contains information for a single track only and is created whenever a Calc Races is run for a selected single track only.

Daily Export Files – The JCapper Calc Races routine also creates the following comma delimited text files:

1. ForBill.TXT- This file contains information about each horse and includes rankings, numeric values, and gaps for hundreds of JCapper factors. Some advanced users use this file as a data source for their own custom handicapping programs.

2. ForBill2.TXT – This file is exactly the same as ForBill.TXT except that it contains information for a single track only and is created when a Calc Races routine is run for a single track only.

3. ForJeff.TXT – This file contains all the information found in the ForBill.TXT file. In addition, those horses that are found by the Profile Marker to fit active UDM Definitions are “marked” with mark characters. Again, some advanced users use this file as a data source for their own custom handicapping programs.

4. ForJeff2.TXT - This file is exactly the same as ForJeff.TXT except that it contains information for a single track only and is created when a Calc Races routine is run for a single track only.

Happy Hunting and Good Luck,

-jp