Database Handicapping Software- JCapper Finding the Playable Race
January, 2005


Finding the Playable Race
The vast majority of horseplayers today can be classified as speed and pace players. And the vast majority of those tend to spend a great deal of time and energy focusing on the speed and pace numbers themselves. Very often often they lose sight of something that can be every bit as important as speed and pace numbers: Finding the Playable Race. This article outlines a method of play where the tools in JCapper are used to identify playable as well as unplayable races.

JCapper contains some very good tools for separating playable races from non-playable races. Among them are: Field Size, PF1, PF2, Morning Line Race Low, and Race Volatility. Each will be discussed and Data Window examples of their use will be presented.

For purposes of this article, all data presented is from a sample of approximately 5600 dirt sprint races from my own database for the calendar year 2004.

Field Size
Field size is a simple count of the number of runners in a race. The larger the field, the greater the number of horses that must be analyzed, and the harder it becomes for the public (and us) to pick any one horse as the race winner.

The following table shows Data Window results for the top ranked JRating horse broken out by Field Size. Profit and Win Roi are decidedly higher in 11 horse fields and larger.

Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 10766.10 10551.00 10146.20
Bet -11236.00 -11236.00 -11236.00
Gain -469.90 -685.00 -1089.80
Wins 1524 2611 3311
Plays 5618 5618 5618
PCT .2713 .4648 .5894
ROI 0.9582 0.9390 0.9030
Avg Mut 7.06 4.04 3.06


FieldSize Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
1 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
2 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
3 0.80 8.00 1.1000 2 4 .5000
4 -20.60 100.00 0.7940 16 50 .3200
5 -145.90 690.00 0.7886 108 345 .3130
6 -116.70 1646.00 0.9291 262 823 .3183
7 -140.00 2272.00 0.9384 329 1136 .2896
8 -311.90 2036.00 0.8468 261 1018 .2564
9 99.00 1506.00 1.0657 193 753 .2563
10 -181.80 1168.00 0.8443 131 584 .2243
11 284.00 886.00 1.3205 115 443 .2596
12 51.20 844.00 1.0607 99 422 .2346
13 -21.20 52.00 0.5923 2 26 .0769
14 28.40 28.00 2.0143 4 14 .2857


PF1 and PF2
PF1 and PF2 are numbers in JCapper that stand for Prime Power Failure scores one and two. The logic behind the numbers is that Prime Power is a number seen and reacted to by a great number of bettors. The top Prime Power horse in a race is almost always overbet and therefore an underlay. As a general rule, it is a bad idea to try and bet the top Prime Power horse in the race to win. But, if we hope to cash a ticket on a different horse, we have to contend with, and beat, the top Prime Power horse in the race.

Fortunatley, not all top Prime Power horses are created equal. The following table shows Data Window results for the top Prime Power horse in each race broken out by PF1 and PF2. Win rate for the top Prime Power horse in the race is decidedly lower when those horses have low PF1 and PF2 scores.



Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 9591.20 9841.50 10005.60
Bet -11422.00 -11422.00 -11422.00
Gain -1830.80 -1580.50 -1416.40
Wins 1814 2935 3682
Plays 5711 5711 5711
PCT .3176 .5139 .6447
ROI 0.8397 0.8616 0.8760
Avg Mut 5.29 3.35 2.72


By: 100 pF1

Min Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
-999.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.00 9.99 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
10.00 19.99 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
20.00 29.99 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
30.00 39.99 0.00 10.00 0.0000 2 5 .4000
40.00 49.99 0.00 38.00 0.0000 4 19 .2105
50.00 59.99 -4.40 44.00 0.9000 5 22 .2273
60.00 69.99 -77.60 176.00 0.5591 16 88 .1818
70.00 79.99 10.80 384.00 1.0281 56 192 .2917
80.00 89.99 -247.40 1166.00 0.7878 147 583 .2521
90.00 99.99 -619.50 2900.00 0.7864 413 1450 .2848
100.00 109.99 -221.20 1952.00 0.8867 320 976 .3279
110.00 119.99 -700.60 4308.00 0.8374 738 2154 .3426
120.00 129.99 39.00 300.00 1.1300 80 150 .5333
130.00 139.99 -17.20 36.00 0.5222 5 18 .2778
140.00 149.99 -7.40 28.00 0.7357 5 14 .3571
150.00 159.99 -7.40 22.00 0.6636 4 11 .3636
160.00 169.99 -3.20 6.00 0.4667 1 3 .3333
170.00 179.99 -8.00 16.00 0.5000 2 8 .2500
180.00 9999.00 -2.40 32.00 0.9250 6 16 .3750


By: 101 pF2

Min Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
-999.00 70.00 -88.20 294.00 0.7000 31 147 .2109
70.00 74.99 31.20 150.00 1.2080 25 75 .3333
75.00 79.99 -34.90 262.00 0.8668 31 131 .2366
80.00 84.99 -41.50 356.00 0.8834 44 178 .2472
85.00 89.99 -157.90 600.00 0.7368 67 300 .2233
90.00 94.99 -227.60 1144.00 0.8010 165 572 .2885
95.00 99.99 -309.80 1828.00 0.8305 268 914 .2932
100.00 104.99 -372.60 2008.00 0.8144 320 1004 .3187
105.00 109.99 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
110.00 114.99 -520.30 3174.00 0.8361 525 1587 .3308
115.00 119.99 -146.40 1128.00 0.8702 212 564 .3759
120.00 124.99 40.90 260.00 1.1573 74 130 .5692
125.00 129.99 4.60 68.00 1.0676 19 34 .5588
130.00 134.99 -26.00 26.00 0.0000 0 13 .0000
135.00 139.99 11.40 8.00 2.4250 4 4 1.0000
140.00 144.99 -3.20 18.00 0.8222 4 9 .4444
145.00 149.99 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000
150.00 154.99 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000
155.00 159.99 -5.40 20.00 0.7300 4 10 .4000
160.00 9999.00 -13.60 54.00 0.7481 9 27 .3333


Morning Line Race Low
Another horse we must contend with in a race is the Morning Line Favorite. Again, it is generally a bad idea to try and bet the Morning Line Favorite to win because these horses are almost always overbet and therefore underlays. But not all Morning Line Favorites are created equal. There is a correalation between the odds set by the morning line oddsmaker and actual win percentage. The lower the Morning Line odds of the Morning Line Favorite, the higher the win percentage. The following table illustrates this quite clearly.

Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 9654.40 9964.80 9950.30
Bet -11568.00 -11568.00 -11568.00
Gain -1913.60 -1603.20 -1617.70
Wins 1887 3060 3760
Plays 5784 5784 5784
PCT .3262 .5290 .6501
ROI 0.8346 0.8614 0.8602
Avg Mut 5.12 3.26 2.65


By: Morning Line

Min Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
-999.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.00 0.99 -49.20 226.00 0.7823 46 113 .4071
1.00 1.99 -453.70 2860.00 0.8414 601 1430 .4203
2.00 2.99 -705.40 4950.00 0.8575 789 2475 .3188
3.00 3.99 -583.00 2966.00 0.8034 378 1483 .2549
4.00 4.99 -167.90 486.00 0.6545 47 243 .1934
5.00 5.99 -11.00 62.00 0.8226 8 31 .2581
6.00 6.99 -4.00 18.00 0.7778 2 9 .2222
7.00 7.99 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000



It therefore follows that as a general rule win bets the top JRating horse in a race should be more profitable in races where the Morning Line odds of the Morning Line Favorite are higher rather than lower. The following table illustrates this quite clearly.

Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 10766.10 10551.00 10146.20
Bet -11236.00 -11236.00 -11236.00
Gain -469.90 -685.00 -1089.80
Wins 1524 2611 3311
Plays 5618 5618 5618
PCT .2713 .4648 .5894
ROI 0.9582 0.9390 0.9030
Avg Mut 7.06 4.04 3.06


By: Morning Line (Low for Race)

Min Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
-999.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.00 0.49 7.00 12.00 1.5833 4 6 .6667
0.50 0.99 -16.80 126.00 0.8667 32 63 .5079
1.00 1.49 -154.00 784.00 0.8036 138 392 .3520
1.50 1.99 -94.40 2018.00 0.9532 329 1009 .3261
2.00 2.49 -46.50 1914.00 0.9757 273 957 .2853
2.50 2.99 -252.20 2916.00 0.9135 369 1458 .2531
3.00 3.49 26.80 2124.00 1.0126 246 1062 .2316
3.50 3.99 -94.30 812.00 0.8839 70 406 .1724
4.00 4.49 104.70 428.00 1.2446 45 214 .2103
4.50 4.99 -4.60 38.00 0.8789 4 19 .2105
5.00 5.49 52.40 56.00 1.9357 11 28 .3929
5.50 5.99 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
6.00 6.49 -2.80 8.00 0.6500 1 4 .2500



Race Volatility
Race Volatility in JCapper combines Field Size, the PF1 and PF2 of the top Prime Power horse in the race, and the odds of the Morning Line favorite in the race into a single number that often indicates the amount of volatility or chaos present in the race. The higher the Race Volatility score, the greater the degree of uncertainty present in the race.

The following table shows Data Window results of Post Time Favorites broken out by Race Volatility. Favorites win a higher percentage of races where Race Volatility is low and a lower percentage of races where Race Volatility is high.

Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 9843.60 10428.80 10452.80
Bet -11838.00 -11838.00 -11838.00
Gain -1994.40 -1409.20 -1385.20
Wins 2100 3340 4035
Plays 5919 5919 5919
PCT .3548 .5643 .6817
ROI 0.8315 0.8810 0.8830
Avg Mut 4.69 3.12 2.59


By: Race Volatility

Min Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
-999.00 0.00 -2.20 68.00 0.9676 16 34 .4706
0.00 9.99 -1.60 26.00 0.9385 6 13 .4615
10.00 19.99 6.80 26.00 1.2615 9 13 .6923
20.00 29.99 1.00 36.00 1.0278 12 18 .6667
30.00 39.99 -4.30 116.00 0.9629 33 58 .5690
40.00 49.99 -17.30 292.00 0.9408 73 146 .5000
50.00 59.99 -84.00 514.00 0.8366 109 257 .4241
60.00 69.99 -134.40 886.00 0.8483 175 443 .3950
70.00 79.99 -221.00 1068.00 0.7931 200 534 .3745
80.00 89.99 -282.10 1154.00 0.7555 198 577 .3432
90.00 99.99 -101.80 1166.00 0.9127 221 583 .3791
100.00 109.99 -173.20 1160.00 0.8507 209 580 .3603
110.00 119.99 -247.40 1146.00 0.7841 185 573 .3229
120.00 129.99 -176.10 944.00 0.8135 151 472 .3199
130.00 139.99 -157.80 764.00 0.7935 121 382 .3168
140.00 149.99 -135.50 638.00 0.7876 98 319 .3072
150.00 159.99 -87.40 542.00 0.8387 83 271 .3063
160.00 169.99 -49.40 460.00 0.8926 74 230 .3217
170.00 179.99 -48.10 280.00 0.8282 39 140 .2786
180.00 9999.00 -150.80 548.00 0.7248 68 274 .2482




The Playable Race
The question then arises, which race types are better for us? High volatility races or low volatility races? Are we better off looking for races with low uncertainty or high uncertainty?

The following table shows Data Window results for the top JRating horse in the race broken out by Race Volatility. The pattern speaks for itself. High volatility races produce the best prices for JRating horses.

Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 10766.10 10551.00 10146.20
Bet -11236.00 -11236.00 -11236.00
Gain -469.90 -685.00 -1089.80
Wins 1524 2611 3311
Plays 5618 5618 5618
PCT .2713 .4648 .5894
ROI 0.9582 0.9390 0.9030
Avg Mut 7.06 4.04 3.06


By: Race Volatility

Min Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
-999.00 0.00 -21.60 62.00 0.6516 9 31 .2903
0.00 9.99 -7.00 26.00 0.7308 5 13 .3846
10.00 19.99 3.60 26.00 1.1385 8 13 .6154
20.00 29.99 -2.40 36.00 0.9333 11 18 .6111
30.00 39.99 28.50 116.00 1.2457 29 58 .5000
40.00 49.99 -36.40 290.00 0.8745 64 145 .4414
50.00 59.99 -63.20 496.00 0.8726 83 248 .3347
60.00 69.99 -93.30 812.00 0.8851 138 406 .3399
70.00 79.99 -133.90 1014.00 0.8679 162 507 .3195
80.00 89.99 -62.20 1106.00 0.9438 169 553 .3056
90.00 99.99 -148.20 1110.00 0.8665 160 555 .2883
100.00 109.99 -82.00 1080.00 0.9241 149 540 .2759
110.00 119.99 -188.00 1092.00 0.8278 117 546 .2143
120.00 129.99 -52.40 900.00 0.9418 89 450 .1978
130.00 139.99 -36.80 736.00 0.9500 88 368 .2391
140.00 149.99 141.70 604.00 1.2346 71 302 .2351
150.00 159.99 98.80 500.00 1.1976 60 250 .2400
160.00 169.99 47.90 430.00 1.1114 34 215 .1581
170.00 179.99 44.40 266.00 1.1669 28 133 .2105
180.00 9999.00 91.80 530.00 1.1732 48 265 .1811


Putting It All Together
Taking the concept one step further, what happens if we design a UDM to do two things? One, pick very logical contenders (the top JRating horse in the race.) And two, pick playable races (Race Volatility >= 140.) The following table shows results for all dirt sprints in my database for the calendar year 2004 where both those conditions are met.

UDM Definition:
Profile: DS_J1-RV140+
UDM Divisor: 999
Surface Req: D* Distance Req: S
Running Style: ALL
Race Volatility: MinVal= 140 MaxVal= 999
JRating: MinRank= 1 MaxRank= 1 MinVal= -999 MaxVal= 999 MinGap= -999 MaxGap= 999

Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999
Filters Applied:
Dirt (All*) SPRINTS (From Index File: F:\FALL_2004\pl_JRating_1_ytd.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 2754.60 2444.90 2283.70
Bet -2330.00 -2330.00 -2330.00
Gain 424.60 114.90 -46.30
Wins 241 431 586
Plays 1165 1165 1165
PCT .2069 .3700 .5030
ROI 1.1822 1.0493 0.9801
Avg Mut 11.43 5.67 3.90


By: Race Volatility

Min Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
-999.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.00 9.99 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
10.00 19.99 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
20.00 29.99 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
30.00 39.99 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
40.00 49.99 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
50.00 59.99 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
60.00 69.99 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
70.00 79.99 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
80.00 89.99 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
90.00 99.99 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
100.00 109.99 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
110.00 119.99 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
120.00 129.99 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
130.00 139.99 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
140.00 149.99 141.70 604.00 1.2346 71 302 .2351
150.00 159.99 98.80 500.00 1.1976 60 250 .2400
160.00 169.99 47.90 430.00 1.1114 34 215 .1581
170.00 179.99 44.40 266.00 1.1669 28 133 .2105
180.00 9999.00 91.80 530.00 1.1732 48 265 .1811


If you'd like to create your own UDMs using JRating and Race Volatility, you'll find both on the factors drop down in the UDM Wizard where you can set Min and Max values. You'll also find both in the Profile Table Interface- Complete View ALL and Complete View Active Profiles.

Until Next Month,

Happy Hunting,



jeff

jeff.platt@jcapper.com






Copyright 2005 JCapper Software