Finding an Edge
Author: Jeff Platt
Date Last Modified: 10/ 01/ 2007
INTRODUCTION
I wanted
to do a write up on finding an edge. Over the past several weeks I've had a number
of lengthy phone conversations with new users taking the Demo for the first
time. Many of them have tried other computer programs in the past only to be
disappointed. Some were disappointed with JCapper2007 too. Not because
JCapper2007 couldn't produce for them. Clearly it can - if they were only
willing to give it a serious workout.
If
feedback from users abandoning the demo is accurate, the number one reason I
have heard over and over is that the program is just far more complicated than
what they expected it to be. To quote one user who gave up within the first 30
minutes: "I'm looking for a program to help me handicap. I'm not
interested in learning how to write computer language."
New users
are amazed to discover that performing Data Window research and determining
first hand which (if any) from among the hundreds of available factors (and
unlimited combinations of factors) that might lead to profitable play takes a
real time commitment on their part. They are also amazed to discover that taking
information discovered during Data Window research and modeling that
information into UDMs and testing those UDMs against a development database and
then verifying the performance of those UDMs against a validation database
before going forward with live play... wait a minute… that's not handicapping… Noooo… That sounds like work too.
Hey. I
never said learning to win was easy. The simple truth is getting to where I'm
at now was a decades long journey. Trying to impart my own knowledge and
experiences gained on that journey to those just starting out is no easy task.
But I'm
going to try anyway. You see I believe winning is a skill that can be learned.
And if it can be learned then it can be taught.
A lot of
beginning players are naive. They’ve heard and read some really good things
about the original JCapper. Some of them think of the JRating as a magic number
where all they have to do is bet the top ranked horse and rake in the dollars.
In a sense that was true. Before I let the first person other than myself see a
copy of JCapper the top ranked JRating horse nationwide was producing a flat
bet win roi of more than .97 to $1.00. Right now it looks like things have
stabilized to where the top ranked JRating horse is returning a flat bet win
roi of about .928 to $1.00... That’s just under break even if you factor in a 7
percent rebate. Imagine that.
When I
decided on the factor mix for JPR that was going into JCapper2007 I wanted to
avoid tempting someone with a large bankroll into just blindly hammering JPR
horses at the windows like had previously been the case with JRating horses.
The JPR algorithm I decided to use has historically produced a flat bet win roi
of about .91 to $1.00. I realize it's very early in the game. As I write this
JPR has only been out for about 10 weeks now but those numbers seem to be
holding up pretty solidly.
What a
losing player seeking to become a winning player needs to realize is that
winning isn't about finding some magic number. Yes. Good numbers help. They are
easier to work with than bad numbers. But winning
is really about discipline and hard work. It's about finding an edge - and
then carrying that edge into the long run.
I'll save
the subject of carrying an edge into the long run for another time. This
article is about using JCapper2007 to find an edge of your own.
THE NATURE OF THE GAME
Horse
race betting is pari-mutuel in nature. That means that the more money bet on an
individual horse the lower the odds. It has been said that the betting public
makes a pretty good opponent. No, I’m not talking about each individual bettor.
I’m talking about the collective intelligence of all bettors everywhere. As
each race is bet, tens of thousands of bettors each weigh and apply the dozen
or so (in some cases more) handicapping factors they think will shape the
outcome of the race at hand. Collectively, they reach, by my rough estimate,
somewhere between one and two million decision points as they handicap each
race. As long as there has been modern day thoroughbred racing, post time
favorites have won approximately 33 percent of all races. However, in recent
years, because average field size has been shrinking, the win percentage of
post time favorites has risen. My calendar year 2006 database shows that post
time favorites (with no attempt to break ties for post time favoritism) won
almost 35 percent of all races. 81.47 percent of all races were won by one of
the first four choices in the betting. That should tell you quite clearly that
quite a bit of collective intelligence exists in the odds.
All
right. So how does a beginning player take advantage of that?
UNDERSTANDING THE GAME
One of
the things that I was slow to realize is that one of the keys to becoming a winning
player is getting an understanding of what drives the betting in the first
place. For various reasons, the overwhelming majority of bettors consistently
factor Speed Figures into their decision making process at some point. Because
of this, most of the time, horses with high speed figures relative to the rest
of the field tend to attract most of the money in the betting. In recent years,
for various reasons, bettors have become very much aware of trainer records.
Because of this, whenever a big name trainer enters a horse into a race, that
horse is also likely to attract its share of the money in the betting. Same
thing can be said about jockeys. Quite often, the betting public overreacts to
a rider considered to be a better rider than those he (or she) is competing
against by betting a disproportionate amount of money on that rider’s horse.
What about class? Again, the betting public is very much aware that a horse
dropping in class today is likely to run an improved performance compared to
its most recent start. So class droppers tend to get bet. Same thing can be
said about finish position. Horses that finished in the money (first, second,
or third) in their most recent starts tend to attract more money than horses
that finished up the track.
It should
be obvious at this point. The key to becoming a winning player lies in
understanding how the public bets and acting accordingly. The winning player
has to know how to avoid horses that are over bet and identify and play horses
that are under bet.
I’m going
to introduce three maxims:
1.
Modern thoroughbred pari-mutuel pools are efficient by nature.
2. Horses with obvious positives in their past performance
records will almost always be over bet.
3. Horses with hidden positives in their past performance
records will sometimes be under bet.
The trick
to winning then is really being able to identify horses with hidden positives
in their past performance records and betting on them yourself only when you
know that the public is under betting them.
HIDDEN POSITIVES
In this
next section I’m going to cover some common hidden positives. These are things
that you can find in a horse’s past performance record that are frequently
overlooked by the betting public. As such, these areas can make really good
starting points for UDMs and UPR for the savvy player.
Note: All data in the charts
presented below are from my own calendar year 2006 database which was compiled
using $1.00 Bris Single Format DRF data files. TSN file users will see similar
but slightly different results.
EARLY SPEED
I first
started using a computer to perform my own research and analyze thoroughbred
racing data back in 1985. Before that I did calculations manually and kept hand
written records in notebooks. One of the very first things I noticed about the
winning percentages of different factors was that final time was more
predictive than early speed. So it seemed perfectly logical to me as a bettor
that I should give final time based speed factors more weight in my
handicapping than early speed. What I didn’t realize at the time was the way
the public bets the races. The betting public always has been very much aware
that final time produces higher win percentages than early speed or early pace.
As long as I’ve been following racing the public has always had a tendency to
overemphasize final time and late speed when they bet the majority of the
races. At the same they have always had a counter tendency: they consistently
under bet early speed. That same general betting pattern is still prevalent
today. This discovery was one of many that lead me in the right direction – and
ultimately put me on the path to becoming a winning player.
JCapper
has a number of factors that reflect a horse’s early speed ability. CPace,
AVGE1, BestE2, PctE, PaceFig, TurnTime, V1, and several others all can be used
in UDMs to identify (and exclude) horses with early speed. Here in this
document I’m only going to cover CPace, BestE2, and 2FPace Fig (Last Start.)
CPace
By: CPace Rank
(2006)
Rank Gain
Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
Impact
1 -3887.30 50402.00 0.9229
5442 25201 .2159
1.7437
2 -8310.90 50298.00 0.8348
4250 25149 .1690
1.3646
3 -8864.10 50344.00 0.8239
3720 25172 .1478
1.1933
4 -10202.10 50298.00
0.7972 3166 25149
.1259 1.0166
5 -13914.90 49820.00
0.7207 2622 24910
.1053 0.8500
6 -13153.70 46756.00
0.7187 2222 23378
.0950 0.7675
7 -13780.10 39054.00
0.6472 1605 19527
.0822 0.6637
8 -9921.90 28840.00 0.6560
1029 14420 .0714
0.5762
9 -7619.60 19580.00 0.6108
638 9790 .0652
0.5262
10 -4685.20 12616.00 0.6286
370 6308 .0587
0.4736
11 -2751.90
6834.00 0.5973 173
3417 .0506 0.4088
12 -1681.80
3394.00 0.5045 66
1697 .0389 0.3141
13 -113.20
484.00 0.7661 12
242 .0496 0.4004
14 193.00
200.00 1.9650 6
100 .0600 0.4845
15 -2.00
2.00 0.0000 0
1 .0000 0.0000
16 -2.00
2.00 0.0000 0
1 .0000 0.0000
17 -2.00
2.00 0.0000 0
1 .0000 0.0000
18 -2.00
2.00 0.0000 0
1 .0000 0.0000
19+ -4.00
4.00 0.0000 0
2 .0000 0.0000
BestE2
By: Best E2
Rank
Rank Gain Bet
Roi Wins Plays Pct
Impact
1 -7322.80 61148.00 0.8802
6168 30574 .2017
1.6330
2 -9241.70 53152.00 0.8261
4291 26576 .1615
1.3070
3 -9237.60 50980.00 0.8188
3587 25490 .1407
1.1391
4 -11326.30 50100.00
0.7739 2990 25050
.1194 0.9662
5 -13677.50 48408.00
0.7175 2538 24204
.1049 0.8488
6 -12422.60 44136.00
0.7185 2032 22068
.0921 0.7453
7 -10254.80 35834.00
0.7138 1456 17917
.0813 0.6578
8 -9352.40 25486.00 0.6330
893 12743 .0701
0.5673
9 -5748.60 17136.00 0.6645
557 8568 .0650
0.5262
10 -3943.30 10344.00 0.6188
279 5172 .0539
0.4367
11 -1538.10
4918.00 0.6873 127
2459 .0516 0.4181
12 -674.70
2328.00 0.7102 63
1164 .0541 0.4381
13 -91.90
490.00 0.8124 9
245 .0367 0.2974
14 41.00
214.00 1.1916 7
107 .0654 0.5296
15 0.00
0.00
0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.0000
16 -2.00
2.00 0.0000 0
1 .0000 0.0000
17 -4.00
4.00 0.0000 0
2 .0000 0.0000
18 0.00
0.00
0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.0000
19+ -4.00
4.00 0.0000 0
2 .0000 0.0000
2F Pace Fig (Last Start)
By: 73 rankForPaceFig_2F_InLast
Rank Gain Bet
Roi Wins Plays Pct
Impact
1 -7205.30 56844.00 0.8732
5324 28422 .1873
1.5163
2 -10410.70 52914.00
0.8033 4096 26457
.1548 1.2532
3 -11074.70 51246.00
0.7839 3534 25623
.1379 1.1164
4 -11756.90 50578.00
0.7675 3178 25289
.1257 1.0172
5 -14332.70 48990.00
0.7074 2664 24495
.1088 0.8803
6 -11134.90 44726.00
0.7510 2293 22363
.1025 0.8300
7 -10875.10 36390.00
0.7012 1641 18195
.0902 0.7301
8 -7821.70 26544.00 0.7053
1060 13272 .0799
0.6465
9 -4975.50 17432.00 0.7146
638 8716 .0732
0.5925
10 -3029.30 10772.00 0.7188
345 5386 .0641
0.5185
11 -1570.90
5152.00 0.6951 149
2576 .0578 0.4682
12 -432.00
2354.00 0.8165 59
1177 .0501 0.4058
13 30.20
510.00 1.0592 14
255 .0549 0.4444
14 -199.80
220.00 0.0918 2
110 .0182 0.1472
15 -2.00
2.00 0.0000 0
1 .0000 0.0000
16 -4.00
4.00 0.0000 0
2 .0000 0.0000
17 0.00
0.00
0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.0000
18 -2.00
2.00 0.0000 0
1 .0000 0.0000
19+ -4.00
4.00 0.0000 0
2 .0000 0.0000
I want
you to take note of the win rates and flat win bet roi of the top ranked horses
for all three of these factors. Then scroll down below and compare them to the
win rates and flat bet win roi of the top ranked horses for their corresponding
final time based speed figure or late pace factor counterparts. Compare CPace
to CFA. Compare BestE2 to Bris Speed Figure (Best of Last 10.) Compare 2F Pace
Call (Last Start) to both Bris Speed Figure (Last Start) and Late Pace (Last
Line.)
Statistically,
final time based speed figures produce a higher win rate. But as long as I’ve
been compiling statistics on racing early speed based factors have always
produced a higher flat bet win roi than their final time based counterparts.
SPEED FIGURES
The
charts below show actual Data Window output for several different final time
based speed figure categories. There are a few things I want to point out.
First, the betting public overemphasizes the last line of a horse’s past
performance record. This can be evidenced by comparing the flat bet win roi of
top ranked Bris Speed Figure (Last Race) horses against flat bet win roi of
Bris Speed Figure (Best of Last 10) horses. In almost any pace line selection
method I have ever tested, giving the last line a lower weight than the best
line produces a higher flat bet win roi for the model being developed.
A second
thing I want to point out has to do with the value of proprietary information.
Take a look at the flat bet win roi of the top ranked JCapper Weighted Figure
and compare it to the flat bet win roi of the Bris Speed Figure. Bris makes a
more accurate (predictive) speed figure than the JCapper Weighted Figure. But
the JCapper Weighted Figure factors in a horse’s early speed ability to produce
a higher roi.
Finally,
take a look at CFA. CFA is the result of a JCapper algorithm where
representative pace lines (speed figures – both JCapper Weighted and Bris) are
selected from a horse’s past performance record and then crunched into a final
number. CFA is both more predictive and produces a higher flat bet win roi than
Bris Speed Figures do.
CFA
Rank Gain Bet
Roi Wins Plays Pct
Impact
1 -5663.70 50984.00 0.8889
6710 25492 .2632
2.1255
2 -6563.60 51300.00 0.8721
4971 25650 .1938
1.5649
3 -10556.80 51908.00
0.7966 3772 25954
.1453 1.1736
4 -12442.50 51888.00
0.7602 2951 25944
.1137 0.9185
5 -13228.30 51592.00
0.7436 2485 25796
.0963 0.7779
6 -13875.30 47038.00
0.7050 1782 23519
.0758 0.6118
7 -13860.50 38756.00
0.6424 1149 19378
.0593 0.4788
8 -9049.10 27586.00 0.6720
712 13793 .0516
0.4168
9 -5613.60 18158.00 0.6908
432 9079 .0476
0.3842
10 -3861.30 10966.00 0.6479
227 5483 .0414
0.3343
11 -2753.70
6044.00 0.5444 101
3022 .0334
0.2699
12 -1350.00
2280.00 0.4079 22
1140 .0193 0.1558
13 114.30
320.00 1.3572 5
160 .0312 0.2523
14 -92.20
100.00 0.0780 1
50 .0200 0.1615
15
-2.00 2.00 0.0000
0 1 .0000
0.0000
16 96.60
6.00 17.1000 1
3 .3333 2.6917
17 0.00
0.00
0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.0000
18 0.00
0.00
0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.0000
19 -4.00
4.00 0.0000 0
2 .0000 0.0000
WEIGHTED FIGURE
By: Weighted Figure Rank
Rank Gain Bet
Roi Wins Plays Pct
Impact
1 -6161.80 50638.00 0.8783
5768 25319 .2278
1.8441
2 -9964.50 50822.00 0.8039
4267 25411 .1679
1.3592
3 -9371.90 50794.00 0.8155
3731 25397 .1469
1.1892
4 -12091.00 51486.00
0.7652 3071 25743
.1193 0.9656
5 -11761.70 50260.00
0.7660 2725 25130
.1084 0.8778
6 -12968.10 46570.00
0.7215 2054 23285
.0882 0.7140
7 -12366.70 37952.00
0.6741 1394 18976
.0735 0.5946
8 -8925.00 27766.00 0.6786
919 13883 .0662
0.5358
9 -4856.60 18384.00 0.7358
551 9192 .0599
0.4852
10 -2795.00 11292.00 0.7525
313 5646 .0554
0.4487
11 -2310.00
5402.00 0.5724 129
2701 .0478 0.3866
12 -1107.10
2514.00 0.5596 51
1257 .0406 0.3284
13 -140.50
544.00 0.7417 18
272 .0662 0.5357
14 31.80
240.00 1.1325 5
120 .0417 0.3373
15 -6.00
6.00 0.0000 0
3 .0000 0.0000
16 0.80
6.00 1.1333 1
3 .3333 2.6982
17 -2.00
2.00 0.0000 0
1 .0000 0.0000
18 -2.00
2.00 0.0000 0
1 .0000 0.0000
19 -4.00
4.00 0.0000 0
2 .0000 0.0000
Bris Speed Figure (Last Line)
By: 62 rankForLastRaceBrisFig
Rank Gain Bet
Roi Wins Plays Pct
Impact
1 -8624.70 56186.00 0.8465
7307 28093 .2601
2.1054
2 -9399.90 53124.00 0.8231
4731 26562 .1781
1.4418
3 -10190.60 51266.00
0.8012 3540 25633
.1381 1.1179
4 -12003.20 50714.00
0.7633 2792 25357
.1101 0.8913
5 -10991.10 49048.00
0.7759 2238 24524
.0913 0.7387
6 -11389.60 44708.00
0.7452 1719 22354
.0769 0.6225
7 -11160.00 36328.00
0.6928 1160 18164
.0639 0.5169
8 -9144.10 26602.00 0.6563
688 13301 .0517
0.4187
9 -4975.10 17592.00 0.7172
438 8796 .0498
0.4031
10 -4056.10 10764.00 0.6232
228 5382 .0424
0.3429
11 -1464.90
5134.00 0.7147 108
2567 .0421 0.3406
12 -1231.60
2418.00 0.4907 33
1209 .0273 0.2209
13 64.10
540.00 1.1187 14
270 .0519 0.4197
14 -218.50
244.00 0.1045 1
122 .0082 0.0663
15 -6.00
6.00 0.0000 0
3 .0000 0.0000
16 -2.00
2.00 0.0000 0
1 .0000 0.0000
17 -4.00
4.00 0.0000 0
2 .0000 0.0000
18 0.00
0.00
0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.0000
19 -4.00
4.00 0.0000 0
2 .0000 0.0000
Bris Speed Figure (Best of Last
10)
By: Bris Speed Figure Rank (Best of
Last 10)
Rank Gain Bet
Roi Wins Plays Pct
Impact
1 -8108.60 56982.00 0.8577
6917 28491 .2428
1.9652
2 -9410.80 54264.00 0.8266
4850 27132 .1788 1.4470
3 -9244.90 52022.00 0.8223
3889 26011 .1495
1.2103
4 -10056.20 51372.00
0.8042 2988 25686
.1163 0.9416
5 -10817.10 48850.00
0.7786 2329 24425
.0954 0.7719
6 -12728.40 44176.00
0.7119 1606 22088
.0727 0.5886
7 -11541.80 35444.00
0.6744 1079 17722
.0609 0.4928
8 -8968.20 25992.00 0.6550
648 12996 .0499
0.4036
9 -7308.20 17202.00 0.5752
356 8601
.0414 0.3350
10 -3049.30 10314.00 0.7044
210 5157 .0407
0.3296
11 -2162.30
5018.00 0.5691 86
2509 .0343 0.2775
12 -1019.20
2310.00 0.5588 27
1155 .0234 0.1892
13 -209.30
508.00 0.5880 9
254 .0354 0.2868
14 -173.00
226.00 0.2345 3
113 .0265 0.2149
15 0.00
0.00
0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.0000
16 0.00
0.00 0.0000
0 0 .0000
0.0000
17 0.00
0.00
0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.0000
18 0.00
0.00
0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.0000
19 -4.00
4.00 0.0000 0
2 .0000
0.0000
FORM
Current
Form is one key area where I have discovered the betting public is lacking in
when it comes to how they bet the races. JCapper has a number of form based
factors that you can use in your models. The charts below all very clearly
demonstrate that horses rated high in numerical form based factors frequently
have hidden positives in their past performance records that the public
consistently underestimates.
AFR
By: AFR Rank
Rank Gain Bet
Roi Wins Plays Pct
Impact
1 -5110.50 50654.00 0.8991
4928 25327 .1946
1.5712
2 -8723.00 50594.00 0.8276
4205 25297 .1662
1.3423
3 -8722.70 50518.00 0.8273
3742 25259 .1481 1.1963
4 -10393.10 50246.00
0.7932 3374 25123
.1343 1.0845
5 -12176.80 49202.00
0.7525 2977 24601
.1210 0.9772
6 -12999.70 46048.00
0.7177 2412 23024
.1048 0.8459
7 -13096.10 38730.00
0.6619 1608 19365
.0830 0.6705
8 -10116.70 28730.00
0.6479 1011 14365
.0704 0.5683
9 -6951.20 19510.00 0.6437
567 9755 .0581
0.4693
10 -5400.70 12782.00 0.5775
296 6391 .0463
0.3740
11 -2786.40
6970.00 0.6002 138
3485 .0396 0.3198
12 -1615.70
3748.00 0.5689 49
1874 .0261 0.2111
13 -356.50
660.00 0.4598 9
330 .0273 0.2202
14 -161.50
412.00 0.6080 4
206 .0194 0.1568
15 -56.00
56.00 0.0000 0
28 .0000 0.0000
16 -31.10
64.00 0.5141 1
32 .0312 0.2523
17 -2.00
2.00 0.0000 0
1 .0000 0.0000
18 -2.00
2.00 0.0000 0
1 .0000 0.0000
19 -4.00
4.00 0.0000 0
2 .0000 0.0000
WOBRILL
By: Workout Brilliance Rank (2006
1st time starters removed)
Rank Gain Bet
Roi Wins Plays Pct
Impact
1 -5593.80 56182.00 0.9004
4814 28091 .1714
1.3548
2 -10511.50 59542.00
0.8235 4374 29771
.1469 1.1615
3 -15458.50 59846.00
0.7417 3935 29923
.1315 1.0396
4 -14442.20 57026.00
0.7467 3475 28513
.1219 0.9635
5 -13060.60 48320.00
0.7297 2812 24160
.1164 0.9201
6 -10400.50 36826.00
0.7176 1926 18413
.1046 0.8269
7 -7379.00 25138.00 0.7065
1160 12569 .0923
0.7296
8 -3994.10 16048.00 0.7511
689 8024 .0859
0.6788
9 -3323.80
9454.00 0.6484 369
4727 .0781 0.6171
10 -1659.00
4966.00 0.6659 196
2483 .0789 0.6240
11 -835.10
2376.00 0.6485 65
1188 .0547 0.4325
12 -536.20
924.00 0.4197 19
462 .0411 0.3251
13 -73.50
156.00 0.5288 3
78 .0385 0.3041
14 -66.00
66.00 0.0000 0
33 .0000 0.0000