Finding an Edge

Author:†††††††††††††††† Jeff Platt

Date Last Modified: 10/ 01/ 2007

 

 

 

INTRODUCTION

I wanted to do a write up on finding an edge. Over the past several weeks I've had a number of lengthy phone conversations with new users taking the Demo for the first time. Many of them have tried other computer programs in the past only to be disappointed. Some were disappointed with JCapper2007 too. Not because JCapper2007 couldn't produce for them. Clearly it can - if they were only willing to give it a serious workout.

 

If feedback from users abandoning the demo is accurate, the number one reason I have heard over and over is that the program is just far more complicated than what they expected it to be. To quote one user who gave up within the first 30 minutes: "I'm looking for a program to help me handicap. I'm not interested in learning how to write computer language."

 

New users are amazed to discover that performing Data Window research and determining first hand which (if any) from among the hundreds of available factors (and unlimited combinations of factors) that might lead to profitable play takes a real time commitment on their part. They are also amazed to discover that taking information discovered during Data Window research and modeling that information into UDMs and testing those UDMs against a development database and then verifying the performance of those UDMs against a validation database before going forward with live play... wait a minuteÖ that's not handicappingÖ NooooÖ That sounds like work too.

 

Hey. I never said learning to win was easy. The simple truth is getting to where I'm at now was a decades long journey. Trying to impart my own knowledge and experiences gained on that journey to those just starting out is no easy task.

 

But I'm going to try anyway. You see I believe winning is a skill that can be learned. And if it can be learned then it can be taught.

 

A lot of beginning players are naive. Theyíve heard and read some really good things about the original JCapper. Some of them think of the JRating as a magic number where all they have to do is bet the top ranked horse and rake in the dollars. In a sense that was true. Before I let the first person other than myself see a copy of JCapper the top ranked JRating horse nationwide was producing a flat bet win roi of more than .97 to $1.00. Right now it looks like things have stabilized to where the top ranked JRating horse is returning a flat bet win roi of about .928 to $1.00... Thatís just under break even if you factor in a 7 percent rebate. Imagine that.

 

When I decided on the factor mix for JPR that was going into JCapper2007 I wanted to avoid tempting someone with a large bankroll into just blindly hammering JPR horses at the windows like had previously been the case with JRating horses. The JPR algorithm I decided to use has historically produced a flat bet win roi of about .91 to $1.00. I realize it's very early in the game. As I write this JPR has only been out for about 10 weeks now but those numbers seem to be holding up pretty solidly.

 

What a losing player seeking to become a winning player needs to realize is that winning isn't about finding some magic number. Yes. Good numbers help. They are easier to work with than bad numbers. But winning is really about discipline and hard work. It's about finding an edge - and then carrying that edge into the long run.

 

I'll save the subject of carrying an edge into the long run for another time. This article is about using JCapper2007 to find an edge of your own.

 

 

THE NATURE OF THE GAME

Horse race betting is pari-mutuel in nature. That means that the more money bet on an individual horse the lower the odds. It has been said that the betting public makes a pretty good opponent. No, Iím not talking about each individual bettor. Iím talking about the collective intelligence of all bettors everywhere. As each race is bet, tens of thousands of bettors each weigh and apply the dozen or so (in some cases more) handicapping factors they think will shape the outcome of the race at hand. Collectively, they reach, by my rough estimate, somewhere between one and two million decision points as they handicap each race. As long as there has been modern day thoroughbred racing, post time favorites have won approximately 33 percent of all races. However, in recent years, because average field size has been shrinking, the win percentage of post time favorites has risen. My calendar year 2006 database shows that post time favorites (with no attempt to break ties for post time favoritism) won almost 35 percent of all races. 81.47 percent of all races were won by one of the first four choices in the betting. That should tell you quite clearly that quite a bit of collective intelligence exists in the odds.

 

All right. So how does a beginning player take advantage of that?

 

UNDERSTANDING THE GAME

One of the things that I was slow to realize is that one of the keys to becoming a winning player is getting an understanding of what drives the betting in the first place. For various reasons, the overwhelming majority of bettors consistently factor Speed Figures into their decision making process at some point. Because of this, most of the time, horses with high speed figures relative to the rest of the field tend to attract most of the money in the betting. In recent years, for various reasons, bettors have become very much aware of trainer records. Because of this, whenever a big name trainer enters a horse into a race, that horse is also likely to attract its share of the money in the betting. Same thing can be said about jockeys. Quite often, the betting public overreacts to a rider considered to be a better rider than those he (or she) is competing against by betting a disproportionate amount of money on that riderís horse. What about class? Again, the betting public is very much aware that a horse dropping in class today is likely to run an improved performance compared to its most recent start. So class droppers tend to get bet. Same thing can be said about finish position. Horses that finished in the money (first, second, or third) in their most recent starts tend to attract more money than horses that finished up the track.

 

It should be obvious at this point. The key to becoming a winning player lies in understanding how the public bets and acting accordingly. The winning player has to know how to avoid horses that are over bet and identify and play horses that are under bet.

 

Iím going to introduce three maxims:

†††††††††

††† ††††† 1. Modern thoroughbred pari-mutuel pools are efficient by nature.

 

2. Horses with obvious positives in their past performance records will almost always be over bet.

 

3. Horses with hidden positives in their past performance records will sometimes be under bet.

 

 

The trick to winning then is really being able to identify horses with hidden positives in their past performance records and betting on them yourself only when you know that the public is under betting them.

 

HIDDEN POSITIVES

In this next section Iím going to cover some common hidden positives. These are things that you can find in a horseís past performance record that are frequently overlooked by the betting public. As such, these areas can make really good starting points for UDMs and UPR for the savvy player.

 

Note: All data in the charts presented below are from my own calendar year 2006 database which was compiled using $1.00 Bris Single Format DRF data files. TSN file users will see similar but slightly different results.

 

EARLY SPEED

I first started using a computer to perform my own research and analyze thoroughbred racing data back in 1985. Before that I did calculations manually and kept hand written records in notebooks. One of the very first things I noticed about the winning percentages of different factors was that final time was more predictive than early speed. So it seemed perfectly logical to me as a bettor that I should give final time based speed factors more weight in my handicapping than early speed. What I didnít realize at the time was the way the public bets the races. The betting public always has been very much aware that final time produces higher win percentages than early speed or early pace. As long as Iíve been following racing the public has always had a tendency to overemphasize final time and late speed when they bet the majority of the races. At the same they have always had a counter tendency: they consistently under bet early speed. That same general betting pattern is still prevalent today. This discovery was one of many that lead me in the right direction Ė and ultimately put me on the path to becoming a winning player.

 

JCapper has a number of factors that reflect a horseís early speed ability. CPace, AVGE1, BestE2, PctE, PaceFig, TurnTime, V1, and several others all can be used in UDMs to identify (and exclude) horses with early speed. Here in this document Iím only going to cover CPace, BestE2, and 2FPace Fig (Last Start.)

 

CPace

†††† By: CPace Rank (2006)

 

†††† Rank†† ††††Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††††† Pct††† Impact

††††††† 1†† -3887.3050402.00††† 0.9229†† 544225201†††† .2159††† 1.7437

††††††† 2†† -8310.9050298.00††† 0.8348†† 425025149†††† .1690††† 1.3646

††††††† 3†† -8864.1050344.00††† 0.8239†† 372025172†††† .1478††† 1.1933

††††††† 4-10202.1050298.00††† 0.7972†† 316625149†††† .1259††† 1.0166

††††††† 5-13914.9049820.00††† 0.7207†† 262224910†††† .1053††† 0.8500

††††††† 6-13153.7046756.00††† 0.7187†† 222223378†††† .0950††† 0.7675

††††††† 7-13780.1039054.00††† 0.6472†† 160519527†††† .0822††† 0.6637

††††††† 8†† -9921.9028840.00††† 0.6560†† 102914420†††† .0714††† 0.5762

††††††† 9†† -7619.6019580.00††† 0.6108††† 638†† 9790†††† .0652††† 0.5262

†††††† 10†† -4685.2012616.00††† 0.6286††† 370†† 6308†††† .0587††† 0.4736

†††††† 11†† -2751.90†† 6834.00††† 0.5973††† 173†† 3417†††† .0506††† 0.4088

†††††† 12†† -1681.80†† 3394.00††† 0.5045†††† 66†† 1697†††† .0389††† 0.3141

†††††† 13††† -113.20††† 484.00††† 0.7661†††† 12††† 242†††† .0496††† 0.4004

†††††† 14†††† 193.00††† 200.00††† 1.9650††††† 6††† 100†††† .0600††† 0.4845

†††††† 15††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†††† .0000††† 0.0000

†††††† 16††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†††† .0000††† 0.0000

†††††† 17††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†††† .0000††† 0.0000

†††††† 18††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†††† .0000††† 0.0000

†††††† 19+†††† -4.00††††† 4.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 2†††† .0000††† 0.0000

 

 

BestE2

†† ††By: Best E2 Rank

 

†††† Rank†††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

††††††† 1†† -7322.8061148.00††† 0.8802†† 616830574†† .2017†††† 1.6330

††††††† 2†† -9241.7053152.00††† 0.8261†† 429126576†† .1615†††† 1.3070

††††††† 3-9237.6050980.00††† 0.8188†† 358725490†† .1407†††† 1.1391

††††††† 4-11326.3050100.00††† 0.7739†† 299025050†† .1194†††† 0.9662

††††††† 5-13677.5048408.00††† 0.7175†† 253824204†† .1049†††† 0.8488

††††††† 6-12422.6044136.00††† 0.7185†† 203222068†† .0921†††† 0.7453

††††††† 7-10254.8035834.00††† 0.7138†† 145617917†† .0813†††† 0.6578

††††††† 8†† -9352.4025486.00††† 0.6330††† 89312743†† .0701†††† 0.5673

††††††† 9†† -5748.6017136.00††† 0.6645††† 557†† 8568†† .0650†††† 0.5262

†††††† 10†† -3943.3010344.00††† 0.6188††† 279†† 5172†† .0539†††† 0.4367

†††††† 11†† -1538.10†† 4918.00††† 0.6873††† 127†† 2459†† .0516†††† 0.4181

†††††† 12††† -674.70†† 2328.00††† 0.7102†††† 63†† 1164†† .0541†††† 0.4381

†††††† 13†††† -91.90††† 490.00††† 0.8124††††† 9††† 245†† .0367†††† 0.2974

†††††† 14††††† 41.00††† 214.00††† 1.1916††††† 7††† 107†† .0654†††† 0.5296

†††††† 15†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 16††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 17††††† -4.00††††† 4.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 2†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 18†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 19+†††† -4.00††††† 4.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 2†† .0000†††† 0.0000

 

 

 

2F Pace Fig (Last Start)

†††† By: 73†† rankForPaceFig_2F_InLast

 

†††† Rank†††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

††††††† 1†† -7205.3056844.00††† 0.8732†† 532428422†† .1873†††† 1.5163

††††††† 2-10410.7052914.00††† 0.8033†† 409626457†† .1548†††† 1.2532

††††††† 3-11074.7051246.00††† 0.7839†† 353425623†† .1379†††† 1.1164

††††††† 4-11756.9050578.00††† 0.7675†† 317825289†† .1257†††† 1.0172

††††††† 5-14332.7048990.00††† 0.7074†† 266424495†† .1088†††† 0.8803

††††††† 6-11134.9044726.00††† 0.7510†† 229322363†† .1025†††† 0.8300

††††††† 7-10875.1036390.00††† 0.7012†† 164118195†† .0902†††† 0.7301

††††††† 8†† -7821.7026544.00††† 0.7053†† 106013272†† .0799†††† 0.6465

††††††† 9†† -4975.5017432.00††† 0.7146††† 638†† 8716†† .0732†††† 0.5925

†††††† 10†† -3029.3010772.00††† 0.7188††† 345†† 5386†† .0641†††† 0.5185

†††††† 11†† -1570.90†† 5152.00††† 0.6951††† 149†† 2576†† .0578†††† 0.4682

†††††† 12††† -432.00†† 2354.00††† 0.8165†††† 59†† 1177†† .0501†††† 0.4058

†††††† 13††††† 30.20††† 510.00††† 1.0592†††† 14††† 255†† .0549†††† 0.4444

†††††† 14††† -199.80††† 220.00††† 0.0918††††† 2††† 110†† .0182†††† 0.1472

†††††† 15††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 16††††† -4.00††††† 4.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 2†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 17†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 18††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 19+†††† -4.00††††† 4.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 2†† .0000†††† 0.0000

 

I want you to take note of the win rates and flat win bet roi of the top ranked horses for all three of these factors. Then scroll down below and compare them to the win rates and flat bet win roi of the top ranked horses for their corresponding final time based speed figure or late pace factor counterparts. Compare CPace to CFA. Compare BestE2 to Bris Speed Figure (Best of Last 10.) Compare 2F Pace Call (Last Start) to both Bris Speed Figure (Last Start) and Late Pace (Last Line.)

 

Statistically, final time based speed figures produce a higher win rate. But as long as Iíve been compiling statistics on racing early speed based factors have always produced a higher flat bet win roi than their final time based counterparts.

 

 

 

 

SPEED FIGURES

The charts below show actual Data Window output for several different final time based speed figure categories. There are a few things I want to point out. First, the betting public overemphasizes the last line of a horseís past performance record. This can be evidenced by comparing the flat bet win roi of top ranked Bris Speed Figure (Last Race) horses against flat bet win roi of Bris Speed Figure (Best of Last 10) horses. In almost any pace line selection method I have ever tested, giving the last line a lower weight than the best line produces a higher flat bet win roi for the model being developed.

 

A second thing I want to point out has to do with the value of proprietary information. Take a look at the flat bet win roi of the top ranked JCapper Weighted Figure and compare it to the flat bet win roi of the Bris Speed Figure. Bris makes a more accurate (predictive) speed figure than the JCapper Weighted Figure. But the JCapper Weighted Figure factors in a horseís early speed ability to produce a higher roi.

 

Finally, take a look at CFA. CFA is the result of a JCapper algorithm where representative pace lines (speed figures Ė both JCapper Weighted and Bris) are selected from a horseís past performance record and then crunched into a final number. CFA is both more predictive and produces a higher flat bet win roi than Bris Speed Figures do.

 

CFA

†††† Rank†††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††††† Pct††† Impact

††††††† 1†† -5663.7050984.00††† 0.8889†† 671025492††† .2632††† 2.1255

††††††† 2†† -6563.6051300.00††† 0.8721†† 497125650†††† .1938††† 1.5649

††††††† 3-10556.8051908.00††† 0.7966†† 377225954†††† .1453††† 1.1736

††††††† 4-12442.5051888.00††† 0.7602†† 295125944†††† .1137††† 0.9185

††††† ††5-13228.3051592.00††† 0.7436†† 248525796†††† .0963††† 0.7779

††††††† 6-13875.3047038.00††† 0.7050†† 178223519†††† .0758††† 0.6118

††††††† 7-13860.5038756.00††† 0.6424†† 114919378†††† .0593††† 0.4788

††††††† 8†† -9049.1027586.00 †††0.6720††† 71213793†††† .0516††† 0.4168

††††††† 9†† -5613.6018158.00††† 0.6908††† 432†† 9079†††† .0476††† 0.3842

†††††† 10†† -3861.3010966.00††† 0.6479††† 227†† 5483†††† .0414††† 0.3343

†††††† 11†† -2753.70†† 6044.00††† 0.5444††† 101†† 3022†††.0334††† 0.2699

†††††† 12†† -1350.00†† 2280.00††† 0.4079†††† 22†† 1140†††† .0193††† 0.1558

†††††† 13†††† 114.30††† 320.00††† 1.3572††††† 5††† 160†††† .0312††† 0.2523

†††††† 14†††† -92.20††† 100.00††† 0.0780††††† 1†††† 50†††† .0200††† 0.1615

††† †††15††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†††† .0000††† 0.0000

†††††† 16††††† 96.60††††† 6.00†† 17.1000††††† 1††††† 3†††† .3333††† 2.6917

†††††† 17†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†††† .0000††† 0.0000

†††††† 18†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†††† .0000††† 0.0000

†††††† 19††††† -4.00††††† 4.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 2†††† .0000††† 0.0000

 

WEIGHTED FIGURE

†††† By: Weighted Figure Rank

 

†††† Rank†††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

††††††† 1 ††-6161.8050638.00††† 0.8783†† 576825319†† .2278†††† 1.8441

††††††† 2†† -9964.5050822.00††† 0.8039†† 426725411†† .1679†††† 1.3592

††††††† 3†† -9371.9050794.00††† 0.8155†† 373125397†† .1469†††† 1.1892

††††††† 4-12091.0051486.00††† 0.7652†† 307125743†† .1193†††† 0.9656

††††††† 5-11761.7050260.00††† 0.7660†† 272525130†† .1084†††† 0.8778

††††††† 6-12968.1046570.00††† 0.7215†† 205423285†† .0882†††† 0.7140

††††††† 7-12366.7037952.00††† 0.6741†† 139418976†† .0735†††† 0.5946

††††††† 8†† -8925.0027766.00††† 0.6786††† 91913883†† .0662†††† 0.5358

††††††† 9†† -4856.6018384.00††† 0.7358††† 551†† 9192†† .0599†††† 0.4852

†††††† 10†† -2795.0011292.00††† 0.7525††† 313†† 5646†† .0554†††† 0.4487

†††††† 11†† -2310.00†† 5402.00††† 0.5724††† 129†† 2701†† .0478†††† 0.3866

†††††† 12†† -1107.10†† 2514.00††† 0.5596†††† 51†† 1257†† .0406†††† 0.3284

†††††† 13††† -140.50††† 544.00††† 0.7417†††† 18††† 272†† .0662†††† 0.5357

†††††† 14††††† 31.80††† 240.00††† 1.1325††††5††† 120†† .0417†††† 0.3373

†††††† 15††††† -6.00††††† 6.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 3†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 16†††††† 0.80††††† 6.00††† 1.1333††††† 1††††† 3†† .3333†††† 2.6982

†††††† 17††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 18††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 19††††† -4.00††††† 4.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 2†† .0000†††† 0.0000

 

 

 

Bris Speed Figure (Last Line)

††† By: 62†† rankForLastRaceBrisFig

 

†††† Rank†††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

††††††† 1†† -8624.7056186.00††† 0.8465†† 730728093†† .2601†††† 2.1054

††††††† 2†† -9399.9053124.00††† 0.8231†† 473126562†† .1781†††† 1.4418

††††††† 3-10190.6051266.00††† 0.8012†† 354025633†† .1381†††† 1.1179

††††††† 4-12003.2050714.00††† 0.7633†† 279225357†† .1101†††† 0.8913

††††††† 5-10991.1049048.00††† 0.7759†† 223824524†† .0913†††† 0.7387

††††††† 6-11389.6044708.00††† 0.7452†† 171922354†† .0769†††† 0.6225

††††††† 7-11160.0036328.00††† 0.6928†† 116018164†† .0639†††† 0.5169

††††††† 8†† -9144.1026602.00††† 0.6563††† 68813301†† .0517†††† 0.4187

††††††† 9†† -4975.1017592.00††† 0.7172††† 438†† 8796†† .0498†††† 0.4031

†††††† 10†† -4056.1010764.00††† 0.6232††† 228†† 5382†† .0424†††† 0.3429

†††††† 11†† -1464.90†† 5134.00††† 0.7147††† 108†† 2567†† .0421†††† 0.3406

†††††† 12†† -1231.60†† 2418.00††† 0.4907†††† 33†† 1209†† .0273†††† 0.2209

†††††† 13††††† 64.10††† 540.00††† 1.1187†††† 14††† 270†† .0519†††† 0.4197

†††††† 14††† -218.50††† 244.00††† 0.1045††††† 1††† 122†† .0082†††† 0.0663

†††††† 15††††† -6.00††††† 6.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 3†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 16††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 17††††† -4.00††††† 4.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 2†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 18†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 19††††† -4.00††††† 4.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 2†† .0000†††† 0.0000

 

 

 

 

Bris Speed Figure (Best of Last 10)

†††† By: Bris Speed Figure Rank (Best of Last 10)

 

†††† Rank†††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

††††††† 1†† -8108.6056982.00††† 0.8577†† 691728491†† .2428†††† 1.9652

††††††† 2†† -9410.8054264.00††† 0.8266†† 485027132†† .1788 ††††1.4470

††††††† 3†† -9244.9052022.00††† 0.8223†† 388926011†† .1495†††† 1.2103

††††††† 4-10056.2051372.00††† 0.8042†† 298825686†† .1163†††† 0.9416

††††††† 5-10817.1048850.00††† 0.7786†† 232924425†† .0954†††† 0.7719

††††††† 6-12728.4044176.00††† 0.7119†† 160622088†† .0727†††† 0.5886

††††††† 7-11541.8035444.00††† 0.6744†† 107917722†† .0609†††† 0.4928

††††††† 8†† -8968.2025992.00††† 0.6550††† 64812996†† .0499†††† 0.4036

††††††† 9†† -7308.2017202.00††† 0.5752†† 356†† 8601†† .0414†††† 0.3350

†††††† 10†† -3049.3010314.00††† 0.7044††† 210†† 5157†† .0407†††† 0.3296

†††††† 11†† -2162.30†† 5018.00††† 0.5691†††† 86†† 2509†† .0343†††† 0.2775

†††††† 12†† -1019.20†† 2310.00††† 0.5588†††† 27†† 1155†† .0234†††† 0.1892

†††††† 13††† -209.30††† 508.00††† 0.5880††††† 9††† 254†† .0354†††† 0.2868

†††††† 14††† -173.00††† 226.00††† 0.2345††††† 3††† 113†† .0265†††† 0.2149

†††††† 15†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 16†††††† 0.00†† †††0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 17†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 18†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 19††††† -4.00††††† 4.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††† ††2†† .0000†††† 0.0000

 

 

FORM

Current Form is one key area where I have discovered the betting public is lacking in when it comes to how they bet the races. JCapper has a number of form based factors that you can use in your models. The charts below all very clearly demonstrate that horses rated high in numerical form based factors frequently have hidden positives in their past performance records that the public consistently underestimates.

 

 

AFR

†††† By: AFR Rank

 

†††† Rank†††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††††† Pct††† Impact

††††††† 1†† -5110.5050654.00††† 0.8991†† 492825327†††† .1946††† 1.5712

††††††† 2†† -8723.0050594.00††† 0.8276†† 420525297†††† .1662††† 1.3423

††††††† 3†† -8722.7050518.00††† 0.8273†† 374225259†††† .1481 †††1.1963

††††††† 4-10393.1050246.00††† 0.7932†† 337425123†††† .1343††† 1.0845

††††††† 5-12176.8049202.00††† 0.7525†† 297724601†††† .1210††† 0.9772

††††††† 6-12999.7046048.00††† 0.7177†† 241223024†††† .1048††† 0.8459

††††††† 7-13096.1038730.00††† 0.6619†† 160819365†††† .0830††† 0.6705

††††††† 8-10116.7028730.00††† 0.6479†† 101114365†††† .0704††† 0.5683

††††††† 9†† -6951.2019510.00††† 0.6437††† 567†† 9755†††† .0581††† 0.4693

†††††† 10†† -5400.7012782.00††† 0.5775††† 296†† 6391†††† .0463††† 0.3740

†††††† 11†† -2786.40†† 6970.00††† 0.6002††† 138†† 3485†††† .0396††† 0.3198

†††††† 12†† -1615.70†† 3748.00††† 0.5689†††† 49†† 1874†††† .0261††† 0.2111

†††††† 13††† -356.50††† 660.00††† 0.4598††††† 9††† 330†††† .0273††† 0.2202

†††††† 14††† -161.50††† 412.00††† 0.6080††††† 4††† 206†††† .0194††† 0.1568

†††††† 15†††† -56.00†††† 56.00††† 0.0000††††† 0†††† 28†††† .0000††† 0.0000

†††††† 16†††† -31.10†††† 64.00††† 0.5141††††† 1†††† 32†††† .0312††† 0.2523

†††††† 17††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†††† .0000††† 0.0000

†††††† 18††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†††† .0000††† 0.0000

†††††† 19††††† -4.00††††† 4.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 2†††† .0000††† 0.0000

 

 

 

WOBRILL

†††† By: Workout Brilliance Rank (2006 1st time starters removed)

 

†††† Rank†††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

††††††† 1†† -5593.8056182.00††† 0.9004†† 481428091†† .1714†††† 1.3548

††††††† 2-10511.5059542.00††† 0.8235†† 437429771†† .1469†††† 1.1615

††††††† 3-15458.5059846.00††† 0.7417†† 393529923†† .1315†††† 1.0396

††††††† 4-14442.2057026.00††† 0.7467†† 347528513†† .1219†††† 0.9635

††††††† 5-13060.6048320.00††† 0.7297†† 281224160†† .1164†††† 0.9201

††††††† 6-10400.5036826.00††† 0.7176†† 192618413†† .1046†††† 0.8269

††††††† 7†† -7379.0025138.00††† 0.7065†† 116012569†† .0923†††† 0.7296

††††††† 8†† -3994.1016048.00††† 0.7511††† 689†† 8024†† .0859†††† 0.6788

††††††† 9†† -3323.80†† 9454.00††† 0.6484††† 369†† 4727†† .0781†††† 0.6171

†††††† 10†† -1659.00†† 4966.00††† 0.6659††† 196†† 2483†† .0789†††† 0.6240

†††††† 11††† -835.10†† 2376.00††† 0.6485†††† 65†† 1188†† .0547†††† 0.4325

†††††† 12††† -536.20††† 924.00††† 0.4197†††† 19††† 462†† .0411†† ††0.3251

†††††† 13†††† -73.50††† 156.00††† 0.5288††††† 3†††† 78†† .0385†††† 0.3041

†††††† 14†††† -66.00†††† 66.00††† 0.0000††††† 0†††† 33†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 15††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 16††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 17††††† -6.00††††† 6.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 3†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 18†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 19††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000†††† 0††††† 1†† .0000†††† 0.0000

 

 

By: Workout Brilliance Rank (2006 1st time starters only)

 

†††† Rank†††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

††††††† 1††† -574.80†† 4232.00††† 0.8642††† 305†† 2116†† .1441†††† 1.7273

††††††† 2††† -678.30†† 3986.00††† 0.8298††† 223†† 1993†† .1119†††† 1.3409

††††††† 3†† -1162.60†† 3968.00††† 0.7070††† 179†† 1984†† .0902†††† 1.0812

††††††† 4†† -1060.60†† 3598.00††† 0.7052††† 137†† 1799†† .0762†††† 0.9126

††††††† 5†† -1089.70†† 3230.00††† 0.6626†††† 99†† 1615†† .0613†††† 0.7346

††††††† 6††† -809.10†† 2926.00††† 0.7235†††† 93†† 1463†† .0636†††† 0.7618

††††††† 7††† -528.20†† 2184.00††† 0.7582†††† 58†† 1092†† .0531†††† 0.6365

††††††† 8††† -721.10†† 1516.00††† 0.5243†††† 27††† 758†† .0356†††† 0.4269

††††††† 9††† -512.00†† 1036.00††† 0.5058†††† 20††† 518†† .0386†††† 0.4627

†††††† 10††† -261.40††† 610.00††† 0.5715†††† 11††† 305†† .0361†††† 0.4322

†††††† 11††† -282.90††† 346.00††† 0.1824††††† 3††† 173†† .0173†††† 0.2078

†††††† 12††††† 37.80††† 142.00††† 1.2662††††† 4†††† 71†† .0563†††† 0.6751

†††††† 13†††† 193.40†††† 22.00††† 9.7909††††† 1†††† 11†† .0909†††† 1.0894

†††††† 14+†††† -6.00††††† 6.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 3†† .0000†††† 0.0000†††

 

 

FORM RATING

†††† By: Form Rating Rank

 

†††† Rank ††††††Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

††††††† 1†† -6030.4054286.00††† 0.8889†† 457927143†† .1687†††† 1.3656

††††††† 2†† -8078.3050146.00††† 0.8389†† 379425073†† .1513†††† 1.2249

††††††† 3-12787.3049662.00††† 0.7425 ††324624831†† .1307†††† 1.0582

††††††† 4†† -9664.8049618.00††† 0.8052†† 324924809†† .1310†††† 1.0601

††††††† 5-11936.9048942.00††† 0.7561†† 293524471†† .1199†††† 0.9709

††††††† 6-12106.1045606.00††† 0.7346†† 257522803†† .1129†††† 0.9141

††††††† 7-12994.6037842.00††† 0.6566†† 183618921†† .0970†††† 0.7855

††††††† 8†† -8843.5028538.00††† 0.6901†† 127814269†† .0896†††† 0.7250

††††††† 9†† -5363.3019646.00††† 0.7270††† 799†† 9823†† .0813†††† 0.6584

†††††† 10†† -3723.00 11902.00††† 0.6872††† 435†† 5951†† .0731†††† 0.5917

†††††† 11†† -2642.00†† 5564.00††† 0.5252††† 176†† 2782†† .0633†††† 0.5121

†††††† 12††† -722.20†† 2416.00††† 0.7011†††† 81†† 1208†† .0671†††† 0.5428

†††††† 13††††† 76.50††† 420.00††† 1.1821†††† 11††210†† .0524†††† 0.4240

†††††† 14††††† 20.60†††† 90.00††† 1.2289††††† 3†††† 45†† .0667†††† 0.5396

†††††† 15†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 16†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

††††† 17†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 18††††† -4.00††††† 4.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 2†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 19††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†† .0000†††† 0.0000

 

BASIC FITNESS

†††† By: BasicFitness

 

†††† >=Min†††††† <Max††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct†† Impact

†† -999.00†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†† 0.0000

††††† 0.00†††††† 5.00-6678.4018974.00††† 0.6480††† 952†† 9487†† .1003†† 0.8123

††††† 5.00††††† 10.00 -46064.50 173194.00††† 0.73401024786597†† .1183†† 0.9578

†††† 10.00††††† 15.00-6672.8026000.00††† 0.7434†† 144713000†† .1113†† 0.9010

†††† 15.00††††† 20.00 -15104.1062506.00††† 0.7584†† 379831253†† .1215†† 0.9837

†††† 20.00††††† 25.00 -13131.2062646.00††† 0.7904†† 388731323†† .1241†† 1.0045

†††† 25.00††††† 30.00-4382.0035548.00††† 0.8767†† 258017774†† .1452†† 1.1750

†††† 30.00††††† 35.00-2768.3025816.00††† 0.8928†† 208612908†† .1616†† 1.3081

 

 

REC ACTIVITY DAYS LAST START

†††† By: Recent Activity- Days Last Start (2006 with 1st time starters removed)

 

†††† >=Min†††††† <Max††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct†† Impact

††††† -999††††††††† 0††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†† 0.0000

†††††††† 0†††††††† 20 -34136.30 138052.00††† 0.7527†† 838969026†† .1215†† 0.9608

††††††† 20†††††††† 40 -34356.50 154838.00††† 0.77811032677419†† .1334†† 1.0544

††††††† 40†††††††† 60-5920.0036464.00††† 0.8376†† 254018232†† .13931.1013

††††††† 60†††††††† 80-3216.2012180.00††† 0.7359††† 756†† 6090†† .1241†† 0.9814

††††††† 80††††††† 100-1155.90†† 6012.00††† 0.8077††† 346†† 3006†† .1151†† 0.9099

†††††† 100††††††† 120-1022.00†† 3786.00††† 0.7301††† 193†† 1893†† .1020†† 0.8060

†††††† 120††††††† 140†† -204.90†† 3320.00††† 0.9383††† 177†† 1660†† .1066†† 0.8429

†††††† 140††††††† 160†† -997.40†† 2808.00††† 0.6448††† 136†† 1404†† .0969†† 0.7658

†††††† 160††††††† 180†† -376.60†† 2712.00††† 0.8611††† 147†† 1356†† .1084†† 0.8570

††††† 180††††††† 200†† -859.00†† 2506.00††† 0.6572††† 116†† 1253†† .0926†† 0.7319

†††††† 200††††††† 220-1177.10†† 2310.00††† 0.4904††† 100†† 1155†† .0866†† 0.6845

†††††† 220††††††† 240†† -318.90†† 2054.00††† 0.8447††† 107†† 1027†† .1042†† 0.8236

†††††† 240†† †††††260†† -512.60†† 1724.00††† 0.7027†††† 92††† 862†† .1067†† 0.8437

†††††† 260††††††† 280†† -511.70†† 1412.00††† 0.6376†††† 78††† 706†† .1105†† 0.8734

†††††† 280††††††† 300†† -422.00†† 1226.00††† 0.6558†††† 67††† 613†† .1093†† 0.8640

†††††† 300††††††† 320†† -339.30††† 980.00††† 0.6538†††† 59††† 490†† .1204†† 0.9519

†††††† 320††††††† 340†† -240.50††† 844.00††† 0.7150†††† 43††† 422†† .1019†† 0.8055

†††††† 340††††††† 360†† -161.20††† 564.00††† 0.7142†††† 31††† 282†† .1099†† 0.8690

†††††† 360†††† 999999-1417.70†† 3090.00††† 0.5412††† 134†† 1545†† .0867†† 0.6856

 

 

I have found that using form based factors in my UDMs and UPR helps my models emphasize horses with hidden positives. In turn this helps give my models a boost in roi.

 

TRAINER INTENT

The public is very much in tune with well known trainers when it comes to the way they bet the races. As of this writing trainers such as Todd Pletcher, Richard Dutrow, Steve Asmussen, and Robert Frankel are well known for their ability to consistently win a very high percentage of races where they enter a starter. But the public has a tendency to over simplify. They tend to bet the trainer name not how the horse was handled leading up to the race. In other words, the public doesnít really have a firm grasp of trainer intent.

 

JCapper has a number of factors that will allow you to get a very firm grip on trainer intent in your UDMs. Some of the ones I like to use are the CLEAN/DIRTY and XFORM/YFORM preset Filters, the MED preset filters, the EQU preset filters, XthStartForTrainer, XthStartOffOfLayoff, XthStartOnLasix, XthStartForTheMeet, the WOSINCE preset filter, Rec Activity Days Last Start, Rec Activity Days Last Work, Claim Races, Claim Days, and BasicFitness. You can find a complete explanation of these and other JCapper factors on the Supported Factors page at http://www.JCapper.com.

 

CLEAN Preset Filter

†††† By: CANTRUN/XFORM Attribute

 

†††† CANTRUN†††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

†††††††††† 0 -31894.00 188688.00††† 0.83101384894344†† .1468†††† 1.1881Clean Horse

†††††††††† 1-38616.90 153584.00††† 0.7486†† 972576792†† .1266†††† 1.0251XFORM

†††††††††† 2-24290.4062412.00††† 0.6108†† 142431206†† .0456†††† 0.3694CANTRUN

 

 

 

CLAIM RACES

By: Claimed Races Back

 

Claim Races†††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

††††††††† 0-87892.70 367010.00††† 0.760521876 183505†† .1192†††† 0.9650Not Claimed

††††††††† 1†† -2610.4015762.00††† 0.8344†† 1343†† 7881†† .1704†††† 1.3794Claimed 1bk

††††††††† 2†† -1973.0012220.00††† 0.8385†† 1036†† 6110†† .1696†††† 1.3725Claimed 2bk

††††††††† 3†† -2325.20†† 9692.00††† 0.7601††† 742†† 4846†† .1531†††† 1.2394Claimed 3bk

 

 

 

XthStartForTrainer

By: Xth Start For Trainer (With 1st Time Starters Removed)

 

†††† Start #†††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

†††††††††† 1†† -7182.6036762.00††† 0.8046†† 248118381†† .1350†††† 1.0670

†††††††††† 2-12617.7051840.00††† 0.7566†† 328425920†† .1267 ††††1.0016

†††††††††† 3-10953.6041694.00††† 0.7373†† 265820847†† .1275†††† 1.0079

†††††††††† 4†† -8554.0034640.00††† 0.7531†† 227417320†† .1313†††† 1.0379

†††††††††† 5†† -6001.9028884.00††† 0.7922†† 197114442†† .1365†††† 1.0789

††††† †††††6†† -4334.6024340.00††† 0.8219†† 161912170†† .1330†††† 1.0517

†††††††††† 7†† -3311.8021126.00††† 0.8432†† 147410563†† .1395†††† 1.1031

†††††††††† 8†† -3635.2018290.00††† 0.8012†† 1250†† 9145†† .1367†††† 1.0806

†††††††††† 9†† -3538.4016564.00††† 0.7864†† 1081†† 8282†† .1305†††† 1.0318

††††††††† 10†† -3733.3016064.00††† 0.7676†† 1039†† 8032†† .1294†††† 1.0226

††††††††† 11-23482.7086678.00††† 0.7291†† 470643339†† .1086†††† 0.8584

 

 

 

 

XthStartOffOfLayoff

†††† By: Xth Start Off Of Layoff (with 1st Time Starters Removed)

 

†††† Starts†††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

††††††††† 0-26415.80 102582.00††† 0.7425†† 624851291†† .1218†††† 0.9630

††††††††† 1-16363.4067360.00††† 0.7571†† 389333680†† .1156†††† 0.9138

††††††††† 2-15021.4051132.00††† 0.7062†† 309625566†† .1211†††† 0.9573

††††††††† 3†† -8628.5038936.00††† 0.7784†† 259019468†† .1330†††† 1.0517

††††††††† 4†† -4631.4029740.00††† 0.8443†† 212714870†† .1430†††† 1.1308

††††††††† 5†† -3105.0022956.00††† 0.8647†† 162711478†† .1417†††† 1.1206

††††††††† 6†† -3764.6017864.00††† 0.7893†† 1196†† 8932†† .1339†††† 1.0585

††††††††† 7†† -2157.4013976.00††† 0.8456††† 986†† 6988†† .1411†††† 1.1154

††††††††† 8†† -2192.1010858.00††† 0.7981††† 740†† 5429†† .1363†††† 1.0775

††††††††† 9†† -1930.10†† 8578.00††† 0.7750††† 557†† 4289†† .1299†††† 1.0267

†††††††† 10†† -1448.00†† 7080.00††† 0.7955††† 429†† 3540†† .1212†††† 0.9580

†††††††† 11†† -1688.10†† 5820.00††† 0.7099††348†† 2910†† .1196†††† 0.9454

 

 

MEDICATION

By: Medication

 

Medication†††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

†††††††† 0†† -8146.5020228.00††† 0.5973††† 68410114†† .0676†††† 0.5474None

†††††††† 1-77743.80 341604.00††† 0.772421898 170802†† .1282†††† 1.0378Lasix

†††††††† 2††† -292.00†† 1124.00††† 0.7402†††† 57††† 562†† .1014†††† 0.8210Bute

†††††††† 3†† -3378.0014462.00††† 0.7664††† 957†† 7231†† .1323†††† 1.0713Lasix & Bute

†††††††† 4†† -5260.8026504.00††† 0.8015 ††135413252†† .1022†††† 0.82711st Lasix

†††††††† 5††††† 19.80††† 762.00††† 1.0260†††† 47††† 381†† .1234†††† 0.9986Bute & 1L

†††††††† 6†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††††† 7†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0 †††††0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††††† 8†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††††† 9†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000Unknown

 

 

EQUIPMENT CHANGES

†††† By: Equipment Change

 

†††† Change†††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

††††††††† 0-89431.00 381352.00††† 0.765523677 190676†† .1242†††† 1.0051No Change

††††††††† 1†† -3920.5013750.00††† 0.7149††† 709†† 6875†† .1031†††† 0.8348Blinkers On

††††††††† 2††† -556.80 ††6050.00††† 0.9080††† 383†† 3025†† .1266†††† 1.0249Blinkers Off

††††††††† 3†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

††††††††† 4†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

††††††††† 5†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00 †††0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

††††††††† 6†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

††††††††† 7†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

††††††††† 8†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

††††††††† 9††† -893.00†† 3532.00††† 0.7472††† 228†† 1766†† .1291†††† 1.0451Unknown

 

 

 

REC ACTIVITY DAYS LAST START

†††† By: Recent Activity- Days Last Start (2006 with 1st time starters removed)

 

†††† >=Min†††††† <Max††††† Gain††† †††Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct†† Impact

††††† -999††††††††† 0††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†† 0.0000

†††††††† 0†††††††† 20 -34136.30 138052.00††† 0.7527†† 838969026†† .1215†† 0.9608

††††††† 20†††††††† 40 -34356.50 154838.00 †††0.77811032677419†† .1334†† 1.0544

††††††† 40†††††††† 60-5920.0036464.00††† 0.8376†† 254018232†† .1393†† 1.1013

††††††† 60†††††††† 80-3216.2012180.00††† 0.7359††† 756†† 6090†† .1241†† 0.9814

††††††† 80††††††† 100-1155.90†† 6012.00††† 0.8077††† 346†† 3006†† .1151†† 0.9099

†††††† 100††††††† 120-1022.00†† 3786.00††† 0.7301††† 193†† 1893†† .1020†† 0.8060

†††††† 120††††††† 140†† -204.90†† 3320.00††† 0.9383††† 177†† 1660†† .1066†† 0.8429

†††††† 140††††††† 160†† -997.40†† 2808.00††† 0.6448 †††136†† 1404†† .0969†† 0.7658

†††††† 160††††††† 180†† -376.60†† 2712.00††† 0.8611††† 147†† 1356†† .1084†† 0.8570

†††††† 180††††††† 200†† -859.00†† 2506.00††† 0.6572††† 116†† 1253†† .0926†† 0.7319

†††††† 200††††††† 220-1177.10†† 2310.00††† 0.4904††† 100 ††1155†† .0866†† 0.6845

†††††† 220††††††† 240†† -318.90†† 2054.00††† 0.8447††† 107†† 1027†† .1042†† 0.8236

†††††† 240††††††† 260†† -512.60†† 1724.00††† 0.7027†††† 92††† 862†† .1067†† 0.8437

†††††† 260††††††† 280†† -511.70†† 1412.00††† 0.6376†††† 78††† 706 ††.1105†† 0.8734

†††††† 280††††††† 300†† -422.00†† 1226.00††† 0.6558†††† 67††† 613†† .1093†† 0.8640

†††††† 300††††††† 320†† -339.30††† 980.00††† 0.6538†††† 59††† 490†† .1204†† 0.9519

†††††† 320††††††† 340†† -240.50††† 844.00††† 0.7150†††† 43††† 422†† .1019†† 0.8055

†††††† 340††††††† 360†† -161.20††† 564.00††† 0.7142†††† 31††† 282†† .1099†† 0.8690

†††††† 360†††† 999999-1417.70†† 3090.00††† 0.5412††† 134†† 1545†† .0867†† 0.6856

 

 

Using trainer intent factors intelligently in your UDMs (and UPR) is quite often a good way to get your models to select horses with hidden positives in their records and will often point the way towards boosting the roi strength of your overall results.

 

 

CONNECTIONS

JCapper has a number of ratings that allow you to evaluate the effectiveness of a horseís human connections. I personally like to use the CXNRating (or CScore) which represents the combined ability of both the rider and trainer.

 

CXN Rating

†††† By: CXN Rating (2006)

 

†††† >=Min†††††† <Max††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi ††WinsPlays†††† Pct†† Impact

†† -999.00†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†† 0.0000

††††† 0.00†††††† 5.00††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†† 0.0000

††††† 5.00††††† 10.00††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0 †††††0†† .0000†† 0.0000

†††† 10.00††††† 15.00††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†† 0.0000

†††† 15.00††††† 20.00††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†† 0.0000

†††† 20.00††††† 25.00††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0 ††.0000†† 0.0000

†††† 25.00††††† 30.00††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†† 0.0000

†††† 30.00††††† 35.00-1448.90†† 3174.00††† 0.5435†††† 40†† 1587†† .0252†† 0.2040

†††† 35.00††††† 40.00-4081.3011064.00††† 0.6311††† 191†† 5532†† .0345†† 0.2795

†††† 40.00††††† 45.00-6006.0017620.00††† 0.6591††† 405†† 8810†† .0460†† 0.3721

†††† 45.00††††† 50.00-6863.7026166.00††† 0.7377††† 75913083†† .0580†† 0.4696

†††† 50.00††††† 55.00 -10257.0034074.00††† 0.6990†† 113017037†† .0663†† 0.5369

†††† 55.00††††† 60.00 -10346.7040990.00††† 0.7476†† 163620495†† .0798†† 0.6462

†††† 60.00††††† 65.00 -11897.2044100.00††† 0.7302†† 203722050†† .0924†† 0.7478

†††† 65.00††††† 70.00 -10262.3048434.00††† 0.7881†† 278124217†† .1148†† 0.9296

††† 70.00††††† 75.00-9966.2046838.00††† 0.7872†† 309223419†† .1320†† 1.0687

†††† 75.00††††† 80.00-8052.2042522.00††† 0.8106†† 337021261†† .1585†† 1.2831

†††† 80.00††††† 85.00-6151.4034940.00††† 0.8239†† 310017470†† .1774†† 1.4364

†††† 85.00 †††††90.00-5073.3026950.00††† 0.8118†† 282113475†† .2094†† 1.6946

†††† 90.00999999.00-4395.1027812.00††† 0.8420†† 363513906†† .2614†† 2.1159

 

 

†††† By: CXN Rating Rank

 

†††† Rank†††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

††††††† 1†† -8714.4050528.00††† 0.8275†† 585525264†† .2318†††† 1.8760

††††††† 2†† -8335.0049780.00††† 0.8326†† 459724890†† .1847†††† 1.4950

††††††† 3†† -9385.0049630.00††† 0.8109†† 373124815†† .1504†††† 1.2171

††††††† 4-11057.6049600.00††† 0.7771†† 314624800†† .1269†††† 1.0268

††††††† 5-11914.3049056.00††† 0.7571†† 255624528†† .1042†††† 0.8435

††††††† 6-13002.1046032.00††† 0.7175†† 189023016†† .0821†††† 0.6647

††††††† 7-11698.8038412.00††† 0.6954†† 135319206.0704†††† 0.5702

††††††† 8†† -7099.8028668.00††† 0.7523††† 88314334†† .0616†††† 0.4986

††††††† 9†† -6162.6019860.00††† 0.6897††† 491†† 9930†† .0494†††† 0.4002

†††††† 10†† -4459.6012756.00††† 0.6504††† 310†† 6378†† .0486†††† 0.3934

†††††† 11†† -1344.80†† 6570.00††† 0.7953††† 131†† 3285†† .0399†††† 0.3228

†††††† 12†† -1513.40†† 3064.00††† 0.5061†††† 43†† 1532†† .0281†††† 0.2272

†††††† 13††† -151.10††† 564.00††† 0.7321††††† 6††† 282†† .0213†††† 0.1722

†††††† 14††††† 35.00††† 152.00††† 1.2303††††† 4†††† 76†† .0526†††† 0.4260

†††††† 15††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 16††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 17††††† 12.20††††† 2.00††† 7.1000††††† 1††††† 11.0000†††8.0947

†††††† 18††††† -6.00††††† 6.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 3†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 19†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

 

 

The above charts clearly show that horses being handled by competent human connections outperform (think hidden positives) horses handled by less competent human connections. Quite often adding cutoffs for CXN Rating (CScore) will boost roi performance of a modelís overall results.

 

AGE of HORSE

Horses have shorter lifespans than humans. A horse is at age four is considered fully developed. In my own head I equate a four year old horse to a human adult in his or her own mid twenties. Just like human beings, horses lose speed and stamina as they get older. The chart below shows all starters in my calendar year 2006 database broken out by age of horse gap. Where the age gap is one or more years (an older horse facing one or more younger horses today) both win rate and flat bet win roi are decidedly lower. Conversely, horses facing off against competition their own age or older today have higher (think hidden positive) win rates and flat win bet roi than the set of all starters taken as a whole. This particular hidden positive may be a subtle thing, but my own experience has shown over and over that bringing Age of Horse into a UDM can often boost performance of the model.

 

†††† By: Age Of Horse Gap

 

†††† >=Min†††††† <Max††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct†† Impact

††††† -999††††††† -10††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†† 0.0000

†††††† -10†††††††† -9††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†† 0.0000

††††††† -9†††††††† -8††† -30.20†††† 58.00††† 0.4793††††† 3†††† 29†† .1034†† 0.8374

††††††† -8†††††††† -7†††† 21.80††† 256.00††† 1.0852†††† 15††† 128†† .1172†† 0.9486

††††††† -7†††††††† -6††† -46.10††† 770.00††† 0.9401†††† 53††† 385†† .1377†† 1.1143

††††††† -6†††††††† -5†† -672.10†† 2002.00††† 0.6643††† 116†† 1001†† .1159†† 0.9380

††††††† -5†††††††† -4-2189.80†† 6416.00††† 0.6587††† 355†† 3208†† .1107†† 0.8958

†††††† -4†††††††† -3-8981.7039724.00††† 0.7739†† 249219862†† .1255†† 1.0156

††††††† -3†††††††† -2 -22322.3098868.00††† 0.7742†† 630249434†† .1275†† 1.0319

††††††† -2†††††††† -1 -17887.9085940.00††† 0.7919†† 555442970†† .1293†† 1.0463

††††††† -1††††††††† 0 -17521.3072042.00††† 0.7568†† 433636021†† .1204†† 0.9744

†††††††† 0††††††††† 1 -19526.4082846.00††† 0.7643†† 493241423†† .1191†† 0.9638

†††††††† 1††††††††† 2-3565.3011216.00††† 0.6821††† 604†† 5608†† .1077†† 0.8718

†††††††† 2†††† †††††3-1444.40†† 3298.00††† 0.5620††† 178†† 1649†† .1079†† 0.8738

†††††††† 3††††††††† 4†† -404.90††† 888.00††† 0.5440†††† 44††† 444†† .0991†† 0.8022

†††††††† 4††††††††† 5†† -190.70††† 278.00††† 0.3140††††† 8††† 139†† .0576†† 0.4659

†††††††† 5††††††††† 6 †††-21.00†††† 58.00††† 0.6379††††† 4†††† 29†† .1379†† 1.1165

†††††††† 6††††††††† 7††† -16.00†††† 16.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 8†† .0000†† 0.0000

†††††††† 7††††††††† 8†††† -3.00††††† 8.00††† 0.6250††††† 1††††† 4†† .2500†† 2.0237

†††††††† 8†††† 999999††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†† 0.0000

 

 

†††† By: Age Of Horse Years

 

†††† Age Yrs†††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

†††††††††† 0†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††††††† 1††† †††0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††††††† 2-10134.5042086.00††† 0.7592†† 251721043†† .1196†††† 0.9682

†††††††††† 3-31169.80 138752.00††† 0.7754†† 868769376†† .1252†††† 1.0136

†††††††††† 4-24326.30 103422.00††0.7648†† 658151711†† .1273†††† 1.0302

†††††††††† 5-13302.5064588.00††† 0.7940†† 398832294†† .1235†††† 0.9996

†††††††††† 6†† -9126.4030038.00††† 0.6962†† 174615019†† .1163†††† 0.9410

†††††††††† 7†† -3246.6014730.00††† 0.7796††† 850†† 7365†† .1154†††† 0.9342

†††††††††† 8†† -2081.30†† 6852.00††† 0.6962††† 403†† 3426†† .1176†††† 0.9522

†††††††††† 9††† -614.20†† 2790.00††† 0.7799††† 168†† 1395†† .1204†††† 0.9748

††††††††† 10††† -574.10†† 1008.00††† 0.4305†††† 38††† 504†† .0754†††† 0.6103

††††††††† 11††† -126.60††† 198.00††† 0.3606††††† 6†††† 99†† .0606†††† 0.4906

††††††††† 12†††† -78.60††† 190.00††† 0.5863†††† 11†††† 95†† .1158†††† 0.9373

††††††††† 13†††† -20.40†††† 30.00††† 0.3200††††† 2†††† 15†† .1333†††† 1.0793

††††††††† 14†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

††††††††† 15†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

††††††††† 16†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

††††††††† 17†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

††††††††† 18†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

 

 

My coverage of hidden positives in this document is limited to only a handful of factors. It should be obvious to you that hidden positives exist to some degree of usefulness within the Data Window output numbers for almost every factor. Itís up to you to do your own research, discover those hidden positives, and bring them into your own models.

 

 

OBVIOUS POSITIVES

In this next section Iím going to cover a few obvious positives. These are attributes found in a horseís past performance record that the betting public frequently overreacts to. As such, when horses with these (and other) overly obvious positives in their past performance records are excluded from UDMs, or downgraded in UPR, the overall profitability of the model can be improved.

 

THE MORNING LINE

The morning line odds are set by a track employee known as the morning line oddsmaker. The morning line is not necessarily designed as an attempt to pick the winner of each race. Instead, the job of the morning line oddsmaker is often twofold: First, the morning line can be a prediction of how the public will bet the race. And second, it can be an attempt by the morning line oddsmaker to maximize betting on the race for the track. Nonetheless, many morning line oddsmakers are bright talented handicappers. At a lot of tracks the crowd reacts to the morning line in such a way as to cause it to drive the betting. My calendar year 2006 database shows that there is quite a bit of inherent predictability in the morning line odds. Nationally, the morning line favorite won approximately 31 percent of all races.

 

†††† By: Morning Line Rank

 

†††† Rank†††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi ††WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

††††††† 1-10705.0051096.00††† 0.7905†† 796325548†† .3117†††† 2.5230

††††††† 2†† -9762.1051474.00††† 0.8103†† 514025737†† .1997†††† 1.6166

††††††† 3-10119.2054976.00††† 0.8159†† 408227488†† .1485†††† 1.2021

††††††† 4-13038.5054920.00††† 0.7626†† 293327460†† .1068†††† 0.8646

††††††† 5-10115.1050654.00††† 0.8003†† 204525327†† .0807†††† 0.6536

††††††† 6-11783.4044698.00††† 0.7364†† 124722349†† .0558†††† 0.4517

††††††† 7†† -8563.3037392.00††† 0.7710††† 82818696†† .0443†††† 0.3585

††††††† 8†† -7812.1026848.00††† 0.7090††† 43513424†† .0324†††† 0.2623

††††††† 9†† -5815.8016902.00††† 0.6559††† 203†† 8451†† .0240†††† 0.1944

†††††† 10†† -3507.60†† 9406.00††† 0.6271†††† 84†† 4703†† .0179†††† 0.1446

†††††† 11†† -2728.60†† 4278.00††† 0.3622†††† 25†† 2139†† .0117†††† 0.0946

†††††† 12††† -468.60†† 1658.00††† 0.7174†††† 12††† 829†† .0145†††† 0.1172

†††††† 13††† -284.00††† 284.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††† 142†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††14†††† -86.00†††† 86.00††† 0.0000††††† 0†††† 43†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 15†††† -12.00†††† 12.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 6†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 16†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 17†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 18†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 19†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

 

Take a close look at the above chart. I want you to take specific notice of something. In 2006 morning line favorites had a lower flat bet win roi than both the second and third morning line choices. Thatís an indication that morning line favorites contain a lot of obvious positives in their past performance records - enough to attract a disproportionate amount of money from the betting public relative to their true chances of winning. At the same time, statistically, this phenomenon creates opportunity elsewhere in the pools. I will demonstrate later how you can use this to your advantage and actually strengthen the flat win bet roi of your UDMs.

 

 

FORMCYCLE

Another more subtle obvious positive can be found using JCapper FormCycle. The chart below shows horses with a FormCycle of one (have run a good race in each of their three most recent starts) actually have a lower flat bet win roi than horses with FormCycles of two or three (one bad race from among their three most recent starts.) I will demonstrate later how you can use this to your advantage and actually strengthen the flat win bet roi of your UDMs.

 

 

FormCycle

††† By: Form Cycle

 

††††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

0†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000Missing Info

1-17148.5078624.00††† 0.7819†† 694539312†† .1767†††† 1.4300GOOD†† GOOD††† GOOD

2†† -9048.2045972.00††† 0.8032†† 376922986†† .1640†††† 1.3273GOOD†† GOOD††† BAD

3†† -7363.5035378.00††† 0.7919†† 259517689†† .1467†††† 1.1875GOOD†† BAD†††† GOOD

4-12497.5045996.00††† 0.7283†† 300522998†† .1307†††† 1.0577GOOD†† BAD†††† BAD

5-11093.7040754.00††† 0.7278†† 233820377†† .1147†††† 0.9288BAD††† GOOD††† GOOD

6†† -6644.4031320.00††† 0.7879†† 158915660†† .1015†††† 0.8214BAD††† GOOD††† BAD

7†† -5889.4031300.00†† 0.8118†† 142815650†† .0912†††† 0.7386BAD††† BAD†††† GOOD

8-17660.6067538.00††† 0.7385†† 216833769†† .0642†††† 0.5197BAD††† BAD†††† BAD

9†† -7455.5027802.00††† 0.7318†† 116013901†† .0834†††† 0.6755FIRST TIME STARTER

 

 

 

 

LATE SPEED

Very early on my research into handicapping factors revealed that the betting public pays more attention to late speed than early speed. In the overwhelming majority of races blindly betting the top last line 2f pace call horse (with no further handicapping whatsoever) will yield a higher flat bet win roi than the same blind bet on the top last line late pace horse. This realization was the catalyst for me to think in terms of models or UDMs rather than in terms of individual handicapping factors. As soon as I began using factors in my UDMs that pointed to horses with hidden positives rather than obvious positives, I noticed an immediate improvement in my own results at the windows.

 

†††† By: Late Pace Rank (Last Start)

 

†††† Rank†††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

††††††† 1†† -9842.7054818.00††† 0.8204†† 509427409†† .1859†††† 1.5044

††††††† 2-11574.6052322.00††† 0.7788†† 411626161†† .1573†††† 1.2736

††††††† 3-11369.9051398.00††† 0.7788†† 360325699†† .1402†††† 1.1349

††††††† 4-11835.0050860.00††† 0.7673†† 323725430†† .1273†††† 1.0304

††††††† 5-12380.7049268.00††† 0.7487†† 273224634†† .1109†††† 0.8977

††††††† 6-11370.6045096.00††† 0.7479†† 230322548†† .1021†††† 0.8268

††††††† 7-10340.3036798.00††† 0.7190†† 166018399†† .0902†††† 0.7303

††††††† 8†† -7274.3026998.00††† 0.7306†† 104013499†† .0770†††† 0.6236

††††††† 9†† -4719.9017698.00††† 0.7333††† 611†† 8849†† .0690†††† 0.5589

†††††† 10†† -1669.0010958.00††† 0.8477††† 363†† 5479†† .0663†††† 0.5363

†††††† 11†† -1629.20†† 5164.00††† 0.6845††† 147†† 2582†† .0569†††† 0.4608

†††††† 12††† -355.60†† 2472.00††† 0.8561†††† 75†† 1236†† .0607†††† 0.4912

†††††† 13††† -253.50††† 554.00††† 0.5424†††† 14††† 277†† .0505†††† 0.4091

††††† 14††† -156.80††† 244.00††† 0.3574††††† 1††† 122†† .0082†††† 0.0663

†††††† 15†††† -16.00†††† 16.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 8†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 16††††† -7.20†††† 14.00††† 0.4857††††† 1††††† 7†† .1429†††† 1.1564

†††††† 17†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 18††††† -4.00††††† 4.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 2†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 19††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†† .0000†††† 0.0000

 

 

By: 73†† rankForPaceFig_2F_InLast

 

†††† Rank†††††† Gain†††† ††Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

††††††† 1†† -7205.3056844.00††† 0.8732†† 532428422†† .1873†††† 1.5163

††††††† 2-10410.7052914.00††† 0.8033†† 409626457†† .1548†††† 1.2532

††††††† 3-11074.7051246.00††† 0.7839†† 353425623.1379†††† 1.1164

††††††† 4-11756.9050578.00††† 0.7675†† 317825289†† .1257†††† 1.0172

††††††† 5-14332.7048990.00††† 0.7074†† 266424495†† .1088†††† 0.8803

††††††† 6-11134.9044726.00††† 0.7510†† 229322363†† .1025†††† 0.8300

††††††† 7-10875.1036390.00††† 0.7012†† 164118195†† .0902†††† 0.7301

††††††† 8†† -7821.7026544.00††† 0.7053†† 106013272†† .0799†††† 0.6465

††††††† 9†† -4975.5017432.00††† 0.7146††† 638†† 8716†† .0732†††† 0.5925

†††††† 10†† -3029.3010772.00††† 0.7188††† 345†† 5386†† .0641†††† 0.5185

†††††† 11†† -1570.90†† 5152.00††† 0.6951††† 149†† 2576†† .0578†††† 0.4682

†††††† 12††† -432.00†† 2354.00††† 0.8165†††† 59†† 1177†† .0501†††† 0.4058

†††††† 13††††† 30.20††† 510.00††† 1.0592†††† 14††† 255†† .0549†††0.4444

†††††† 14††† -199.80††† 220.00††† 0.0918††††† 2††† 110†† .0182†††† 0.1472

†††††† 15††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 16††††† -4.00††††† 4.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 2†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 17†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 18††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 19+†††† -4.00††††† 4.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 2†† .0000†††† 0.0000

 

 

 

CONNECTIONS

Another subtle obvious positive exists when horses are ranked first in CXN Rating or CScore. Take a look at the chart presented below. Horses ranked second in CXN Rating actually have a higher flat bet win roi than horses ranked first. During UDM development, once the point has been reached where the UDM is doing a good job of selecting horses with hidden positives, adding a requirement that CXN Rating or CScore min rank be greater than or equal to two (using the CSCORERKMIN02 Preset Filter) can often provide a surprising boost in win bet roi.

 

†††† By: CXN Rating Rank

 

†††† Rank†††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

††††††† 1†† -8714.4050528.00††† 0.8275†† 585525264†† .2318†††† 1.8760

††††††† 2†† -8335.0049780.00††† 0.8326†† 459724890†† .1847†††† 1.4950

††††††† 3†† -9385.0049630.00††† 0.8109†† 373124815†† .1504†††† 1.2171

††††††† 4-11057.6049600.00††† 0.7771†† 314624800†† .1269†††† 1.0268

††††††† 5-11914.3049056.00††† 0.7571†† 255624528†† .1042†††† 0.8435

††††††† 6-13002.1046032.00††† 0.7175†† 189023016†† .0821†††† 0.6647

††††††† 7-11698.8038412.00††† 0.6954†† 135319206†† .0704†††† 0.5702

††††††† 8†† -7099.8028668.00††† 0.7523††† 88314334†† .0616†††† 0.4986

††††††† 9†† -6162.6019860.00††† 0.6897††† 491†† 9930†† .0494†††† 0.4002

†††††† 10†† -4459.6012756.00††† 0.6504††† 310†† 6378†† .0486†††† 0.3934

†††††† 11†† -1344.80†† 6570.00††† 0.7953††† 131†† 3285†† .0399†††† 0.3228

†††††† 12†† -1513.40†† 3064.00††† 0.5061†††† 43†† 1532†† .0281†††† 0.2272

†† ††††13††† -151.10††† 564.00††† 0.7321††††† 6††† 282†† .0213†††† 0.1722

†††††† 14††††† 35.00††† 152.00††† 1.2303††††† 4†††† 76†† .0526†††† 0.4260

†††††† 15††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 16††††† -2.00††††† 2.00 †††0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 17††††† 12.20††††† 2.00††† 7.1000††††† 1††††† 11.0000†††† 8.0947

†††††† 18††††† -6.00††††† 6.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 3†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 19†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

 

 

 

My coverage of specific factors containing obvious positives (which are almost always over bet) ends here. Understand that I have only covered a very limited number of factors. Without question there are many other factors not covered in this document that contain obvious positives when looked at in the Data Window. Again, your job as a JCapper user/horseplayer is to do your own research and bring those factors into your own models in such a way as to strengthen your overall results.

 

VALUE

JCapper contains many factors that will enable you to reach out and ďgrabĒ the concept of value and bring it into your UDMs. Later, after we develop a UDM that contains Hidden Positives and avoids common Obvious Positives, Iíll show you actual Data Window output where results for that UDM are broken out by some of the value based factors in JCapper such as PScore, Race Volatility, Field Size, JPROfMLFAV1, and Odds Line Ratios such as OR3, MLOR3, and MLOR4. Once youíve developed a model that contains a good mix of hidden positives while at the same time avoids obvious positives Ė quite often all that is required to move your UDM from negative into positive territory is the addition of one or more value based factors.

 

 

COMPREHENSIVE POWER RATINGS

When I developed the original JRating I discovered that I could create a rating with a flat bet win roi that was superior to other commercially available power ratings. I got a lot of emails from horseplayers (and other software developers too) wondering how I was able to accomplish this. Looking back it wasnít hard to do this at all. I simply used factors that involve hidden positives. I discovered I could strengthen the rating even further by lowering the weightings of certain factors involving obvious positives. JCapper contains a number of comprehensive power ratings: Alchemy, JPR, JPRClass, JRating (in the original program only), Prime Power, QRating, PRating, and UPR. All of these are examples of comprehensive power ratings. Depending on the specific situation being addressed, each can be used to good effect when creating UDMs. But in the interest of keeping things simple, in this document, I will specifically focus on using the hidden positives built into JPR to illustrate the process of creating a Positive Expectation UDM as the basis of finding an edge.

 

JPR

†††† By: JPR Rank

 

†††† Rank†††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

††††††† 1†† -4201.9049656.00††† 0.9154†† 740124828†† .2981†††† 2.4129

††††††† 2†† -7015.8049658.00††† 0.8587†† 498224829†† .2007†††† 1.6242

††††††† 3†† -8186.0049658.00††† 0.8352†† 367624829†† .1481†††† 1.1984

††††††† 4†† -9533.1049604.00††† 0.8078†† 278124802†† .1121†††† 0.9076

††††††† 5-12419.2048986.00††† 0.7465†† 215024493†† .0878†††0.7105

††††††† 6-13247.3045970.00††† 0.7118†† 156922985†† .0683†††† 0.5526

††††††† 7-12498.1038410.00††† 0.6746†† 107819205†† .0561†††† 0.4544

††††††† 8-11488.9028770.00††† 0.6007††† 64114385†† .0446†††† 0.3607

††††††† 9†† -6677.7019828.00††† 0.6632††† 372†† 9914†† .0375†††† 0.3037

†††††† 10†† -4872.7012810.00††† 0.6196††† 212†† 6405†† .0331†††† 0.2679

†††††† 11†† -2885.10†† 6718.00††† 0.5705†††† 86†† 3359†† .0256†††† 0.2072

†††††† 12†† -1497.70†† 3646.00††† 0.5892 ††††41†† 1823†† .0225†††† 0.1821

†††††† 13†††††† 9.80††† 642.00††† 1.0153††††† 7††† 321†† .0218†††† 0.1765

†††††† 14††† -275.60††† 316.00††† 0.1278††††† 1††† 158†† .0063†††† 0.0512

†††††† 15††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 16††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 17††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 18††††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 19††††† -4.00 †††††4.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 2†† .0000†††† 0.0000

 

 

 

Track Surfaces Update (8/1/2007)

This section (shown in red font) should serve to both enlighten and warn the user-player about important differences between track surfaces from one track to another and changes in the nature of the game starting in 2007.

 

Back in 2001, when I first started wrapping my head around taking concepts like track weight and speed and shaping models into the JRating algorithm, PolyTrack didn't exist. All dirt tracks (taken as a whole) seemed to share one common trait: Horses with early speed enjoyed a distinct advantage over horses without it.

 

As a result I was able to create one JRating algorithm for dirt and another for turf. I then applied these two algorithms to all tracks everywhere. For the past several years that approach has let me (and many other JCapper users) enjoy almost universal success simply by playing JRating rank = 1 horses under a wide variety of circumstances.

 

When I set about developing JPR in early 2005 I used very similar thinking to what I did when I created the JRating. I created one JPR algorithm for dirt and a second algorithm for turf. And it worked pretty much everywhere I wanted to play.

 

The advent of PolyTrack changes that. It plays differently than plain old dirt. Horses running on or near the lead on PolyTrack no longer have an advantage over their rivals. Instead, horses with early speed on PolyTrack, unless they are in a race with little or no pace pressure, are at a disadvantage. I am convinced that poly is different enough that it deserves treatment as a separate surface.

 

As I write this (8/1/2007) horses are now racing on artificial surfaces at the following Bris track codes: APX-DMR-HOL-OSA-PID-SAX-TPX-WOX. PolyTrack has become prevalent enough throughout racing that including it in overall Data Window results actually skews those results.

 

We can argue about reasons both for and against PolyTrack until we are blue in the face. But the simple truth is this: It is now part of the game. There is a belief among horsemen that artificial surfaces are safer for horses to race on. Wait. It gets better. I have seen track management at some tracks have their maintenance crews change dirt surfaces that have historically favored early speed into deeper more tiring surfaces that favor closers.

 

In my opinion the game is currently undergoing a landscape change.

 

Universal data samples of the type used as a basis for creating the My-Edge UDM in the next section of this document need to be examined more closely. I have come to believe that UDMs and UPR should really be modeled on a track by track basis.

 

Now, here is my word of warning: The UDM I am showing you in the next section of this document is based on a wide data sample across all distances and surfaces. That data sample was taken at the end of 2006. That sample may not be representative of track surfaces as they exist when you download race card files in 2007 and beyond. My real world experience shows that the My-Edge UDM outlined in this document works very well on speed favoring surfaces. My experience also tells me that the UDM does not work on speed tiring surfaces. It is not my intention to lead you in any way to think the specific universal UDM outlined in this document and based on 2006 data will somehow magically work across any and all track surfaces found in years 2007 and beyond. Rather it is my intention to always get you in the habit of thinking on your own Ė and testing your UDMs and UPR using data that is track specific.

 

For that reason I must warn you that any UDMs or UPR you develop as a result of this document should be tested using data that is track specific for any tracks you actually plan on playing.

 

But donít let that deter you. At the very least the following section will show you the exact concepts, thought processes, and procedures I use myself when developing UDMs and UPR for successful live play.

 

 

 

 

CREATING POSITIVE EXPECTATION UDMs TO YIELD AN EDGE

In this next section I am going to present a step by step tutorial where I create a Positive Expectation UDM to yield an edge. While the example UDM I am about to present provides the beginning player an edge Ė please donít limit yourself to using only what I present here. If you do you will really be missing out. Understand going in that what I am about to present Ė even though it provides the beginning player an edge Ė really only scratches the surface of what is possible. Feel free to use your own ingenuity and creativity when creating UDMs and UPR. JCapper2007 is a very robust program. The number of conditionals you can add to a UDM like this one (or one of your own) is limited only by your own imagination.

 

GENERAL FRAMEWORK for MODEL DEVELOPMENT

Whenever I create a new UDM (or UPR) I like to start out by focusing on getting my model to include horses with hidden positives. Once the model is doing a pretty good job of selecting horses with hidden positives Iíll then shift my focus to having the model avoid horses with obvious positives. Once I feel the model is doing a good job of selecting horses with hidden positives while at the same time avoiding horses with obvious positives, Iíll then shift my focus towards bringing value based factors into my model. Once I have a model that performs well after bringing in one or more value based factors, then Iíll shift my focus to testing that model against a validation database that contains races not included in the database used to develop the model. If the model performs well against the validation database then Iíll consider integrating the model into my own live play.

 

I know from experience that not every factor (or combination of factors) can be modeled successfully to perform well going forward at the windows. In fact very few of them can. But my own experience tells me that when I apply this general framework of model development around good factors Ė more often than not I get a model that performs well going forward Ė a model that I can use in my own live play if I want to. Further, my experience also tells me that models developed in a haphazard manner outside of this general framework - those are the models that frequently fall apart going forward.

 

My advice, if you want it, would be to give this general framework a try whenever you develop models of your own. Stick to this general framework until your own experience grows to the point to where you start to develop a general framework for model development of your own.

 

 

The MY-EDGE UDM

Before attempting this tutorial you should already have a solid understanding of how to use the UDM Wizard to create simple basic UDMs. If you havenít already done so, listen to the Simple Basic UDMs Podcast while working with the UDM Wizard to create a handful of basic UDMs. You should also become familiar with both the Preset and Dynamic Filter Tools. Once you are comfortable adding and editing UDM factor constraints to UDMs then and only then are you probably ready for something a little more advanced like this tutorial.

 

STEP1

Letís start out by focusing on hidden positives. In the UDM Wizard, create a new UDM named MY-EDGE. Set JPR min and max rank equal to 1. Then run the UDM through the Data Window broken out by the CANTRUN/XFORM Attribute. Actual Data Window results using my own calendar year 2006 database are shown below:

 

††††† UDM Definition:†† MY-EDGE

†††† Divisor:††††††††† # UDM DefDivisor: 999

†††† Surface Req:††††† *ANY Surface*

†††† Distance Req:†††† *ANY Distance*

 

†††† JPR:††††††††††††† MinRank= 1MaxRank= 1††

†††††††††††††††††††††† MinVal= -999MaxVal= 999††

†††††††††††††††††††††† MinGap= -999MaxGap= 999

†††† Running Style:††† ALL

 

 

†††† Data Window Settings:

†††† Divisor = 999†††

†††† Filters Applied: -

 

†††† Surface: (ALL*)Distance: (All*) (From Index File: D:\2007\Q1_2007\pl_JPR_1_06.txt)

 

 

†††† Data Summary†††††††† Win†††† Place††††† Show

†††† Mutuel Totals†† 45454.1045973.4044528.60

†††† Bet††††††††††† -49656.00 -49656.00 -49656.00

†††† Gain††††††††††† -4201.90-3682.60-5127.40

 

†††† Wins††††††††††††††† 7401†††† 12313†††† 15355

†††† Plays††††††††††††† 24828†††† 24828†††† 24828

†††† PCT††††††††††††††† .2981†††† .4959†††† .6185

 

†††† ROI†††††††††††††† 0.9154††† 0.9258††† 0.8967

†††† Avg Mut†††††††††††† 6.14††††† 3.73††††† 2.90

 

 

†††† By: CANTRUN/XFORM Attribute

 

†††† CANTRUN†††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

†††††††††† 0†† -1982.6032502.00††† 0.9390†† 485116251†† .2985†††1.0014Clean Horse

†††††††††† 1†† -2212.9017136.00††† 0.8709†† 2548†† 8568†† .2974†††† 0.9976XFORM

†††††††††† 2††††† -6.40†††† 18.00††† 0.6444††††† 2††††† 9†† .2222†††† 0.7455CANTRUN

 

†††††††††

The above results indicate that CLEAN horses contain the trainer intent hidden positives we seek. By eliminating XFORM and CANTRUN horses we will improve our overall results.

 

STEP 2

Using the Preset Filter Tool, add the CLEAN Preset Filter to the UDM Definition. The run the UDM through the Data Window broken out by BESTE2 Gap:

 

†††† UDM Definition:†† MY-EDGE

†††† Divisor:††††††††† # UDM DefDivisor: 999

†††† Surface Req:††††† *ANY Surface*

†††† Distance Req:†††† *ANY Distance*

 

†††† JPR:††††††††††††† MinRank= 1MaxRank= 1††

†††††††††††††††††††††† MinVal= -999MaxVal= 999††

†††††††††††††††††††††† MinGap= -999MaxGap= 999

†††† Running Style:††† ALL

 

 

†††† Data Window Settings:

†††† Divisor = 999†††

†††† Filters Applied: CLEAN-

 

†††† Surface: (ALL*)Distance: (All*) (From Index File: D:\2007\Q1_2007\pl_JPR_1_06.txt)

 

 

†††† Data Summary†††††††† Win†††† Place††††† Show

†††† Mutuel Totals†† 30519.4030633.2029418.70

†††† Bet††††††††††† -32502.00 -32502.00 -32502.00

†††† Gain††††††††††† -1982.60-1868.80-3083.30

 

†††† Wins††††††††††††††† 4851††††† 8001††††† 9984

†††† Plays††††††††††††† 16251†††† 16251†††† 16251

†††† PCT††††††††††††††† .2985†††† .4923†††† .6144

 

†††† ROI†††††††††††††† 0.9390††† 0.9425††† 0.9051

†††† Avg Mut†††††††††††† 6.29††††† 3.83††††† 2.95

 

 

†††† By: Best E2 Gap

 

†††† >=Min†††††† <Max††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct†† Impact

††† -999.00†††† -15.00††† 158.80†† 2176.00††† 1.0730††† 320†† 1088†† .2941†† 0.9853

†††† -15.00†††† -14.00†† -109.90††† 372.00††† 0.7046†††† 47††† 186†† .25270.8465

†††† -14.00†††† -13.00††† -56.00††† 426.00††† 0.8685†††† 62††† 213†† .2911†† 0.9751

†††† -13.00†††† -12.00††† -86.40††† 560.00††† 0.8457†††† 77††† 280†† .2750†† 0.9213

†††† -12.00†††† -11.00†††† 10.20††† 500.00††† 1.0204†††† 69††† 250†† .2760†† 0.9246

†††† -11.00†††† -10.00††† -40.60††† 684.00††† 0.9406†††† 92††† 342†† .2690†† 0.9012

†††† -10.00††††† -9.00†† -101.40††† 838.00††† 0.8790††† 109††† 419†† .2601†† 0.8715

††††† -9.00††††† -8.00†† -183.60††† 928.00††† 0.8022††† 122††† 464†† .2629†† 0.8808

††††† -8.00††††† -7.00††† -74.30†† 1064.00††† 0.9302††† 156††† 532†† .2932†† 0.9823

††††† -7.00††††† -6.00††† -67.60†† 1206.00††† 0.9439††† 181††† 603†† .3002†† 1.0056

††††† -6.00††††† -5.00††† -60.00†† 1414.00††† 0.9576††† 194††† 707†† .2744†† 0.9192

††† ††-5.00††††† -4.00††† -81.10†† 1390.00††† 0.9417††† 205††† 695†† .2950†† 0.9881

††††† -4.00††††† -3.00†† -106.30†† 1662.00††† 0.9360††† 231††† 831†† .2780†† 0.9312

††††† -3.00††††† -2.00†† -252.80†† 1760.00††† 0.8564††† 245††† 880†† .2784†† 0.9327

††††† -2.00††††† -1.00†† -310.40†† 1732.00††† 0.8208††† 239††† 866†† .2760†† 0.9245

††††† -1.00†††††† 0.00†††† 17.00†† 1664.00††† 1.0102††† 266††† 832†† .3197†† 1.0710

†††††† 0.00†††††† 1.00††† -39.70†† 2360.00††† 0.9832††† 366†† 1180†† .3102†† 1.0391

†††††† 1.00 ††††††2.00†† -194.60†† 1712.00††† 0.8863††† 251††† 856†† .2932†† 0.9823

†††††† 2.00†††††† 3.00††† -42.10†† 1584.00††† 0.9734††† 251††† 792†† .3169†† 1.0617

†††††† 3.00999999.00†† -361.80†† 8470.00††† 0.9573†† 1368†† 4235†† .3230†† 1.0821

 

 

The above results show that horses within 8 points of the BestE2 in the race contain the early speed hidden positives we seek. Eliminating horses not within 8 points of the race top for BestE2 will improve overall results.

 

STEP 3

Set min gap for BestE2 to -8 and run the UDM through the Data Window broken out by Recent Activity Days Last Start:

 

††††††† UDM Definition:†† MY-EDGE

†††† Divisor:††††††††† # UDM DefDivisor: 999

†††† Surface Req:††††† *ANY Surface*

†††† Distance Req:†††† *ANY Distance*

 

†††† BestE2:†††††††† ††MinRank= -999MaxRank= 999††

†††††††††††††††††††††† MinVal= -999MaxVal= 999††

†††††††††††††††††††††† MinGap= -8MaxGap= 999

†††† JPR:††††††††††††† MinRank= 1MaxRank= 1††

†††††††††††††††††††††† MinVal= -999MaxVal= 999††

†††††††††††††††††††††† MinGap= -999MaxGap= 999

†††† Running Style:††† ALL

 

 

†††† Data Window Settings:

†††† Divisor = 999†††

†††† Filters Applied: CLEAN-

 

†††† Surface: (ALL*)Distance: (All*) (From Index File: D:\2007\Q1_2007\pl_JPR_1_06.txt)

 

 

†††† Data Summary†††††††† Win†††† Place††††† Show

†††† Mutuel Totals†† 24444.3024196.9023601.10

†††† Bet††††††††††† -26018.00 -26018.00 -26018.00

†††† Gain††††††††††† -1573.70-1821.10-2416.90

 

†††† Wins††††††††††††††† 3953††††† 6485††††† 8048

†††† Plays††††††††††††† 13009†††† 13009†††† 13009

†††† PCT††††††††††††††† .3039†††† .4985†††† .6186

 

†††† ROI†††††††††††††† 0.9395††† 0.9300††† 0.9071

†††† Avg Mut†††††††††††† 6.18††††† 3.73††††† 2.93

 

 

†††† By: Recent Activity- Days Last Start

 

†††† >=Min†††††† <Max††††† Gain†††††† Bet†† ††††Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct†† Impact

††††† -999††††††††† 0††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†† 0.0000

†††††††† 0††††††††† 5†††† -6.00†††† 12.00††† 0.5000††††† 1††††† 6†† .1667†† 0.5485

†††††††† 5†††††††† 10†† -159.60††† 612.00††† 0.7392†††† 84††† 306†† .2745†† 0.9034

††††††† 10†††††††† 15††† -48.10†† 1936.00††† 0.9752††† 279††† 968†† .2882†† 0.9485

††††††† 15†††††††† 20††† -29.00†† 2466.00††† 0.9882††† 367†† 1233†† .2976†† 0.9795

††††††† 20†††††††† 25†† -386.70†† 4422.00††† 0.9126††† 656†† 2211†† .2967†† 0.9764

††††††† 25†††††††† 30†† -339.40†† 4216.00††† 0.9195††† 645†† 2108†† .3060†† 1.0069

††††††† 30†††††††† 35†† -297.60†† 2678.00††† 0.8889††† 405†† 1339†† .3025†† 0.9954

††††††† 35†††††††† 40††† -85.80†† 2338.00††† 0.9633††† 388†† 1169†† .3319†† 1.0923

††††††† 40†††††††† 45†††† 88.80†† 1762.00††† 1.0504††† 312††† 881†† .3541†† 1.1655

††††††† 45†††††††† 50††† 100.40†† 1016.00††† 1.0988††† 160††† 508†† .3150†† 1.0365

††††††† 50†††††††† 55††† -10.30††† 592.00††† 0.9826†††† 87††† 296†† .2939†† 0.9673

††††††† 55†††††††† 60††† 108.00††† 614.00††† 1.1759††† 104††† 307†† .3388†† 1.1148

††††††† 60†††††††† 65††† -71.10††† 416.00††† 0.8291†††† 59††† 208†† .2837†† 0.9335

††††††† 65†††††††† 70††† -16.10††† 256.00††† 0.9371†††† 40††† 128†† .3125†† 1.0284

††††††† 70†††††††† 75††††† 7.20††† 258.00††† 1.0279†††† 41††† 129†† .3178†† 1.0460

††††††† 75†††††††† 80††† -94.00††† 260.00††† 0.6385†††† 28††† 130†† .2154†† 0.7088

††††††† 80†††††††† 85†††† 52.30††† 184.00††† 1.2842†††† 36†††† 92†† .3913†† 1.2878

†† †††††85†††††††† 90††† -35.10††† 110.00††† 0.6809†††† 11†††† 55†† .2000†† 0.6582

††††††† 90†††† 999999†† -351.60†† 1870.00††† 0.8120††† 250††† 935†† .2674†† 0.8799

 

The above results show that horses with a most recent start between 10 and 59 days of todayís race date contain desired form based hidden positives. Eliminating the others will have the effect of improving overall results.

 

At this point the UDM itself is already doing a pretty good job of selecting horses with hidden positives. For illustrative purposes, in the next step I will shift focus away from finding hidden positives and move on to avoiding horses with obvious positives. However, feel free on your own to tune this (or any other) UDM as you see fit by testing and using any and all factors that might point out horses with hidden positives.

 

STEP 4

Set Rec Activity Days Last Start min val=10 and max val=59 and then run the UDM through the Data Window broken out by some of the factors that commonly point out obvious positives:

 

.

††††††† UDM Definition:†† MY-EDGE

†††† Divisor:††††††††† # UDM DefDivisor: 999

†††† Surface Req:††††† *ANY Surface*

†††† Distance Req:†††† *ANY Distance*

 

†††† BestE2:†††††††††† MinRank= -999MaxRank= 999††

†††††††††††††††††††††† MinVal= -999MaxVal= 999††

††††† †††††††††††††††††MinGap= -8MaxGap= 999

 

†††† Days Last Start:MinVal= 10MaxVal= 59

 

†††† JPR:††††††††††††† MinRank= 1MaxRank= 1††

†††††††††††††††††††††† MinVal= -999MaxVal= 999††

†††††††††††††††††††††† MinGap= -999MaxGap= 999

†††† Running Style:††† ALL

 

 

†††† Data Window Settings:

†††† Divisor = 999†††

†††† Filters Applied: CLEAN-

 

†††† Surface: (ALL*)Distance: (All*) (From Index File: D:\2007\Q1_2007\pl_JPR_1_06.txt)

 

 

†††† Data Summary†††††††† Win†††† Place††††† Show

†††† Mutuel Totals†† 21140.3020782.6020185.40

†††† Bet††††††††††† -22040.00 -22040.00 -22040.00

†††† Gain†††††††††††† -899.70-1257.40-1854.60

 

†††† Wins††††††††††††††† 3403††††† 5586††††† 6908

†††† Plays††††††††††††† 11020†††† 11020†††† 11020

†††† PCT††††††††††††††† .3088†††† .5069†††† .6269

 

†††† ROI†††††††††††††† 0.9592††† 0.9429††† 0.9159

†††† Avg Mut†††††††††††† 6.21††††† 3.72††††† 2.92

 

 

 

††††††††† By: Form Cycle

 

†††† FC††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† PctImpact

††††† 0††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .00000.0000Missing Info

††††† 1 -780.30†† 7218.00††† 0.8919†† 1161†† 3609†† .32171.0418GOOD GOOD GOOD

††††† 2 -166.40†† 3684.00††† 0.9548††† 621†† 1842†† .33711.0917GOOD GOOD BAD

††††† 3†† 52.60†† 2462.00††† 1.0214††† 392†† 1231†† .31841.0312GOOD BADGOOD

††††† 4 -236.10†† 3044.00††† 0.9224††† 467†† 1522†† .30680.9936GOOD BADBAD

††††† 5†† 94.10†† 2006.00††† 1.0469††† 308†† 1003†† .30710.9944BADGOOD GOOD

††††† 6†† 20.20†† 1274.00††† 1.0159††† 173††† 637†† .27160.8795BADGOOD BAD

††††† 7235.00†† 1080.00††† 1.2176††† 144††† 540†† .26670.8636BADBADGOOD

††††† 8 -118.80†† 1272.00††† 0.9066††† 137††† 636†† .21540.6976BADBADBAD

††††† 9††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .00000.0000FIRST TIME STARTER

 

 

 

 

†††† By: Morning Line Rank

 

†††† Rank†††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

††††††† 1†† -1442.2010612.00††† 0.8641†† 2040†† 5306†† .3845†††† 1.2450

††††††† 2††† -202.00†† 4696.00††† 0.9570††† 680†† 2348.2896†††† 0.9378

††††††† 3††††† 96.50†† 2722.00††† 1.0355††† 329†† 1361†† .2417†††† 0.7828

††††††† 4†††† 130.10†† 1688.00††† 1.0771††† 164††† 844†† .1943†††† 0.6292

††††††† 5†††† 229.00†† 1080.00††† 1.2120††† 105††† 540†† .1944†††† 0.6297

††††††† 6†††† 245.80††† 594.00††† 1.4138†††† 49††† 297†† .1650†††† 0.5343

††††††† 7†††† -13.40††† 354.00††† 0.9621†††† 18††† 177†† .1017†††† 0.3293

††††††† 8†††† 110.70††† 180.00††† 1.6150†††† 14†††† 90†† .1556†††† 0.5037

††††††† 9†††† -61.80†††† 70.00††† 0.1171††††† 1†††† 35†† .0286†††† 0.0925

†††††† 10†††††† 3.60†††† 30.00††† 1.1200††††† 2†††† 15†† .1333†††† 0.4318

†††††† 11†††††† 4.00†††† 14.00††† 1.2857††††† 1††††† 7†† .1429†††† 0.4626

 

 

 

 

†††† By: CXN Rating Rank

 

†††† Rank†††††† Gain†††††† Bet††† †††Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

††††††† 1††† -542.00†† 5190.00††† 0.8956††† 992†† 2595†† .3823†††† 1.2379

††† ††††2††† -216.00†† 4102.00††† 0.9473††† 702†† 2051†† .3423†††† 1.1084

††††††† 3†††† 219.00†† 3580.00††† 1.0612††† 563†† 1790†† .3145†† ††1.0185

††††††† 4††† -242.70†† 2846.00††† 0.9147††† 408†† 1423†† .2867†††† 0.9285

††††††† 5††††† 47.90†† 2252.00††† 1.0213††† 308†† 1126†† .2735†††† 0.8858

††††††† 6††† -265.80†† 1622.00††† 0.8361††† 184††† 811†† .2269†††† 0.7347

††††††† 7††††† 11.90†† 1036.00††† 1.0115††† 112††† 518†† .2162†††† 0.7002

††††††† 8††††† 42.80††† 708.00††† 1.0605†††† 65††† 354†† .1836†††† 0.5946

††††††† 9††††† 12.00††† 370.00††† 1.0324†††† 39††† 185†† .2108†††† 0.6827

†††††† 10†††† -24.60††† 188.00††† 0.8691†††† 14†††† 94†† .1489†††† 0.4823

†††††† 11††††† 39.00†††† 94.00††† 1.4149†††† 10†††† 47†† .2128†††† 0.6890

†††††† 12††††† 30.80†††† 40.00††† 1.7700††††† 6†††† 20†† .3000†††† 0.9715

†††††† 13††††† -8.00††††† 8.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 4†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 14††††† -4.00††††† 4.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 2†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 15†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 16†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 17†††††† 0.00†††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 18†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††† 19†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

STEP 5

Eliminate horses with obvious positives in their records. Use the Preset Filter Tool to set min rank for FormCycle to 2. Use the Dynamic Filter Tool to set Morning Line min rank to 2 (and possibly max rank to 8.)

 

For illustrative purposes the only factor constraints I set related to Obvious Positives were FormCycle Min Val (FCYCLEMIN02) and Morning Line Rank ([ALL[MIN2.) I purposely didnít set a constraint for CXN Rating (CScore) because overlap exists between Morning Line Rank=1 and CXN Rating (CScore) Rank=1 horses. However, feel free to experiment on your own. Set constraints for any and all factors where your own Data Window output indicates that obvious positives exist and then run your UDM through the Data Window and look at your own results.

 

After setting constraints for Obvious Positives then run the UDM through the Data Window broken out by several factors that represent value:

 

 

†††† UDM Definition:†† MY-EDGE

†††† Divisor:††††††††† # UDM DefDivisor: 999

†††† Surface Req:††††† *ANY Surface*

†††† Distance Req:†††† *ANY Distance*

 

†† ††BestE2:†††††††††† MinRank= -999MaxRank= 999††

†††††††††††††††††††††† MinVal= -999MaxVal= 999††

†††††††††††††††††††††† MinGap= -8MaxGap= 999

 

†††† Days Last Start:MinVal= 10MaxVal= 59

 

†††† JPR:††††††††††††† MinRank= 1MaxRank= 1††

†††††††† ††††††††††††††MinVal= -999MaxVal= 999††

†††††††††††††††††††††† MinGap= -999MaxGap= 999

 

†††† Running Style:††† ALL

 

 

†††† Data Window Settings:

†††† Divisor = 999†††

†††† Filters Applied: CLEAN-FCYCLEMIN02-[ALL[MIN2-

 

†††† Surface: (ALL*)Distance: (All*) (From Index File: D:\2007\Q1_2007\pl_JPR_1_06.txt)

 

 

†††† Data Summary†††††††† Win†††† Place††††† Show

†††† Mutuel Totals††† 8778.30†† 8052.30†† 7717.30

†††† Bet†††††††††††† -8196.00-8196.00-8196.00

†††† Gain††††††††††††† 582.30†† -143.70†† -478.70

 

†††† Wins†††††††††††††††† 955††††† 1664††††† 2192

†††† Plays†††††††††††††† 4098††††† 4098††††† 4098

†††† PCT††††††††††††††† .2330†††† .4061†††† .5349

 

†††† ROI†††††††††††††† 1.0710††† 0.9825††† 0.9416

†††† Avg Mut†††††††††††† 9.19††††† 4.84††††† 3.52

 

 

 

†††† By: JPROfMLFav1

 

†††† >=Min†††††† <Max††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct†† Impact

†† -999.00††††† 15.00††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†† 0.0000

†††† 15.00††††† 20.00††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†† 0.0000

†††† 20.00††††† 25.00††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†† 0.0000

†††† 25.00††††† 30.00††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†† 0.0000

†††† 30.00††††† 35.00††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†† 0.0000

†††† 35.00††††† 40.00†††† -2.00†††† 46.00††† 0.9565††††† 3†††† 23†† .1304†† 0.5597

†††† 40.00††††† 45.00††† -26.80††† 138.00††† 0.8058†††† 14†††† 69†† .2029†† 0.8707

†††† 45.00††††† 50.00††† -14.80††† 274.00††† 0.9460†††† 24††† 137†† .1752†† 0.7517

†††† 50.00††††† 55.00†††† 74.90††† 678.00††† 1.1105†††† 78††† 339†† .2301†† 0.9873

†††† 55.00††††† 60.00††† 109.10†† 1388.00††† 1.0786††† 150††† 694†† .2161†† 0.9275

†††† 60.00††††† 65.00††† 270.10†† 2072.00††† 1.1304††† 262†† 1036†† .2529†† 1.0852

†† ††65.00††††† 70.00††† 235.00†† 2072.00††† 1.1134††† 242†† 1036†† .2336†† 1.0024

†††† 70.00††††† 75.00††† -34.80†† 1232.00††† 0.9718††† 146††† 616†† .2370†† 1.0170

†††† 75.00††††† 80.00††† -26.20††† 288.00††† 0.9090†††† 35††† 144†† .2431†† 1.0430

†††† 80.00††††† 85.00†††† -2.20††††† 8.00††† 0.7250††††† 1††††† 4†† .2500†† 1.0728

†††† 85.00††††† 90.00††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†† 0.0000

†††† 90.00††††† 95.00††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†† 0.0000

†††† 95.00†††† 100.00††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†† 0.0000

††† 100.00†††† 105.00††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†† 0.0000

††† 105.00999999.00††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†† 0.0000

 

 

 

†††† By: PScore

 

††† >=Min†††††† <Max††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct†† Impact

†† -999.00†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†† 0.0000

††††† 0.00††††† 10.00††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†† 0.0000

†††† 10.00 †††††20.00††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†† 0.0000

†††† 20.00††††† 30.00†††† 26.40†††† 36.00††† 1.7333††††† 7†††† 18†† .3889†† 1.6688

†††† 30.00††††† 40.00††† -43.00††† 130.00††† 0.6692†††† 11†††† 65†† .1692†† 0.7262

†††† 40.00††††† 50.00††† -79.00††† 352.00††† 0.7756†††† 37††† 176†† .2102†† 0.9021

†††† 50.00††††† 60.00†††† 36.10††† 524.00††† 1.0689†††† 74††† 262†† .2824†† 1.2120

†††† 60.00††††† 70.00††† 135.20††† 790.00††† 1.1711††† 101††† 395†† .2557†† 1.0972

†††† 70.00††††† 80.00††† 79.90††† 888.00††† 1.0900††† 108††† 444†† .2432†† 1.0438

†††† 80.00††††† 90.00††† 112.40††† 814.00††† 1.1381††† 103††† 407†† .2531†† 1.0860

†††† 90.00†††† 100.00††† 117.20††† 808.00††† 1.1450†††† 97††† 404†† .2401†† 1.0303

††† 100.00†††† 110.00††† -82.20 †††714.00††† 0.8849†††† 68††† 357†† .1905†† 0.8174

††† 110.00†††† 120.00†††† 27.20††† 598.00††† 1.0455†††† 71††† 299†† .2375†† 1.0190

††† 120.00†††† 130.00††† -36.60††† 478.00††† 0.9234†††† 52††† 239†† .2176†† 0.9336

††† 130.00†††† 140.00††† 107.70††† 392.00††† 1.2747†††† 49††† 196†† .2500†† 1.0728

††† 140.00†††† 150.00†††† 25.30††† 344.00††† 1.0735†††† 40††† 172†† .2326†† 0.9979

††† 150.00†††† 160.00††† 152.60††† 302.00††† 1.5053†††† 36††† 151†† .2384†† 1.0230

††† 160.00†††† 170.00†††† 17.90††† 206.00††† 1.0869†††† 20††† 103†† .1942†† 0.8332

††† 170.00†††† 180.00††† -36.40††† 152.00††† 0.7605†††† 12†††† 76†† .1579†† 0.6775

††† 180.00999999.00†††† 21.60††† 668.00††† 1.0323†††† 69††† 334†† .2066†† 0.8865

 

 

 

 

†††† By: Field Size

 

†††† Field Size†††††† Gain†††††Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct††† Impact

††††††††††††† 1†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

††††††††††††† 2†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

††††††††††††† 3†††††† 1.60††††† 8.00††† 1.2000††††† 2††††† 4†† .5000†††† 2.1455

††††††††††††† 4†††††† 5.60†††† 50.00††† 1.1120†††† 11†††† 25†† .4400†††† 1.8881

††††††††††††† 5†††††† 5.20††† 448.00††† 1.0116†††† 71††† 224†† .3170†††† 1.3601

††††††††††††† 6††† -139.00†† 1182.00††† 0.8824††† 144††† 591†† .2437†††† 1.0455

††††††††††††† 7††††† 49.70†† 1482.00††† 1.0335††† 187††† 741†† .2524†††† 1.0829

††††††††††††† 8†††† 200.20†† 1494.00††† 1.1340††† 176††† 747†† .2356†††† 1.0110

††††††††††††† 9††††† 86.70†† 1178.00††† 1.0736††† 119††† 589 ††.2020†††† 0.8670

†††††††††††† 10†††† 205.10†† 1090.00††† 1.1882††† 119††† 545†† .2183†††† 0.9370

†††††††††††† 11††††† -0.70††† 520.00††† 0.9987†††† 50††† 260†† .1923†††† 0.8252

†††††††††††† 12†††† 106.90††† 638.00††† 1.1676†††† 66††† 319†† .2069†† ††0.8878

†††††††††††† 13†††††† 4.40†††† 48.00††† 1.0917††††† 4†††† 24†† .1667†††† 0.7152

†††††††††††† 14††††† 58.60†††† 56.00††† 2.0464††††† 6†††† 28†† .2143†††† 0.9195

†††††††††††† 15†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††††††††† 16†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††††††††† 17†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††††††††† 18†††††† 0.00††††† 0.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 0†† .0000†††† 0.0000

†††††††† ††††19+†††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†† .0000†††† 0.0000

 

 

 

†††† By: Race Volatility

 

†††† >=Min†††††† <Max††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct†† Impact

†† -999.00†††††† 0.00††† -20.20†††† 50.00††† 0.5960††††† 5†††† 25†† .2000†† 0.8582

††††† 0.00††††† 10.00†††† -1.20††††† 8.00††† 0.8500††††† 1††††† 4†† .2500†† 1.0728

†††† 10.00††††† 20.00†††† -6.40†††† 10.00††† 0.3600††††† 1††††† 5†† .2000†† 0.8582

†††† 20.00††††† 30.00†††† -4.40†††† 22.00††† 0.8000††††† 4†††† 11†† .36361.5604

†††† 30.00††††† 40.00†††† 38.80†††† 80.00††† 1.4850†††† 16†††† 40†† .4000†† 1.7164

†††† 40.00††††† 50.00††† -33.10††† 132.00††† 0.7492†††† 19†††† 66†† .2879†† 1.2353

†††† 50.00††††† 60.00†††† 62.50††† 298.00††† 1.2097†††† 55††† 149†† .3691†† 1.5840

†††† 60.00††††† 70.00††† -11.00††† 430.00††† 0.9744†††† 63††† 215†† .2930†† 1.2574

†††† 70.00††††† 80.00†††† 73.40††† 564.00††† 1.1301†††† 78††† 282†† .2766†† 1.1869

†††† 80.00††††† 90.00†††† -9.60††† 712.00††† 0.9865†††† 94††† 356†† .2640†† 1.1330

†††† 90.00†††† 100.00††† -43.40††† 820.00††† 0.9471†††† 89††† 410†† .2171†† 0.9315

††† 100.00†††† 110.00†††† 50.70††† 844.00††† 1.0601††† 106††† 422†† .2512†† 1.0779

††† 110.00†††† 120.00††† -59.40††† 760.00††† 0.9218†††† 73††† 380†† .1921†† 0.8243

††† 120.00†† ††130.00††† 148.20††† 690.00††† 1.2148†††† 81††† 345†† .2348†† 1.0075

††† 130.00†††† 140.00†††† 50.90††† 506.00††† 1.1006†††† 55††† 253†† .2174†† 0.9328

††† 140.00†††† 150.00††† 226.50††† 534.00††† 1.4242†††† 61††† 267†† .2285†† 0.9804

††† 150.00†††† 160.00†††† 36.30††† 480.00††† 1.0756†††† 42††† 240†† .1750†† 0.7509

††† 160.00†††† 170.00††† -68.70††† 344.00††† 0.8003†††† 29††† 172†† .1686†† 0.7235

††† 170.00†††† 180.00†††† 95.20††† 216.00††† 1.4407†††† 26††† 108†† .2407†† 1.0330

††† 180.00999999.00†††† 57.20††† 696.00††† 1.0822†††† 57††† 348†† .1638†† 0.7029

 

 

 

 

†††† By: MLOR3

 

†††† >=Min†††††† <Max††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct†† Impact

†† -999.00†††††† 0.50††††† 1.80††††† 2.00††† 1.9000††††† 1††††† 11.0000†† 4.2911

††††† 0.50††† †††0.55†††† -2.00††††† 2.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 1†† .0000†† 0.0000

††††† 0.55†††††† 0.60†††† -3.80†††† 10.00††† 0.6200††††† 1††††† 5†† .2000†† 0.8582

††††† 0.60†††††† 0.65†††† -2.60†††† 18.00††† 0.8556††††† 3††††† 9†† .3333†† 1.4304

††††† 0.65†††††† 0.70††† -14.00†††† 14.00††† 0.0000††††† 0††††† 7†† .0000†† 0.0000

††††† 0.70†††††† 0.75††††† 5.40†††† 32.00††† 1.1688††††† 6†††† 16†† .3750†† 1.6092

††††† 0.75†††††† 0.80††† -11.60†††† 64.00††† 0.8188††††† 8†††† 32†† .2500†† 1.0728

††††† 0.80†††††† 0.85†††† -8.40†††† 60.00††† 0.8600††††† 7†††† 30†† .2333†† 1.0013

††††† 0.85†††††† 0.90††† -11.70†††† 92.00††† 0.8728†††† 12†††† 46†† .2609†† 1.1194

††††† 0.90†††††† 0.95†††† 16.30†††† 98.00††† 1.1663†††† 13†††† 49†† .2653†† 1.1385

††††† 0.95†††††† 1.00††† -15.70††† 102.00††† 0.8461†††† 13†††† 51†† .2549†† 1.0938

††††† 1.00†††††† 1.05†††† 31.00††† 136.00††† 1.2279†††† 21†††† 68†† .3088†† 1.3252

††††† 1.05†††††† 1.10†††† 15.50††† 136.00††† 1.1140†††† 19†††† 68†† .2794†† 1.1990

††††† 1.10†††††† 1.15††† -24.80††† 154.00 †††0.8390†††† 18†††† 77†† .2338†† 1.0031

††††† 1.15†††††† 1.20††† -48.60††† 160.00††† 0.6962†††† 17†††† 80†† .2125†† 0.9119

††††† 1.20†††††† 1.25††† -17.70††† 160.00††† 0.8894†††† 20†††† 80†† .2500†† 1.0728

††††† 1.25†††††† 1.30†††† -7.80††† 170.00††† 0.9541†††† 22†††† 85†† .2588†† 1.1106

††††† 1.30†††††† 1.35††††† 0.20††† 174.00††† 1.0011†††† 26†††† 87†† .2989†† 1.2824

††††† 1.35†††††† 1.40†††† 84.50††† 192.00††† 1.4401†††† 31†††† 96†† .3229†† 1.3857

††††† 1.40999999.00††† 596.30†† 6420.00††† 1.0929††† 717†† 3210†† .2234†† 0.9585

 

 

 

 

 

†††† By: MLOR4

 

†††† >=Min†††††† <Max††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct†† Impact

†† -999.00†††††† 0.50††† -10.40††† 228.00††† 0.9544†††† 56††† 114†† .4912†† 2.1079

††††† 0.50†††††† 0.55††† -19.00††† 106.00 †††0.8208†††† 19†††† 53†† .3585†† 1.5383

††††† 0.55†††††† 0.60†††† 12.60††† 158.00††† 1.0797†††† 34†††† 79†† .4304†† 1.8468

††††† 0.60†††††† 0.65†††† 24.60††† 170.00††† 1.1447†††† 39†††† 85†† .4588†† 1.9689

††††† 0.65†††††† 0.70††††† 8.80††† 138.00††† 1.0638†††† 28†††† 69†† .4058†† 1.7413

††††† 0.70†††††† 0.75††† -29.40††† 190.00††† 0.8453†††† 29†††† 95†† .3053†† 1.3099

††††† 0.75†††††† 0.80††† -48.80††† 196.00††† 0.7510†††† 26†††† 98†† .2653†† 1.1385

††††† 0.80†††††† 0.85†††† -6.20††† 222.00††† 0.9721†††† 36††† 111†† .3243†† 1.3917

††††† 0.85†††††† 0.90††† -22.30††† 212.00††† 0.8948†††† 29††† 106†† .2736†† 1.1740

††††† 0.90†††††† 0.95†††† -8.00††† 202.00††† 0.9604†††† 31††† 101†† .3069†† 1.3171

††††† 0.95†††††† 1.00†††† 12.00††† 222.00††† 1.0541†††† 38††† 111†† .3423†† 1.4690

††††† 1.00†††††† 1.05††† -19.80††† 200.00††† 0.9010†††† 26††† 100†† .2600†† 1.1157

††††† 1.05†††††† 1.10††† -27.20††† 206.00††† 0.8680†††† 25††† 103†† .2427†† 1.0415

††††† 1.10†††††† 1.15†††† 32.80††† 210.00††† 1.1562†††† 35††† 105†† .3333†† 1.4304

††††† 1.15†††††† 1.20††† -12.80††† 186.00††† 0.9312†††† 23†††† 93†† .2473†† 1.0612

††††† 1.20†††††† 1.25†††† 41.20††† 212.00††† 1.1943†††† 34††† 106†† .3208†† 1.3764

††††† 1.25†††††† 1.30†††† 16.80††† 202.00††† 1.0832†††† 28††† 101†† .27721.1896

††††† 1.30†††††† 1.35†††† 45.00††† 190.00††† 1.2368†††† 29†††† 95†† .3053†† 1.3099

††††† 1.35†††††† 1.40†††† 14.10††† 152.00††† 1.0928†††† 21†††† 76†† .2763†† 1.1857

††††† 1.40999999.00††† 578.30†† 4594.00††† 1.1259††† 369†† 2297†† .1606†† 0.6893

 

 

 

 

†††† By: OR3

 

†††† >=Min†††††† <Max††††† Gain†††††† Bet†††††† Roi†† WinsPlays†††† Pct†† Impact

†† -999.00†††††† 0.50†††† -8.60†††† 46.00††† 0.8130†††† 11†††† 23†† .4783†† 2.0523

††††† 0.50†††††† 0.55††† -18.60†††† 34.00††† 0.4529††††† 4†††† 17†† .2353†† 1.0097

††††† 0.55†††††† 0.60††† -20.20†††† 70.00††† 0.7114†††† 11†††† 35†† .3143†† 1.3486

††††† 0.60†††††† 0.65†††† -4.90††† 106.00††† 0.9538†††† 19†††† 53†† .3585†† 1.5383

††††† 0.65†††††† 0.70††† -35.50††† 220.00††† 0.8386†††† 36††† 110†† .32731.4044

††††† 0.70†††††† 0.75†††† 69.10††† 340.00††† 1.2032†††† 69††† 170†† .4059†† 1.7417

††††† 0.75†††††† 0.80††† -20.10††† 466.00††† 0.9569†††† 73††† 233†† .3133†† 1.3444

††††† 0.80†††††† 0.85†††† 13.00††† 466.00††† 1.0279†††† 69††† 233†† .2961†† 1.2708

††††† 0.85†††††† 0.90†††† 16.30††† 516.00††† 1.0316†††† 75††† 258†† .2907†† 1.2474

††††† 0.90†††††† 0.95††† -44.70††† 576.00††† 0.9224†††† 71††† 288†† .2465†† 1.0579

††††† 0.95†††††† 1.00†††† 30.90††† 556.00††† 1.0556†††† 78††† 278†† .2806†† 1.2040

††††† 1.00†††††† 1.05†††† 92.30††† 642.00††† 1.1438†††† 84††† 321†† .2617†† 1.1229

††††† 1.05†††††† 1.10††† -14.30††† 584.00††† 0.9755†††† 65††† 292†† .2226†† 0.9552

††††† 1.10†††††† 1.15†††† 48.90††† 558.00††† 1.0876†††† 58††† 279†† .2079†† 0.8921

††††† 1.15†† ††††1.20†††† 87.60††† 442.00††† 1.1982†††† 47††† 221†† .2127†† 0.9126

††††† 1.20†††††† 1.25†††† 57.10††† 408.00††† 1.1400†††† 36††† 204†† .1765†† 0.7573

††††† 1.25†††††† 1.30††† 118.70††† 332.00††† 1.3575†††† 38††† 166†† .2289†† 0.9823

††††† 1.30†††††† 1.35†††† 56.30††† 288.00††† 1.1955†††† 30††† 144†† .2083†† 0.8940

††††† 1.35†††††† 1.40††††† 4.00††† 208.00††† 1.0192†††† 13††† 104†† .1250†† 0.5364

††††† 1.40999999.00††† 155.00†† 1338.00††† 1.1158†††† 68††† 669†† .1016†† 0.4362

 

 

 

 

STEP 6

Pick cutoffs for one or more value based factors. Use the UDM Wizard where possible to set cutoffs for factors that are available before the odds are known such as JPROfMLFav1, MLOR3, PScore, Field Size, and Race Volatility. Use the BettingInstructions Field in the UDM Wizard to write yourself short notes for factor cutoffs that are only available after the odds are known such as MLOR4 and OR3.

 

STEP 7

Validate the UDM by running it through the Data Window using a Validation Sample. There are no hard and fast rules here. The main idea is to confront the UDM with fresh races that were not present in the database used during UDM development and verify that the UDM does in fact appear to perform well going forward. I use quarterly databases. I like to develop a UDM using older data from a prior quarter or year and validate against a quarter that came later time-wise such as the current quarter. Move on to STEP 8 only after youíve seen the UDM perform well going forward against a validation database.

 

STEP 8

Pick a strategy for live play. Use the System Definitions Screen to dial in Overlay Highlighting for MLOR3 and OR3. Consider using the Live Play Module as a tool to aid you in play or pass decision making once your own Overlay Highlighting settings have been dialed in. Continue to monitor the performance of the UDM Ė and tune it accordingly Ė as you move forward with live play.

 

 

SUMMARY

In this document Iíve presented some of my own observations about why hidden and obvious positives exist despite the overall inherent efficiency of the pari-mutuel pools. Hopefully my strategies for exploiting them during UDM (and UPR) construction make sense to you after reading this document.

 

Four maxims for successful positive expectation UDMs and UPR:

 

  1. Use factors that emphasize horses with hidden positives.
  2. Use factors to avoid horses with obvious positives.
  3. Use factors that emphasize value.
  4. Validate your UDMs against a validation sample before moving on to live play.

 

Depending on the number of JCapper2007 program copies sold, there may well come a time when a simple JPR Rank=1 UDM like the one presented here will no longer be effective. When that day comes I guarantee you that the concepts presented within this document will still be valid. As long as you are willing to do the work you will be able to use these same concepts to create successful models using factors other than JPR.

 

It is my sincerest hope that after reading this document you will be well on your way to using JCapper2007 to find an edge of your own.

 

 

 

Jeff Platt

June 01, 2007